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What you need to know

Iran war enters a perilous endgame

Yesterday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. would leave Iran in two to three weeks and made clear that clearing or securing the Strait of Hormuz was not America’s responsibility.

The conflict now appears to be entering a new phase, in which U.S. and Israeli leaders suggest that their main military aims inside Iran may be close to completion, even as the economic and logistical effects continue to spread.

Inside Iran, the steel sector, a major pillar of the industrial economy, appears to have been badly damaged by Israeli strikes, while additional attacks overnight hit infrastructure including the Qeshm desalination plant.

Even so, or because of this, Tehran appears conditionally open to ending the war. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to end the conflict, but Iranian officials are demanding guarantees against renewed attacks and compensation for the damage.

The regional and global economic fallout is worsening. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with only seven vessels reported to have crossed in the previous 24 hours, while a tanker strike by Iran off Qatar highlights the continuing risk.

Energy and industrial supply disruptions are also intensifying, including jet-fuel shortages, helium force majeure in the U.S., and growing pressure on aviation networks. GCC air traffic has resumed, but only under degraded wartime conditions.

The war is therefore no longer simply a question of whether the U.S. and Israel can continue striking Iran. The more important question is whether they can turn battlefield superiority into a durable political outcome before the wider region, and the global economy, suffer deeper damage. The material here suggests that the military campaign inside Iran may be nearing its intended culmination: U.S. leaders have indicated a limited remaining timeline, Israeli and American air dominance appears uncontested, and Iran’s industrial and infrastructure base has taken heavy blows. But military success has not produced strategic closure. Tehran is indicating a willingness to stop the fighting only on terms that include guarantees, compensation, and an end to further attacks, while the Strait of Hormuz remains barely functional, aviation recovery is partial and fragile, and disruptions in fuel, helium, and shipping are spreading far beyond the immediate theater.

Secondary fronts in Lebanon and Iraq also remain active enough to prolong instability for the long term even if the main campaign inside Iran and in the Persian Gulf slows.

The central conclusion is that the conflict is shifting from a high-intensity war inside Iran to a contested and economically dangerous endgame, in which the greatest risks may come less from new offensives than from a failure to secure a stable settlement after apparent military success.

Even if the U.S. declares the mission accomplished and reduces or ends strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, Israel will likely continue periodic attacks to prevent the re-emergence of Iran’s missile or nuclear programs, while other international powers will still have to grapple with the Strait of Hormuz.

The ultimate complex system

UK seeks coalition to reopen Hormuz as fuel concern among world leaders grows

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the nation on Wednesday morning.

Starmer used his remarks to place Britain at the center of an emerging diplomatic effort to restore passage through the strait. He said Britain would host an international meeting this weekend focused on reopening the waterway and added that London had already contacted 35 countries in an attempt to assemble a broad coalition. The message suggested that Britain sees the disruption in Hormuz as too large and too globally consequential to be handled by any one country alone. It also implied growing concern that, unless maritime access is restored quickly, the effects will spread well beyond the Gulf.

In effect, Starmer was arguing that the battle over Hormuz is no longer a distant strategic contest, but a threat to the daily functioning of advanced economies. It’s a point we’ve been making for some weeks.

By contrast, Albanese’s remarks were far less substantial. The Australian prime minister offered little in the way of concrete policy and largely limited himself to urging Australians to be careful in their use of energy.

Attention will now turn to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is due to hold a press conference at 8:00 p.m. Given India’s total dependence on imported energy and its close interest in Gulf shipping lanes, his remarks may offer a clearer indication of whether major Asian powers are prepared to support a broader international effort to stabilize the strait.

Helium shortage deepens as Airgas cuts supply because of Iran war

Airgas, one of the largest industrial gas suppliers in the U.S., has declared force majeure amid the Iran war, warning at least one customer that it will supply only up to 50% of normal monthly helium volumes. The move points to mounting strain in a market already hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted a supply route linked to about 30% of global helium availability. The company has also told the customer it will impose a surcharge of $13.50 per hundred cubic feet above contracted prices, underlining how quickly the conflict is feeding into industrial costs.

The disruption matters far beyond the gas sector.

Helium is essential for a range of advanced industrial and technological uses, including semiconductor production, medical imaging, and high-performance computing infrastructure often associated with AI.

The logistical bottleneck is being compounded by the fact that hundreds of specialized cryogenic containers, each worth around $1m, are now stranded in the Middle East.

Together, the supply cuts, price surcharges, and immobilized equipment shows that the helium market will remain under severe pressure and increasing as long as the regional conflict continues to disrupt Gulf trade routes.

Move fast and break things

Trump heads to Supreme Court for birthright citizenship hearing

President Donald Trump is due to make a highly unusual, and possibly unprecedented, visit to the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday as the justices hear arguments over his administration’s attempt to restrict birthright citizenship. The case concerns an executive order Trump signed in January 2025 that would limit automatic citizenship for some children born on U.S. soil, challenging a long-established reading of the 14th Amendment. According to the Court’s docket and White House scheduling reported by U.S. media, Trump plans to attend the hearing in person. If he does, he would be the first sitting president officially recorded as attending Supreme Court oral arguments, highlighting both the legal importance of the case and Trump’s determination to press one of his most contentious immigration policies before the country’s highest court.

Trump moves to tighten mail-in voting

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on 31 March aimed at tightening mail-in voting, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick set out a system under which mailed ballots would be linked to trackable envelopes and distributed only through a more tightly controlled eligibility process. Under the order, the Department of Homeland Security, working with the Social Security Administration, would compile state-by-state citizenship lists for election officials, while the U.S. Postal Service would be encouraged to use ballot envelopes carrying unique Intelligent Mail barcodes, or similar tracking technology.

The order also states that USPS should not handle mail-in or absentee ballots unless voters are included on a state-specific participation list submitted through the new system. The change will not take effect at once. The White House directed the postmaster general to begin proposed rulemaking within 60 days, with any final rule due within 120 days. The measure quickly prompted threats of legal action from Democratic officials, voting-rights groups and election experts, who argue that the White House is seeking to impose federal rules on elections that are chiefly run by the states.

Trump suffers fresh legal blow in Jan. 6 civil cases

President Donald Trump suffered another setback on Tuesday in the long-running civil lawsuits over the Capitol attack of 6 January 2021. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Trump is not protected by presidential immunity for significant parts of the conduct in question, allowing cases brought by Democratic lawmakers and Capitol Police officers to continue toward trial. The court also declined to allow the federal government to replace Trump as the defendant on assault and battery claims under the Westfall Act, according to a statement from the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, which represents plaintiffs in one of the cases.

The decision is important because the Justice Department moved in March 2025 to protect Trump, arguing that he had acted within the scope of his office before and during the riot and that the U.S., rather than Trump personally, should bear responsibility for parts of the litigation. Tuesday’s ruling weakens that argument and preserves one of the last major efforts to hold Trump personally liable in court for the violence and disruption at the Capitol. Trump has denied wrongdoing and has maintained that his conduct fell within his official duties as president.

Monroe Doctrine with a Trump Corollary

Mexico signals defiance over Cuba oil policy

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico reserved the right to supply oil to Cuba for both humanitarian and commercial purposes, pushing back against U.S. pressure over fuel shipments to the island.

Her remarks came as Cuba grapples with a severe energy crisis and as Washington insisted that a recent waiver for a Russian tanker did not mark any broader easing of its sanctions policy.

The statement positions Mexico as one of the few countries openly willing to keep fuel flowing to Cuba despite the U.S. squeeze. Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, supplied nearly $500 million worth of crude and refined products to Cuba in 2025 under a standing commercial arrangement, while Russia has also resumed visible shipments, including a tanker that reached Cuba this week with U.S. humanitarian clearance.

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