Why does business news feel like it’s written for people who already get it?

Morning Brew changes that.

It’s a free newsletter that breaks down what’s going on in business, finance, and tech — clearly, quickly, and with enough personality to keep things interesting. The result? You don’t just skim headlines. You actually understand what’s going on.

Try it yourself and join over 4 million professionals reading daily.

Check it out

What you need to know

War on Iran enters a new more dangerous economic phase

The war on Iran is moving into a more dangerous and complex phase, in which military operations are increasingly entangled with energy, shipping, industrial supply chains and the internal stability of states across the region.

The U.S. and Israel still hold the operational advantage. They retain superior reach, deeper intelligence penetration and the ability to strike senior Iranian figures and critical infrastructure inside Iran.

But that battlefield edge has not produced strategic closure. Iran remains capable of imposing heavy costs through missile and drone attacks, pressure on Gulf infrastructure, maritime disruption and the activation of allied fronts in Iraq and Lebanon.

The clearest sign of escalation is the widening target set, now focusing on upstream oil and gas facilities. 

Israeli strikes on South Pars and Asaluyeh, followed by Iranian attacks on Gulf-linked hydrocarbon facilities, have pushed the war beyond the realm of conventional military targets and into the energy and industrial base of the Gulf.

That shift matters not only for oil prices, but for LNG, petrochemicals, fertilizers, helium supplies, power generation and maritime insurance. The war is no longer simply threatening the flow of crude. It is testing the wider regional and global economic system.

Iran, for its part, has suffered extraordinary leadership losses since the war began on 28 February. Among those reported killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes are Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, armed-forces chief Abdolrahim Mousavi, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani, Ali Shamkhani and Ali Larijani.

Even so, there is still no persuasive public evidence of a coup, cascading defections or institutional collapse.

The more immediate effect appears to be the opposite: a more tightly controlled and more heavily militarized system, in which the IRGC is consolidating decision-making as veteran political figures are removed. Iran’s command structure is battered, but it remains capable of coordinated retaliation.

That remains visible on the battlefield. Iranian rates of fire against the Gulf appear to be rising again from their recent low point, even if they remain below the scale of the first weekend’s salvos. The UAE said it intercepted 40 incoming weapons overnight, including 13 ballistic missiles and 27 drones. More alerts followed this morning.

Qatar has become one of the clearest illustrations of this shift. Iranian strikes caused significant damage at Ras Laffan, the country’s strategic gas hub, prompting QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on LNG shipments. Civil Defense later said the fires had been brought under control and no injuries were reported, though the full scale of the damage remains unclear. Qatar has since expelled Iranian military and security attaché personnel, while President Donald Trump publicly warned that any renewed attack on Qatar’s LNG facilities could trigger a much larger American response against South Pars.

The consequences are already spreading well beyond gas exports.

Ras Laffan is also central to global helium supply, because helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural-gas processing. Qatar is the world’s second-largest helium producer, accounting for roughly a third of global output. With Ras Laffan shut, the world is losing about 5.2m cubic meters of helium a month, in a market with almost no spare capacity. Prices have already doubled. A prolonged disruption would hit semiconductor manufacturing, MRI systems, scientific laboratories, deep-sea diving and parts of the chemical industry.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, the pattern is similar: successful interception in some cases, but still enough disruption to impose economic strain.

Iraq looks particularly vulnerable. Iranian gas imports have been halted completely, and Baghdad says the cutoff has already knocked about 3,100 megawatts from national generating capacity.

Because Iranian gas normally supports roughly one-third to 40% of Iraq’s gas-and-power needs, the interruption carries immediate implications for electricity supply. Drone and rocket attacks struck U.S. facilities near Baghdad International Airport, even as Kataib Hezbollah announced a temporary five-day pause in attacks on U.S. targets after negotiations with the Iraqi prime minister.

Lebanon is also becoming more deeply enmeshed in the war. Israeli strikes hit Al Amana fuel stations, which Israel says Hezbollah uses for logistical support, while the IDF has begun destroying bridges over the Litani River, further severing southern Lebanon from the rest of the country. Hezbollah, meanwhile, launched around 40 rockets into northern Israel last night. Israeli media reported that the prime minister and defense minister have now authorized the rapid killing of senior Iranian and Hezbollah figures whenever actionable intelligence exists, without waiting for further political approval.

At sea, the danger is growing. Reports that Iranian speedboats may be mining the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with an incident east of Qatar in which a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, have heightened concern over shipping. Major container lines are warning customers that they may leave cargo at the nearest available port rather than complete contracted journeys. For now, Hormuz remains contested rather than closed. But the possibility of a wider maritime shutdown is rising.

That is why this war now looks less like a conventional campaign and more like a struggle over whether the regional economic order can be made ungovernable at manageable cost.

For Israel, the war’s aims remain relatively narrow: reduce Iran’s missile and drone threat, degrade its infrastructure and preserve freedom of action for future strikes.

For the United States, the burden is heavier. Washington is not merely backing Israel; it is the external guarantor of Gulf security. Iran does not need to defeat America militarily to impose strategic failure. It need only sustain a pattern of intermittent but relentless pressure on Gulf infrastructure, shipping and investor confidence.

In that sense, the war is becoming one of attrition, in which the decisive question is not who can strike hardest, but who can endure longer without the wider regional system starting to fracture.

The most likely outcome remains a prolonged regional war of attrition: continued Iranian strikes on Gulf and Israeli targets, persistent instability in Iraq and Israeli advances in Lebanon, ongoing disruption to shipping and energy flows, and elevated market stress without total systemic collapse.

The best case would be a limited de-escalation in which pressure from markets, allies and military costs narrows the target set and allows partial recovery in LNG and shipping.

The worst case is a broader economic war in the Gulf, with repeated attacks on major Saudi, Qatari and Emirati facilities, a serious degradation of traffic through Hormuz, a possible closure of Bab al-Mandab and deepening Iraqi instability. That would turn a regional war into a deep global economic shock.

Israeli ground advances in Lebanon

Israeli forces appear to have made a series of cautious but meaningful advances along the southeastern Lebanese front in recent days, suggesting a broader consolidation of positions around Chebaa and al-Khiam.

On Daf esh-Sheikh, troops from the Israel Defence Forces’ 810th Mountain Brigade are reported to have occupied sections of the peak on the Lebanese side of the border before moving toward the eastern outskirts of Chebaa, where demolitions of chalets has begun. That points to an effort not merely to raid, but to reshape the immediate border environment.

Nearby, the Lebanese Army has also shifted its posture. After moving forward from its border positions around en-Nouqar, south of Chebaa, troops reportedly regrouped around the town entrance, the local pharmacy and the municipal building. That suggests Beirut is trying, at a minimum, to maintain a visible state presence as the frontline changes.

The more important fighting, however, appears to be in the highly strategic town of Khiam. Israeli forces are said to be pressing deeper into the town from the east and along roads on its far-eastern edge, while also moving into Jlahiye, al-Khiam’s northernmost neighborhood.

Israeli military footage released online appears to show the involvement of the 869th Field Intelligence Battalion, which falls under the 91st Territorial Division. That implies the 91st Division remains engaged in operations around Khiam even though its headquarters and much of its manpower have reportedly shifted toward the Bint Jbeil area.

The use of tanks may indicate that elements of the 7th Armored Brigade, part of the 36th Division, are involved in the advance. The other plausible possibility is that the 401st Armored Brigade of the 162nd Division has been split between al-Khiam and Ayta ash-Shab. Hezbollah, for its part, now effectively acknowledges an Israeli presence inside al-Khiam, though it says it has repelled an Israeli attempt to push beyond the detention center.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

DNI warns broader group of states can now threaten American homeland

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said on 18 March that the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan are all developing missile systems capable of putting the United States within range.

The statement expands the perceived threat well beyond the usual focus on Russia, China and North Korea.

The importance of the assessment lies both in the countries named and in the scale of the warning.

The report says threats to the U.S. homeland are projected to rise to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, up from more than 3,000 now. It adds that North Korea has already tested intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the entire U.S. homeland. It also says that Iran, before recent U.S. strikes, had developed space-launch vehicles that could have supported a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035, had Tehran chosen to pursue one.

For Washington, this is less a forecast of imminent attack than a recognition that geographic sanctuary is eroding. The United States has long assumed that only a small number of peer or near-peer adversaries could directly threaten its territory at long range. Gabbard’s testimony indicates that missile proliferation, dual-use space technology and advances in cheaper delivery systems are making that assumption harder to sustain. The report also notes that adversaries are likely to combine high-end missiles with less expensive expendable systems in an effort to strain U.S. missile defenses.

Pakistan’s inclusion is especially notable. In most American public discussions of strategic threats, Pakistan is viewed mainly through the lens of deterrence vis-à-vis India, domestic instability and nuclear security. In this case, however, the intelligence community is expressing concern that Pakistan’s increasingly sophisticated missile technology could eventually extend beyond its traditional regional focus. The assessment says Pakistan continues to develop missile technology that would give it the means to strike targets beyond South Asia.

The broader policy implication is that missile defense, homeland defense and strategic deterrence are likely to rise further on Washington’s list of priorities. The report also states plainly that adversaries and potential adversaries are studying U.S. plans for advanced homeland missile defense.

Takaichi heads to Washington for talks with Trump

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has arrived in Washington and is due to meet President Donald Trump today, setting up a potentially important summit at a sensitive moment for the U.S.-Japan alliance.

The visit had initially been expected to center on trade, investment, and strategic coordination in Asia.

Instead, it now unfolds against the backdrop of the war involving Iran, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and growing uncertainty over how much Washington expects its allies to support its broader regional posture.

For Takaichi, the trip is both diplomatic and political. Japan remains heavily reliant on energy flows from the Middle East, giving Tokyo a direct interest in stability around Hormuz.

At the same time, her government faces legal and political limits at home on any overt military role, particularly given Japan’s pacifist constitutional order and public reluctance to be drawn more deeply into a broader conflict.

The meeting is also expected to cover wider alliance issues, including economic cooperation, investment in the U.S., missile defense, and the balance of power in Asia, with China still prominent in the background.

The immediate question, however, is whether Takaichi can persuade Trump of Japan’s strategic importance without committing herself to steps that would carry a political cost in Tokyo.

Move fast and break things

White House waives Jones Act for energy shipments

The White House has approved a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged ships to transport oil, gas, and other energy cargo between U.S. ports. The aim is to ease domestic fuel costs as the war with Iran disrupts global energy flows.

The decision reflects growing concern in Washington that higher oil prices and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are feeding into U.S. gasoline and diesel costs.

The waiver could modestly improve flexibility in coastal fuel movements, especially on routes where the supply of Jones Act-compliant tankers is limited. Maritime and energy specialists, however, say the effect on pump prices is likely to be small, because the main cause of higher costs is not domestic shipping capacity but the broader rise in global crude prices caused by the war.

Industry opposition has been strong. Shipping groups and maritime labor interests argue that the waiver weakens U.S. operators while doing little to address the real problem, namely the rise in international energy prices. In practice, the measure looks more like a short-term logistical adjustment and political gesture than a decisive answer to higher fuel costs.

U.S. Postal Service warns cash may run out within a year

The head of the U.S. Postal Service has warned that the agency could exhaust its cash within roughly a year unless Congress gives it more financial room to operate. Postmaster General David Steiner told lawmakers this week that USPS is approaching a financial breaking point and may run out of funds by early 2027. Some projections place the crunch as early as October or November 2026 if required payments continue unchanged.

The warning matters because USPS is no peripheral federal agency. It is a legally mandated nationwide network that delivers mail six days a week to every address in the country, while relying largely on its own revenue rather than regular taxpayer appropriations. That model has been under pressure for years as first-class mail, still its most profitable core business, has steadily declined. Steiner told Congress that mail volume has fallen from more than 200 billion pieces in 2006 to roughly half that level today, eroding the revenue base that once sustained the system.

The financial backdrop is bleak. USPS said in its first-quarter fiscal 2026 filing that it had about $7.7 billion in unrestricted liquidity as of 31 December 2025 and no remaining borrowing capacity because it had already reached its statutory $15 billion debt ceiling. Steiner’s testimony argues that, without legislative changes, that cushion is not enough to absorb continuing losses and mandatory payments.

That leaves Washington facing an increasingly urgent dilemma. Congress eased some of USPS’s long-term burdens through the Postal Service Reform Act in 2022, but the agency says its business model remains constrained by statutory obligations and limited pricing and borrowing flexibility. Steiner is now pressing lawmakers to raise the borrowing cap, allow further postage increases, and revisit pension, workers’ compensation and retirement-fund rules. He has also indicated that politically sensitive options, including ending Saturday delivery and closing smaller post offices, cannot be ruled out.

The dilemma may intensify if Amazon, one of USPS’s largest package customers, sharply reduces the volume it sends through the network when its current contract expires later this year. Reports suggest Amazon is preparing for a major cutback after negotiations over a new arrangement broke down, potentially depriving USPS of an important source of package business.

U.S. expands visa-bond rule to 50 countries

Washington is tightening its visa regime. The U.S. State Department has expanded a visa-bond program that may require applicants from 50 countries to post refundable bonds of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 before receiving a B1/B2 business or tourist visa. The newly added countries are due to come under the rule on 2 April, bringing the total number covered to 50.

The measure is narrower than it may first seem. It does not mean that every traveler from those countries will automatically have to pay $15,000. Instead, consular officers determine the bond amount during the interview, and the requirement applies only to applicants who are otherwise found eligible for a B1/B2 visa. The State Department says the policy is intended to reduce visa overstays, with country selection based on overstay data and legal authority derived from a temporary final rule and existing immigration law.

Under the program, the bond is returned if the traveler leaves the United States on time, does not travel, or is denied admission at the port of entry. Applicants who post such bonds, however, face tighter conditions. They must enter and leave through commercial air ports of entry, and the government warns that overstaying, failing to depart properly, or changing out of nonimmigrant status, including by seeking asylum, can prompt a breach review.

The latest expansion adds Cambodia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Grenada, Lesotho, Mauritius, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Seychelles and Tunisia. These additions raise the number of affected nationalities from 38 to 50.

Senate standoff prolongs partial DHS shutdown, leaving TSA staff unpaid

Senate Democrats on 12 March blocked a Republican-backed effort to extend funding for the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks, prolonging a shutdown that has already disrupted airport screening and left Transportation Security Administration staff working without pay.

The stopgap measure failed after Democrats refused to support a temporary fix that did not address their broader dispute with Republicans over immigration enforcement and the role of agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The vote did not formally single out TSA agents’ pay. Instead, by preventing the two-week funding measure from advancing, senators allowed the broader lapse in DHS funding to continue, leaving TSA officers on the job without their regular paychecks.

The effects have become harder to ignore. More than 300 TSA officers had resigned by 12 March, while airlines warned that the impasse was placing growing strain on airport operations as the spring travel season approached. Industry executives have urged Congress to restore DHS funding, arguing that unpaid security staff and mounting delays were becoming an unacceptable risk to air travel.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief