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Trump says Iran war could last weeks more, end in sight, Hormuz not U.S. concern

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday night that the war with Iran would continue for another “two to three weeks”, indicating that Washington expects further military action unless Tehran accepts U.S. terms. He warned that, if no deal were reached, the U.S. would strike Iranian power plants. He also said that America’s core strategic objectives inside Iran were “close to completion”.

Trump used unusually aggressive language to describe the campaign’s aims and effects. He said the U.S. would “bring Iran back to the stone age” and claimed that Iran’s navy was “gone” and its air force “in ruins”.

Financial markets reacted quickly to the address. U.S. oil prices rose by more than 4%, while gold and silver fell sharply (possibly as energy importing nations sold off stocks). S&P 500 futures also dropped steeply, erasing more than $550 billion from market capitalization in roughly half an hour, as investors weighed the prospect of a longer war and broader regional disruption.

Iranian President writes to American people

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter addressed to the American people, casting Iran’s position as defensive and urging Washington to abandon confrontation.

In the letter, Pezeshkian says Iran bears “no enmity” toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe and neighboring states. He argues that recent U.S. actions amount to aggression against civilians and infrastructure, and warns that they risk laying the groundwork for prolonged global instability.

Pezeshkian says Iran’s conduct has been “a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense” and places responsibility for the collapse of the nuclear agreement on Washington, noting that the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was made by the U.S. government. He also argues that further escalation would be both costly and pointless.

The letter ends with a pointed appeal for diplomacy. Pezeshkian says the choice between confrontation and engagement is “real and consequential” and adds that, over its long history, Iran has endured and outlasted many aggressors.

Hormuz traffic remains choked as backlog grows

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained. The Joint Maritime Information Center said that only five vessels transited the waterway on 31 March; no figures were available on 1 April. Traffic appears to be running at roughly five or six ships a day, all moving with Iranian permission, compared with about 100 a day before 28 February. No further attacks on shipping have been reported since Wednesday’s strike on the Aqua 1 off the coast of Qatar, but the broader disruption is intensifying.

An estimated 2,190 ships are now trapped inside the Gulf, including more than 320 oil and gas tankers, 50 very large crude carriers and 12 very large gas carriers. In the past 24 hours, only six vessels were said to have crossed the waterway, down from around 120 a day before the war. Iran is reportedly allowing passage to what it calls friendly nations, including India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia. Other vessels are said to be paying as much as $2m for access, with payments now reportedly being made in yuan.

The commercial consequences are mounting. Saudi, Qatari and Emirati exports have effectively ground to a halt, while around 20,000 seafarers are said to be rationing food and water aboard stranded vessels. Even if the strait reopened immediately, clearing the backlog would probably take months.

Oil markets remain under pressure. WTI closed at $100.12 a barrel and Brent at $101.16. After President Donald Trump’s speech on the Iran war, Brent rose by about $4.45 and WTI by about $4.38, a gain of roughly 4.4% for both benchmarks.

The ultimate complex system

Global derivatives supply buffers near breaking as disruption affects markets

Certain emergency supply measures are due to expire at roughly the same time, raising the risk of a far deeper global industrial shock if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by mid-April.

The 400m-barrel release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is expected to run dry around 15 April and the U.S. waiver allowing India to keep buying Russian crude is also due to lapse.

Together, those stopgaps are said to be holding the supply shortfall at roughly 5m barrels a day. Without them, the gap could widen to around 10m barrels a day, a disruption that would surpass any previous crude shock.

The strain is not confined to oil. Major European and Asian airports are expected to begin running short of jet fuel within weeks, while the liquefied natural gas market is also under pressure. No LNG tanker reportedly departed through the Strait of Hormuz during March 2026, even though roughly a fifth of global LNG supply normally passes through the waterway. That is beginning to hit manufacturing supply chains well beyond the energy sector.

And Formosa Plastics declared force majeure effective 1 April.

U.S. manufacturers of soda bottles, peanut butter jars, sandwich bags and other everyday products are being squeezed by shortages of key inputs. Several producers of monoethylene glycol and purified terephthalic acid have declared force majeure as the conflict in the Persian Gulf damages oil fields, disrupts processing plants and chokes shipping, underlining how quickly disruption in the Gulf can spread through the wider industrial economy.

Iran’s steel industry takes wartime hits

Iran’s steel industry, one of the country’s most important heavy-industrial sectors, has sustained significant damage since 28 February, as strikes in late March hit some of its most important production sites.

Iran remains by far the largest steel producer in the Middle East and one of the world’s 10 biggest steelmakers, with crude steel output of roughly 31.8 million metric tons (35.1 million short tons) in 2025.

The most important reported strikes came on 26 and 27 March. Foolad Atieh, also known as Asia Steel, was hit first, reportedly suffering partial damage and a temporary suspension of operations. More serious strikes then hit Khuzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel, two of the country’s most important producers. Reported damage included storage silos, a substation, direct-reduction facilities, an alloy-steel line and parts of on-site power units. Khuzestan’s production has reportedly been halted indefinitely, while Mobarakeh appears to have continued operating with disruptions in some units, although it was reportedly hit again on 1 April.

For now, the available evidence suggests that Iran’s steel industry has been badly degraded, especially in export capacity and operational resilience.

Move fast and break things

DOJ opens FARA investigation into AIPAC

The U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday evening that it had opened a formal investigation into the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, better known as AIPAC, over alleged violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, in a striking and unexpected enforcement move. The announcement immediately raised the prospect of a politically explosive legal battle involving one of Washington’s most influential pro-Israel lobbying organizations. AIPAC declined to comment on the investigation.

Supreme Court weighs birthright citizenship order

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday heard arguments over President Donald Trump’s order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship, in a case that could alter a long-established reading of the Constitution. Several justices, including some conservatives, appeared doubtful about the administration’s legal case, raising questions about whether the court is willing to endorse such a sweeping change. The dispute is being watched closely because it examines both the limits of presidential power and the meaning of citizenship under the 14th Amendment. A ruling is expected by the end of June.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Ukraine’s truce proposal meets fresh Russian attacks

Ukraine said a new round of contacts with U.S. mediators had been encouraging, but any diplomatic momentum was soon overtaken by renewed Russian attacks.

On 1 April President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said recent talks involving U.S. interlocutors had been “positive” and had focused on security guarantees and the broader route to a settlement.

He also said Ukraine’s proposal for an Easter truce, centered on halting strikes on energy infrastructure, had produced no meaningful Russian restraint. Instead, he said, Moscow responded with a large wave of drone attacks on central and western Ukraine, including energy-related targets.

The episode highlights the distance between tentative diplomacy and the reality of the war. Zelenskiy has said Kyiv would be prepared to stop striking Russian oil and energy facilities if Russia halted attacks on Ukraine’s power system, a position he has asked U.S. mediators to pass on to Moscow.

The Kremlin, however, has reacted coolly, saying it had not received a formal proposal while continuing to push for a broader settlement on terms Ukraine rejects, including territorial concessions in the Donbas.

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