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What you need to know

“No more partial deals”: Israel weighs full-scale occupation of Gaza

Israeli politics and military strategy are in growing turmoil as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moves toward more drastic steps in the Gaza conflict. The government is now refusing further hostage-prisoner exchanges unless all captives are released and Gaza is fully demilitarized.

A senior Israeli official speaking to the media emphasized a shift in approach, declaring that there would be “no more partial deals.” The United States is said to support this stance, with President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, returning to Washington for high-level discussions to align policy on Gaza and hostages.

Ceasefire negotiations have led nowhere, and Israeli ministers are increasingly advocating for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip. Cabinet today approved a plan to do just that.

That direction, however, is facing serious internal resistance. Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir has cancelled a planned visit to the United States, where he was to attend a change-of-command ceremony at U.S. Central Command and hold strategic talks at the Pentagon.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll in Gaza continues to worsen. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, while food shortages, displacement, and the collapse of basic services have created catastrophic conditions on the ground.

Israeli public opinion is also shifting. The release of a video showing a severely emaciated hostage, Evyatar David, has reignited anger over the slow pace of hostage negotiations. In the footage, David appears near death and is seen digging his own grave, a stark reminder of the urgency many hostage families now feel.

Israel faces three main options: a full occupation of Gaza, the imposition of long-term military rule, or a partial withdrawal contingent on international guarantees. Military leadership remains wary of further escalation without a clear exit strategy, while political leaders appear increasingly committed to a maximalist solution.

Israel is thus poised at a crossroads: between military expansion, diplomatic retreat, or prolonged impasse. The decisions taken this week will shape the trajectory of the conflict for months to come, but the current situation is becoming totally untenable.

It’s America vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Trump targets India over Russian oil trade

President Donald Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on India for its continued purchases of Russian oil, a key revenue stream for the Kremlin amid its war on Ukraine. While natural gas remains unsanctioned and free from price caps, oil sales represent the principal source of income sustaining Russia’s military campaign.

Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump declared:

“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT.”

India is likely to view the remarks as both unfair and undiplomatic. European countries continue to import Russian natural gas without U.S. tariff penalties, and other oil buyers have avoided similar scrutiny. Still, New Delhi cannot afford to provoke a broader rupture. The U.S. is among India’s most important economic partners, with bilateral trade totaling approximately $129bn in 2024. Some 18% of Indian exports are destined for the U.S. market.

Japan’s Mogami frigate will be Australia’s next warship

Australia has finalized a landmark A$10 billion (US$6.5 billion) defense deal with Japan for a fleet of 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates, marking the first major overseas warship export by Japan since the Second World War.

This agreement represents a strategic breakthrough for Japan’s defense industry, which has long operated under postwar restrictions on arms exports. Under the deal, three vessels will be built in Japan, while the remaining eight will be constructed in Western Australia by a local shipbuilder. Deliveries are expected to begin by 2029, with the ships entering operational service by 2030.

The Mogami-class is a stealth frigate platform designed for multi-domain naval warfare, including anti-submarine, surface, and air defense roles. Each ship displaces between 3,900 and 5,500 tonnes and can operate with a lean crew of around 90 personnel (an advantage given Australia’s naval recruitment challenges).

The upgraded design includes 32 Mk 41 vertical launch cells, offering four times the missile capacity of Australia’s aging Anzac-class frigates. Advanced radar systems, electronic warfare suites, and integrated support for helicopters and drones give the platform a flexible, future-proof profile for modern maritime operations.

The Mogami-class was selected after an independent evaluation of competing bids from European and Asian shipbuilders. It was judged superior in terms of cost-efficiency, construction schedule, and technological readiness. Australia’s current surface fleet modernization, which aims to replace the Anzac-class frigates, requires platforms that can be deployed quickly and affordably. The Japanese bid met these conditions more convincingly than its rivals.

The decision also reflects closer defense alignment between Australia and Japan, part of a broader network of regional security partnerships built around interoperability with the United States.

The shipbuilding plan includes significant technology transfer and domestic industry participation. The eight Australian-built vessels will help sustain and expand local shipbuilding capacity, while also deepening long-term defense-industrial integration between the two countries.

Strategically, the deal marks a significant evolution in both nations’ military postures. For Japan, it demonstrates a growing willingness to play a more assertive role in regional security through arms exports and joint development. For Australia, it signals a practical shift toward a more agile, capable navy suited to the security realities of the Indo-Pacific.

With construction due to begin in 2026 and service entry by the end of the decade, the Mogami-class is expected to form the backbone of Australia’s future surface combatant force.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Syria drifts further into instability as U.S. reduces presence

Syria continues to teeter on the brink, with fresh violence flaring and American troops consolidating their footprint. On Monday, Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Türkiye and special Middle East envoy, posted on social media: “Disturbing violence erupted yesterday in Suwayda, and in Manbij. Diplomacy is the best way to stop violence and build a peaceful, lasting solution. The U.S. is proud to have helped mediate a solution in Suwayda and to be co-mediating with France the reintegration of the northeast into a unified Syria. The path ahead belongs to Syrians—urging all sides to uphold calm and resolve differences through dialogue, not bloodshed. Syria deserves stability. Syrians deserve peace.”

The remarks came as the U.S.-led Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) confirmed that it had completed the first phase of its force consolidation plan. In May, U.S. and Coalition forces withdrew from three bases in the Middle Euphrates River Valley: Mission Support Site Euphrates, Mission Support Site Green Village, and H2. The installations were either dismantled or handed over to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Some troops were redeployed to other CJTF-OIR bases in Syria or Iraq; others returned to the United States after finishing their tour of duty. While the reshuffle reflects a longer-term drawdown, it also signals a shift toward lower visibility and greater reliance on diplomatic tools, as American envoys attempt to broker calm among Syria’s fractious armed groups.

Hezbollah supporters rally as Cabinet weighs disarmament

Supporters and members of Hezbollah staged a demonstration in Beirut on yesterday, one day ahead of a Lebanese Cabinet meeting set to address the disarmament of armed groups operating outside state control.

Protesters gathered in southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, chanting: “At your command, Nasrallah,” in a show of allegiance to Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s late secretary-general (killed by an Israeli airstrike in September last year). The government, under mounting internal and international pressure, is demanding that Hezbollah surrender its weapons.

The group responded defiantly. In a statement circulated through affiliated media, Hezbollah declared: “Resistance is the only path.” The confrontation underscores the deep divisions within Lebanon’s fractured political system and the enduring challenge of asserting state authority over parallel armed structures. There are no easy options for Lebanon at this point.

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