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What you need to know

Israeli cabinet approves plan to seize Gaza City after marathon meeting

Israel’s Security Cabinet has approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to defeat Hamas, following a ten-hour meeting. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will prepare to take control of Gaza City, the largest urban area in the Gaza Strip, while continuing to distribute humanitarian aid outside combat zones.

The plan calls for a gradual military takeover of all of Gaza, against the recommendation of the IDF’s senior leadership. Gaza City will be brought under Israeli control as humanitarian assistance is provided.

The Cabinet adopted five principles for ending the war: the disarmament of Hamas; the return of all hostages; the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip; the establishment of Israeli security control over the territory; and the creation of an alternative civilian government that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

Commercial satellite imagery shows Israeli forces massing for what appears to be an imminent large-scale ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu said, “The operation isn’t irreversible. We’re ready to consider a halt if Hamas accepts Israel’s terms.”

Israel is also now prepared to hand governance of Gaza to an international body, though the details remain unclear. This is a significant concession from the Israeli government and could signal the beginning of the end of the conflict, though it’s also a reflection of the practical limitations of the Israeli Defense Forces (whose leadership has made it clear it does not want to occupy 2 million Palestinian civilians).

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Israel to “immediately” reconsider its “wrong” decision to take control of Gaza City. “The Israeli government’s decision to further escalate its offensive in Gaza is wrong, and we urge it to reconsider immediately,” he said. “This action will do nothing to bring an end to this conflict or to help secure the release of the hostages. It will only bring more bloodshed.

In response to criticism from London, Israel has warned that it could cut off intelligence cooperation, including the sharing of information on terrorist threats, if the United Kingdom recognizes Palestine.

Move fast and break things

Stephen Miran to join Federal Reserve

U.S. President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, a former Treasury official, investment strategist, and current chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, to serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, replacing Adriana Kugler. His term, if confirmed, would run until 31 January 2026.

Miran earned his bachelor’s degree from Boston University and his doctorate in economics from Harvard University in 2010, where he focused on household saving behaviour and fiscal policy under the supervision of Martin Feldstein. He later worked in the private sector as an investment strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and co-founded Amberwave Partners, a firm promoting “patriotic investing” in U.S. companies.

During Trump’s first term, Miran served as a senior adviser at the Treasury Department, where he helped design pandemic-era stimulus measures, oversaw financial-market policy, and supported emergency lending programs.

A strong supporter of Trump’s trade agenda, Miran is regarded as one of the intellectual architects of the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord (a proposed framework to reduce U.S. trade deficits by lowering the dollar’s value, imposing reciprocal tariffs, and restructuring trade relationships along strategic lines).

Initially, Miran struck a hawkish tone on inflation, warning that aggressive rate cuts risked eroding the Fed’s credibility. In recent months, however, he has shifted to support lower rates, contending that markets underestimate the pace of disinflation and that the Fed will “eventually catch up to the President’s view.” His writings suggest a empirical and flexible approach to monetary policy willing to tolerate easier credit conditions if they are consistent with broader economic and political objectives.

If confirmed, Miran’s tenure could still have an outsized influence on the Fed’s policy debate. His appointment would likely tilt the board toward a more nationalist and politically responsive posture, while signaling a broader shift in how a second Trump administration might seek to reshape the central bank’s mandate and governance.

Trump expands investment options, targets de-banking, and adds gold tariffs

The surge of executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of abating.

In the latest batch, Trump signed a measure directing federal regulators to permit retirement savings plans, including 401(k) accounts, to invest in private equity and cryptocurrencies.

In a separate order, Trump moved to prohibit financial institutions from “de-banking” Americans on the basis of their political or religious beliefs. The directive instructs federal banking regulators to enforce policies ensuring that account closures, service denials, or loan restrictions cannot be made solely on ideological grounds.

Trump also authorized new tariffs on imports of one-kilogram (2.2-pound) and 100-ounce (6.25-pound) gold bars. The administration says the move is intended to combat forgery and illicit gold flows, particularly from India, which is one of the world’s largest importers and refiners of gold.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, who is personally irritated at the continuing U.S. attacks on his economy, has announced that he will visit China next week. However, whatever Washington manages to do to irritate New Delhi, there is virtually no chance that the China and India will be able to reconcile their extremely deep historical and strategic differences. The White House knows this very well, and it is this strategic dilemma that means India is a relatively cost-free way for Washington to leverage Moscow’s dependence on oil sales to keep its economy afloat.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed in Moscow for Kremlin talks

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, arrived in Moscow for high-level discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.

Putin has reportedly suggested that the UAE could serve as a suitable venue for a face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump, should ongoing diplomatic efforts yield sufficient progress toward a peace framework in Ukraine.

According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the United States now has, for the first time, “an understanding” of Russia’s proposed terms for ending the war, following a meeting between real-estate developer Steve Witkoff and Putin in Moscow. Rubio emphasized that this did not mean Washington had accepted those terms. “Now, I’m not claiming that what the Russians would need and what Ukraine would need are the same. There’s a difference, and there’s a gap there,” he said.

Rubio described the current diplomatic effort as an attempt to narrow that gap. “The question for us now is, can we bridge the gap between the Ukrainian side and the Russian side closely enough so the President can come in as part of any sort of meeting and maybe be the closer on this deal,” he added.

Talk of a potential bilateral summit between Trump and Putin, probably in Abu Dhabi, continues to circulate in diplomatic circles, although no date has been set.

America First

Trump hosts Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal at White House

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace agreement during a meeting at the White House today. Trump will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Friday to formalize a U.S.-brokered accord that includes a trade corridor bypassing Iran, according to Axios.

The 43.5-kilometer (27-mile) route, to be developed by the United States and named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, will connect mainland Azerbaijan to its enclave on the Turkish border. It will allow the movement of people and goods between Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia without passing through Iran or Russia.

Washington says the project could generate billions of dollars in trade for the region and reduce Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence. Trump described the upcoming signing as a “historic peace summit” and praised Pashinyan and Aliyev for “doing the right thing.”

U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Maduro

The United States has doubled its reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, raising the amount to $50 million, over allegations of drug trafficking and links to transnational criminal groups. The announcement was made by U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who said the decision reflected “the seriousness of the charges and the urgency of bringing Maduro to justice.”

Washington has long accused Maduro of leading a “narco-terrorism” conspiracy that channels tonnes of cocaine through Venezuela to Central America, the Caribbean, and the U.S. Prosecutors allege that the operation involves senior Venezuelan military figures and members of the so-called Cartel of the Suns, a network U.S. authorities claim operates under the protection of the Venezuelan state.

Bondi said that evidence gathered over years of investigation links Maduro directly to cocaine shipments and to financial transactions with foreign militant groups. “The Venezuelan people have suffered under a corrupt regime that profits from crime while ordinary citizens endure poverty and repression,” she said.

The bounty, offered under the State Department’s Narcotics Rewards Program, is one of the highest ever placed on a foreign head of state. The program, established in 1986, has primarily targeted cartel leaders and drug kingpins, not heads of state.

The reward for Maduro was first set at $15 million in March 2020, when U.S. federal prosecutors in New York and Florida filed sweeping indictments against him and more than a dozen current and former Venezuelan officials.

Venezuela’s government has dismissed the accusations as “fabricated” and accused Washington of attempting to orchestrate a coup. In a televised address, Maduro vowed that he would “never surrender to imperialist blackmail,” accusing the U.S. of waging “economic warfare” against his country.

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