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What you need to know

Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Alaska

On 15 August, President Donald Trump will host Russian President Vladimir Putin for a summit in Alaska, their first face-to-face meeting in years and the first on U.S. soil since the late Cold War. The choice of venue is symbolic, Alaska having been Russian territory, and affords Putin protection from international arrest warrants. Critics say the meeting risks conferring unwarranted legitimacy on Moscow while the war in Ukraine continues.

European leaders have reiterated support for Ukraine, insisting that no settlement can be reached without Kyiv’s participation and that any agreement must respect international law and the principle that borders are not changed by force.

There have been different reports of Russia’s conditions. Trump has told European leaders that Moscow was prepared to withdraw from parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for full control of Donetsk. However, White House envoy Steve Witkoff tempered that account in a call with senior European aides. On Friday, after further queries from European officials, Witkoff stated that the only proposal under discussion was a unilateral Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk in exchange for a cease-fire.

The floated framework, as reported, appears to offer little to Ukraine: Russia would consolidate control of Crimea and all of Donbas, and front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would be frozen. Ukraine would be expected to cede Donbas without reciprocal concessions.

In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected territorial concessions, calling such proposals “dead decisions,” and noting that Ukraine’s constitution forbids them. He has said Ukraine must take part in any negotiation affecting its sovereignty or territory.

For now, the Alaska summit is presented as a bilateral meeting at Moscow’s request. Washington has not ruled out inviting Zelenskyy, and some officials are exploring a trilateral format.

European capitals caution that any agreement reached without Ukraine would lack legitimacy and be unenforceable.

There are several possible outcomes from this. A limited truce could reduce large-scale fighting without addressing core disputes, offering only temporary relief while allowing Russian forces to regroup. Excluding Zelenskyy could backfire, strengthening his position at home and abroad. If he attends, talks could focus on a cease-fire and security guarantees, but any imbalanced arrangement risks appearing to reward aggression unless anchored by firm commitments to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Separately, Ukrainian military bloggers reported over the weekend that Russian forces breached defensive lines northeast of Pokrovsk by at least 15 km (9 miles), overrunning multiple trench systems and advancing on foot as Ukraine struggles to hold ground. The precise front line remains difficult to determine due to fluid fighting, including small-unit Russian infiltrations (groups of 2-5 soldiers) that sometimes reach several kilometers behind Ukrainian positions without securing a foothold. It remains to be seen whether the reported breakthrough will be sustained, but it does appear to be different in scale to anything we’ve seen since the beginning of this year.

Move fast and break things

Crypto goes mainstream

In the space of a week, cryptocurrency has been pulled decisively toward the centre of the global financial system. In Washington, President Donald Trump signed two executive orders that together mark the most pro-crypto policy shift in American history. The first opens the $12.5 trillion 401(k) retirement-savings market to digital-asset investments, potentially giving up to 90 million Americans exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum and their rivals through tax-advantaged accounts. The second prohibits “de-banking” based on political, religious or crypto-related activity, cementing a federal stance that digital assets are to be treated as legitimate holdings.

Regulatory clarity arrived at the same pace. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs agreed to end their years-long court battle, removing legal uncertainty over the XRP token.

Dubai has also just granted its first crypto-options license, underlining its ambition to be a hub for digital-asset derivatives.

Timeline of events last week

The implications for America’s economy could be considerable.

Yet there are risks. Capital flowing into crypto will come from somewhere, potentially raising funding costs for firms if demand for bonds weakens. More volatility in retirement portfolios is possible. And the political signal, a pivot from enforcement to encouragement, will make America a magnet for digital-asset talent and capital, possibly at the expense of other jurisdictions.

Globally, the shift will not go unnoticed. International investors often mimic American pension trends, funneling more liquidity into U.S.-listed ETFs.

Rival hubs from London to Singapore may liberalize in response to Dubai’s first-mover advantage. By integrating crypto into its regulated architecture, America also strengthens the dollar’s digital reach, complicating de-dollarization campaigns by China and the BRICS.

The flip side is that deeper integration will align crypto more closely with global equity cycles, making financial shocks more contagious. For emerging markets, the risk is capital flight into U.S.-based crypto products, aggravating currency instability.

The week’s events form a clear sequence: political endorsement, legal certainty, institutional capital, market rally, and global imitation. If sustained, the convergence of Washington, Wall Street and offshore financial centers could usher in a multi-year cycle in which crypto is no longer a speculative fringe but a central component of the world’s financial order.

America First

Nvidia to remit 15% of H20 revenue from China to the U.S. government

Nvidia has agreed to remit 15% of revenue from sales of its H20 chip in China to the U.S. government.

The arrangement follows debate over the H20, which Nvidia tailored for the Chinese market after President Joe Biden imposed tighter export controls on advanced chips used for artificial intelligence.

In April, the administration of President Donald Trump said it would ban H20 exports to China.

No U.S. company has previously agreed to pay a share of its revenue to obtain export licenses.

The U.S. Constitution prohibits export taxes. Article I, §9, cl. 5 states, “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.”

The arrangement covers 15% of revenue from China, not just profit, and applies to both Nvidia and AMD.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Six Lebanese soldiers killed in south Lebanon arms blast

Six Lebanese soldiers were killed and several others wounded when an arms depot exploded as an army team was inspecting and dismantling munitions in Wadi Zibqin, near Tyre in south Lebanon on Saturday. It appears the cache belonged to Hezbollah, and was being dismantled under the terms of the 27 November peace treaty with Israel.

The cause of the blast has not been revealed (accidental or deliberate?). The ambiguity comes amid a fierce debate over disarming non-state actors and extending the state’s monopoly over weapons.

Earlier this week three Hezbollah-aligned ministers walked out of a cabinet session over discussions over a U.S.-backed plan that tasks the army with ensuring that only state institutions hold arms.

Syrian government forces reposition to the northeast

In Syria, the 86th Division, nominally aligned with the interim government in Damascus but closely tied to Turkish intelligence services, is sending reinforcements to northeastern areas, particularly the Deir ez-Zor countryside and the vicinity of the Tishrin Dam, which are controlled by the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Syrian government sources told the media that units are moving from barracks in Aleppo toward eastern front lines with the SDF. Officials say this does not necessarily presage armed confrontation, and that Damascus still prefers negotiations with the SDF. Even so, the troop movements, coming only days after the U.S. announced a drawdown of its forces in SDF-held areas, raise the risk of clashes. The SDF controls the largest share of Syrian territory and has in the past enjoyed support from Israel.

This follows conflict in the past few weeks with Druze groups in the south-west of the country, which resulted in Damascus withdrawing its forces after Israeli airstrikes in support of one of the major Druze factions.

The planet will be fine, it’s the humans who should be worried

Europe’s heat

Europe is experiencing sustained and exceptional heat. The continent has warmed at roughly twice the global average since the 1980s, a trend visible in daily weather patterns, infrastructure strain and shifts in agriculture.

France illustrates the shift. Between 1950 and 2000, temperatures above 40°C (104°F) occurred on average 0.8 times per year. Since the 2000s, such readings have been recorded about 16 times per year, with considerable annual variation.

High temperatures are now affecting far northern latitudes. In early August, the Finnish Arctic recorded a provisional high of 34.3°C (93.7°F).

Several factors contribute to the rapid warming. Arctic amplification is reducing the temperature contrast between the poles and the mid-latitudes, slowing and distorting the jet stream and increasing the persistence of high-pressure systems. Drier soils in summer limit evaporative cooling, concentrating heat in the air. Shifts in atmospheric circulation are also increasing the inflow of hot, dry air from North Africa into western Europe.

But what has been neglected by the media is the impact of the reduction in pollution. Environmentalist policies have reduced particulate matter in the atmosphere, which was previously actually reducing the rate of warming. This is refered to as the “albedo effect,” and is linked to aerosols that brighten clouds and thus cool the planet

Dr James Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist whose 1988 testimony to the U.S. Congress and briefing to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher helped put global warming on the political agenda, is urging journalists to amplify his view that climate change is unfolding faster than widely understood.

He argues that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underestimates the pace of warming, that equilibrium climate sensitivity is about 4.5°C rather than the IPCC’s central estimate of roughly 3°C, and that past cooling from aerosols (the “albedo effect”) masked the true rate of warming but is now fading, so heating is likely to accelerate. He says the 1.5°C target is “long dead,” and contends the overall situation is much more serious than commonly appreciated.

The effects are visible across multiple sectors. River-cooled nuclear power plants face output restrictions during heat waves. Inland shipping is disrupted by fluctuating river levels. Agriculture is adjusting to shorter planting windows and more frequent heat stress. Cities experience higher mortality during prolonged heat events. Insurers are reassessing climate risk, prompting debate over public guarantees and stricter planning rules.

European governments are pairing emissions reduction with adaptation. Measures under consideration or in place include revised building codes, cool-roof and tree-canopy mandates, expanded district cooling, water-sharing agreements, and contingency plans for essential services during extreme weather.

Two immediate tests will be whether power grids can meet late-summer demand without disruption, and whether governments release timely data on heat-related mortality. The outcome will indicate whether the continent is moving from reactive measures to long-term risk management.

Europe remains the fastest-warming continent. In France, extreme heat once considered exceptional is now routine, and the Finnish Arctic is recording temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius. The trend shows no sign of containment.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Mali detains officers amid rumors of coup plot

Mali, which has faced a major offensive by al-Qaeda-aligned militants in recent weeks, has reportedly detained dozens of military officers over the weekend amid claims of a coup plot. Additional arrests were said to have followed today. The government has not commented on the reports.

The Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French forces and U.S. troops in recent years after a succession of coups, turning instead to Russian mercenaries.

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