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Russian advances in the Donbass region continue, as President Trump makes it clear that President Zelenskyy will not be invited to the Alaska summit on 15 August. Trump, however, has tried to reduce expectations of a final deal being reached at the summit, suggesting that it would be more of a brainstorming session than a finalization of negotiations. Iran, meanwhile, is facing another crisis, as it runs out of water amid record temperatures.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Ukraine war update

A Russian breakthrough in the Donbas is dominating military news ahead of the summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15 August in Alaska.

  • Moscow’s likely demands for the meeting, entrenching control of Crimea and much of eastern Ukraine, appear clear.

  • Trump yesterday was more circumspect, describing the encounter as a “feel-out meeting” to test ideas for ending the war.

  • Ukrainian media reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told European Union partners he is ready to freeze the front line and trade some occupied territory, a sharp departure from his public stance.

Despite speculation in recent days, Trump appears determined not to invite Zelenskyy to the Alaska summit. He said at a press conference yesterday that Zelenskyy had failed to end the war in three and a half years, which is why he would not be invited.

On the ground, numerous small Russian infantry units, some as small as 3–5 men, have pushed as far as 19km (12 miles) into Ukrainian-held territory since the weekend, overrunning unmanned or lightly manned trenches and defensive works.

The pattern of multiple shallow penetrations by tiny harrying detachments, rather than advances by large formations, makes the strategic implications hard to read. The apparent lack of resistance in some sectors is troubling for Ukraine’s command and gives Russia at least a propaganda win, even if such raiding parties cannot yet hold ground. The picture points to Ukraine’s manpower constraints.

The assault appears almost entirely infantry-based, likely with small motorized detachments with motorbikes. No significant mechanized component has been observed—no tanks, no armored vehicles—which would be highly vulnerable to Ukrainian drones.

  • The fighting underscores how pervasive drone warfare has sharply constrained heavy armor, tilting the contest back toward small-unit infantry movement.

In effect, conventional land warfare, having been dominated by tanks since World War One, has now returned to infantry combat, as drones have undermined the efficacy of tanks on the battlefield.

The current line of advance is estimated at 15–19km (9–12 miles). If the momentum is not checked, we will see disruption of key supply routes and even local encirclements in the Donbas.

Analysts increasingly blame the breach on Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi. It is unclear whether Syrskyi will keep his post after what appears to be the most serious Russian advance since the push into Ocheretyne in April last year.

For detailed, data-rich battlefield assessments, see the Institute for the Study of War (https://www.understandingwar.org/). Many independent analysts also rely on the mapping of Clément Molin on X (@clement_molin).

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy

America First

China tariff suspension extended another 90 days

President Donald Trump said yesterday on social media that he had signed an executive order extending the tariff suspension with China for another 90 days, keeping the truce in place until 10 November. The pause preserves current rates, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% and China’s tariffs on U.S. goods at 10%.

Beijing said it would continue suspending or removing measures against selected U.S. firms on its “unreliable entities” and related control lists, with some relief extended for another 90 days.

The U.S. signaled openness to Nvidia selling a scaled-down version of its next-generation Blackwell AI chips in China. Officials also confirmed a 15% revenue share from certain China sales and continued licensing for H20-class chips.

Regional equities were mostly higher on the truce extension, and Japan’s Nikkei hit a record.

Separately, New Delhi said roughly 55% of India’s exports to the U.S. will face newly announced tariffs, bringing the overall rate to about 50%, while talks continue. Pretoria signaled it will propose a revised trade package to ease the new 30% U.S. tariff imposed last week. Washington and Seoul have set a first summit for 25 August in Washington, D.C., between Trump and South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung.

Cold War 2.0

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Chinese vessels collide near Scarborough Shoal

Manila has lodged a formal protest over “dangerous” Chinese maneuvers after two Chinese government ships collided while chasing a Philippine Coast Guard vessel near Scarborough Shoal on Monday. The incident caused serious damage and prompted emergency activity in the area.

The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila called the episode a grave threat to Philippine personnel and vessels. Philippine Coast Guard officials said a China Coast Guard cutter, identified as CCG 3104, executed a risky turn while pursuing the BRP Suluan, leading it to strike a larger People’s Liberation Army Navy warship.

On Tuesday, at least one China Coast Guard ship and eight maritime militia vessels were observed conducting search-and-rescue operations 15 to 25 nautical miles east of the shoal (28 to 46km; 17 to 29 miles), suggesting concerns about injuries or overboard risks.

Scarborough Shoal, known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc and Panatag, lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, although China has effectively controlled access since 2012.

The area has become a frequent flashpoint, with Chinese coast-guard and militia vessels employing close-quarter tactics, including water cannon, to turn back Philippine missions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said the country will not back down in defending its maritime rights.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Iran’s water crisis: heat, emptying reservoirs, and a vanishing lake

Record heat, years of drought, and chronic over-extraction have left Iran in an acute, nationwide water crunch, with Tehran and at least ten other provinces declaring heat-and-conservation holidays, cutting power, and warning of rotating water outages as dam levels around the capital sink to perilous lows.

Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, underscored the severity of the country’s deepening water crisis yesterday with an unusually blunt public appeal yesterday:

  • “We don’t have water,” he said. “We don’t have water under our feet and we don’t have water behind the dam. Tell me what to do. Someone come and tell me what I should do.”

His remarks, delivered against the backdrop of record heat, dwindling reservoirs, and mounting public anger over shortages, reflected both the scale of the problem and the political pressure his administration faces as the crisis worsens.

  • Separately, Pezeshkian also said that he did not believe the wearing of the hijab by women should be compulsory, in a marked departure from decades of Iranian government policy and an indication of his intent to lessen friction between the government and ordinary citizens.

Officials have urged households to trim consumption by about a fifth, while daytime highs in parts of the country have neared 50°C (122°F). Lake Urmia, once the Middle East’s largest salt lake, is at risk of running dry by the end of summer if current trends persist as inflows collapse after an exceptionally dry water year.

Scarcity is stoking unrest in the center, where farmers around Isfahan have again protested inter-basin transfers to Yazd, damaging sections of pipeline. Years of aquifer overdraft and declining recharge, coupled with agriculture’s dominance of withdrawals and decades of dam-building and basin transfers that have rigidified allocations, have eroded resilience to drought, while sanctions and tight finance have slowed upgrades to networks, reuse, and leakage reduction.

Rationing and intermittent closures will continue through August if temperatures remain near 50°C (122°F) and reservoir levels keep falling, with pressure points likely around the Zayandeh Rud–Yazd transfer, emergency trucking in smaller cities, and any shift by the government toward large-scale reuse or agricultural reallocation.

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What happened today:

1099 - Battle of Ascalon ends the First Crusade. 1806 - Buenos Aires recaptured from British forces. 1898 - Protocol of Peace ends the Spanish–American War. 1898 - United States formally annexes Hawaii. 1949 - Geneva Conventions signed. 1952 - Night of the Murdered Poets in the Soviet Union. 1953 - Soviet Union detonates its first hydrogen bomb (RDS-6s). 1969 - Battle of the Bogside erupts in Northern Ireland. 2000 - Russian submarine Kursk sinks in the Barents Sea. 2008 - Russia and Georgia agree to a ceasefire in the South Ossetia war.

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