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Trump prepares economic offers for Putin ahead of Ukraine talks

The White House is preparing a package of economic incentives to present to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting on Friday, aimed at persuading him to end the war in Ukraine.

The proposals reportedly include granting Moscow access to Alaska’s natural resources, opening up rare earth mineral reserves in parts of eastern Ukraine, and lifting certain sanctions on Russia’s aviation sector.

President Donald Trump also said: “If Putin does not agree to stop the war in Ukraine after Friday, there will be very severe consequences for Russia”. This contrasts with comments he and his press secretary made earlier in the week, which suggested that this summit was intended to map out ideas, rather than reach a final agreement on a cessation of hostilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set out five demands to end the war:

Trump told Zelensky and European leaders that ceding Ukrainian territory would be necessary to reach an agreement. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Zelensky have both rejected any deal that transfers territory to Russia, stating, “Borders may not be changed through violence.”

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Pentagon urges Australia to lift defense budget ahead of Taiwan deadline

The Pentagon has warned that Australia’s current defense spending, around 2% of GDP, is insufficient to meet its AUKUS obligations and to deter potential threats, notably a possible conflict over Taiwan by 2027.

During the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered this message to Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles, stressing that higher spending is essential to sustain AUKUS and preserve regional deterrence.

Reaching the 3.5% target would require an additional A$40 billion (US$26.8 billion) a year, lifting annual defense spending to nearly A$100 billion (US$67 billion).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government has so far resisted such a steep rise, saying the planned increases are backloaded, with most of the growth coming after 2028. The government argues that capability, rather than arbitrary percentage goals, should guide expenditure.

Bipartisan support for AUKUS in the U.S. remains strong. Congressional delegations have reaffirmed backing for the alliance and voiced confidence that Australia’s Osborne Naval Shipyard will retain its role despite a Pentagon review. That review, prompted by concerns over American shipbuilding capacity and force readiness, has fueled debate about possible delays in delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Supporters, however, continue to stress the pact’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific.

India and China in talks to resume border trade after five-year pause

India and China are considering resuming border trade in domestic goods after a hiatus of more than five years, a step that signals a tentative easing of tensions and a bid to revive economic ties.

The cross-border markets, once vital lifelines for communities on both sides, were closed following the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes and the COVID-19 pandemic. Current discussions focus on reopening commerce via designated Himalayan routes along the 3,488 km (2,167 mile) disputed frontier.

On 8 August, India’s Minister of State for External Affairs, Kirti Vardhan Singh, confirmed that talks include the possible reopening of three key mountain passes—Lipulekh in Uttarakhand, Shipki La in Himachal Pradesh, and Nathu La in Sikkim—as conduits for renewed trade.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to visit New Delhi on Monday, 18 August, for talks under the Special Representatives mechanism, aimed at resolving boundary disputes.

During his visit, Wang is expected to meet with India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, and possibly with External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Discussions are expected to focus on the ongoing border standoff and measures to build confidence between the two sides.

The trip is seen as part of diplomatic preparations ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit at the end of August.

America First

U.S. drone conducts mission deep into Mexico at request of Mexican authorities

A U.S. Customs and Border Protection MQ-9B SkyGuardian drone undertook a mission over central Mexico early today, operating at the request of Mexican authorities. The drone took off from Texas and entered Mexican airspace around Valle de Bravo—southwest of Mexico City—at approximately 6:43 a.m., remaining airborne for about 1 hour and 50 minutes. The flight appears to have supported local investigations rather than conducting military surveillance.

Mexico’s head of security, Omar García Harfuch, clarified that the drone was unarmed and not part of a foreign military operation. He emphasized it flew with explicit permission to assist Mexican investigative efforts.

Local reporting suggests the flight may be linked to surveillance of brothers Johnny "El Pez" Hurtado Olascoaga and José Alfredo "El Fresa" Hurtado Olascoaga, alleged leaders of the cartel known as La Nueva Familia Michoacana.

The operation follows closely on the heels of Mexico extraditing 26 high-ranking cartel figures—including leaders from the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG, Cártel del Noreste, and former Kni­ghts Templar boss Servando "La Tuta" Gómez Martínez—to the U.S., underscoring intensifying cross-border law-enforcement cooperation.

Move fast and break things

Trump signs executive order to stockpile drug ingredients amid looming shortages

President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order expanding upon his 6 August 2020 directive (Executive Order 13944), instructing federal agencies to secure a resilient supply chain for essential medicines through the creation of the Strategic Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients Reserve (SAPIR).

Under the order, the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response is to identify roughly 26 critical drugs for inclusion in the reserve.

The measure reflects concern that only about 10% of APIs are currently produced in the U.S., with most imported from India and China.

The administration has also announced plans to impose tariffs on certain medications, with details yet to be disclosed, in an effort to encourage domestic manufacturing and bolster supply chain security.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israel rules out partial Gaza deal, Iran official visits Lebanon

An Israeli diplomatic source told Egypt’s Cairo News that Israel does not intend to resume talks on a partial agreement for Gaza. The only issue under discussion, the government-affiliated outlet reported, is the release of all hostages in Gaza under Israel’s terms, which include the disarmament of Hamas.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir visited southern Lebanon yesterday and stated that since the ceasefire in Lebanon began on 27 November, the Israeli Air Force has conducted about 600 airstrikes and killed more than 240 Hezbollah operatives. “We are operating according to a new strategic concept, and we will not allow threats to grow,” Zamir said.

And Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has now approved the long-stalled E1 settlement project, which would create a contiguous bloc of Israeli communities linking East Jerusalem to the Ma’ale Adumim settlement. The development would effectively separate East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank, in what critics have previously described as a “death blow” to the two-state solution.

Meawnwhile, in a meeting yesterday in Beirut with Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Lebanese President Michel Aoun declared, “We reject any interference in our internal affairs. It is forbidden for anyone to bear arms and to use foreign backing as leverage.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, after his own meeting with Larijani, said, “Lebanon is a small country that has long suffered from the interference of others. It is time to turn the page. Lebanon will not accept being used as a platform to settle scores or to send regional messages.”

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

A new wave of violent clashes in Serbia’s anti-government protests

On 13 August, Serbia saw a sharp escalation in anti-government demonstrations, which have persisted for more than nine months following the deadly railway station canopy collapse in Novi Sad.

In Novi Sad, supporters of President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) attacked protesters using flares, firecrackers, sticks, and truncheons, prompting police intervention to break a tense standoff. At least 16 police officers and around 60 SNS supporters were reported injured. Authorities have blamed foreign interference for the unrest, while opposition groups accused Vučić’s loyalists of instigating the violence.

Belgrade also saw confrontations, with riot police deploying tear gas to disperse anti-government demonstrators near government offices. Pro-government camps remained positioned outside the presidency, and police blocked protesters from advancing toward parliament.

Violent incidents spread to several other cities, including Kraljevo, Kragujevac, Čačak, and Niš. In some locations, pro-government supporters hurled flares and bottles, damaging property and provoking retaliation.

These developments mark a critical escalation in one of the most sustained and widespread protest movements in Serbia in recent years.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Attack on Russian paramilitaries in Mali

On 13 August, a convoy of the Africa Corps, a Kremlin-controlled paramilitary force composed largely of former Wagner mercenaries, was ambushed by jihadist fighters near the town of Ténenkou in central Mali.

The operation took place as Russia shifts from reliance on the Wagner Group to the more state-integrated Africa Corps, which operates under the Ministry of Defense in Moscow and has assumed many of Wagner’s former missions in Mali.

Reports from channels linked to Wagner confirmed casualties among Africa Corps personnel, highlighting the severity of the attack and marking what is described as the group’s first significant battlefield loss in the country.

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