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What you need to know

Trump and Putin meet in Alaska as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Alaska late on 14 August. The schedule for today’s summit in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin indicates it will begin at about 11:00am AKDT (3:00pm EDT) and last roughly five hours, after which Trump will depart for Washington at about 5:45pm AKDT (9:45pm EDT).

Washington is seeking a ceasefire rather than a final settlement to the war in Ukraine.

Kyiv and major European powers remain opposed to any agreement that would cede Ukrainian territory.

Trump is said to be considering offering Putin access to mineral resources in Alaska as an incentive to halt hostilities, though given Russia’s own abundance of resources and its close ties with China (which dominates global rare earth processing) the potential appeal of such an offer is unclear.

The U.S. is also weighing tighter sanctions on Russia, having recently raised tariffs on India in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

The outcome of the summit remains uncertain but could have far-reaching implications for U.S. and European geopolitics.

Overnight, on day 1,269 of the Russian invasion, Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks on Russia since the war began. Among the targets was the Rosneft refinery in the city of Syzran in Saratov region, which has the capacity to process 8.5 million tonnes (9.4 million tons) of oil annually. Ukrainian forces also claimed to have struck the port of Olya in Russia’s Astrakhan region, hitting a vessel carrying drone components and ammunition from Iran.

On the ground, both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a recent Russian infantry breakthrough near Pokrovsk in the Donbas, which began last weekend, has turned into a debacle for Moscow. Following deployment of elite Azov National Guard units over the past 48 hours, Russian sources acknowledged that troops in the salient have been cut off from their main forces and are isolated from resupply.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

U.S. deploys warships after Chinese vessels collide near Scarborough Shoal

A collision between a Chinese Navy ship and a China Coast Guard vessel near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea has led to the deployment of two U.S. Navy warships to the area. The Chinese vessels were reportedly pursuing a Philippine Coast Guard ship when the incident occurred, causing significant damage to one of the Chinese ships. In the aftermath, at least one China Coast Guard vessel and eight Chinese maritime militia boats were observed conducting search-and-rescue operations 15–25 nautical miles (28–46 kilometers or 17–29 miles) east of the shoal. The U.S. warships were sent to monitor the situation and support freedom of navigation in the contested waters, where tensions have risen following a series of recent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

America First

U.S. escalates operations against Mexican cartels

Since we reported yesterday that a U.S. drone, at the request of Mexican authorities, had been used to surveil cartel operations inside Mexico earlier in the week, American military and law-enforcement activity targeting the cartels has intensified.

Numerous U.S. military aircraft have been observed operating over the Caribbean Sea. The Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of additional air and naval forces to the southern Caribbean to counter drug-trafficking networks in Latin America.

The United States has also announced sweeping measures against two major Mexican cartels, combining criminal charges, financial sanctions, and bounty offers.

The Justice Department has unsealed indictments against five senior members of the United Cartels, including its leader, Juan José Farías Álvarez, known as “El Abuelo,” accusing them of conspiring to manufacture and distribute methamphetamine, fentanyl, and cocaine for the U.S. market.

In a separate action, the Treasury has sanctioned 13 Mexican businesses and four individuals tied to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel for allegedly running a timeshare-fraud scheme that targeted elderly Americans, defrauding victims of nearly $300 million between 2019 and 2023. These measures block access to the U.S. financial system and bar any dealings by American persons or companies.

U.S. and EU refine joint trade statement, awaiting auto-tariff reduction

Negotiators from the European Union and the U.S. are working to finalize a joint trade statement intended as a roadmap for upcoming discussions, exchanging drafts in the hope of reaching agreement soon.

The effort builds on a framework signed in July by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump, which introduced a 15 per cent baseline tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., effective 7 August.

One unresolved issue is the executive order required to lower the current 27.5 per cent tariff on imported automobiles to the agreed 15 per cent. Brussels remains cautiously optimistic, noting that Washington has made political commitments to this change.

The agreement also caps tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals at 15 per cent following U.S. trade investigations, while setting zero tariffs for aircraft, components, certain chemicals, generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, select agricultural products, and critical raw materials.

Steel and aluminum remain subject to 50 per cent duties, though these may later shift to quota-based arrangements.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Hezbollah chief warns against disarmament and threatens escalation

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem delivered a video address from an undisclosed location on 14 August, warning of severe consequences should the Lebanese government proceed with plans to disarm the group.

Qassem declared that Hezbollah would not surrender its weapons and accused Lebanon’s political leadership of implementing the directives of Israel and the U.S., even at the risk of provoking civil war and internal strife. Qassem described the government’s decision as a grave violation of the ‘Coexistence Charter’ that could plunge the country into a major crisis. He urged the army to avoid involvement in internal conflict, claiming that its leadership does not wish to take such a course, and called for a strategy to confront “aggression” rather than “hand over the country to the Israeli tyrant.”

Qassem warned that the government would bear responsibility if Lebanon’s internal situation collapsed, hinting openly at the possibility of civil war. He asserted that most Lebanese believe the country cannot rely solely on the army or diplomacy for protection, and that the “resistance” must remain armed. He pledged to defend Hezbollah’s arsenal, vowing to fight what he described as the “Israeli-American project”. He also cautioned that forthcoming street protests and unrest could extend to the U.S. Embassy in Beirut.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Germany’s foreign minister visits Japan and Indonesia to bolster Indo-Pacific ties

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has embarked on a multi-day visit to Japan and Indonesia to strengthen political, economic, and security ties under Berlin’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The trip focuses on reducing critical dependencies on China, particularly in supply chains, raw materials, and advanced technologies.

In Tokyo, Wadephul is scheduled to meet Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa and other senior officials to discuss maritime security, defense cooperation, and adherence to international law in the region, including freedom of navigation.

In Jakarta, talks will focus on securing access to critical raw materials such as nickel and rare earths, as well as cooperation on green energy and digital infrastructure.

The visit reflects Germany’s 2023 National Security Strategy, which calls for diversifying trade partners and building deeper links with like-minded Indo-Pacific democracies, and is expected to include discussions on stability in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and broader regional defense coordination.

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