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What you need to know

Trump hosts Zelensky and European leaders at the White House

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, joined by a group of European leaders and NATO’s Secretary General, meets today with President Donald Trump at the White House in what may be the most important gathering on European security since the fall of the Soviet Union.

The meeting follows the encounter between Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Details of that summit remain vague: both the luncheon with delegates and the afternoon session were canceled. Since then, observers have tried to piece together each side’s position from public remarks.

What we do know: After the talks with Trump, Putin signed a decree that could pave the way for foreign investors, including ExxonMobil, to return to the Sakhalin-1 oil project.

Putin also claimed in his presser with Trump that that since Trump’s administration came to power, bilateral trade with the U.S. has grown by 20%.

The European leaders attending today’s White House meeting include Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Today’s Schedule
12:00 p.m. ET – European leaders arrive at the White House
1:00 p.m. ET – Trump greets Zelensky
1:15 p.m. ET – Oval Office bilateral meeting between Trump and Zelensky
2:15 p.m. ET – Trump greets European leaders
2:30 p.m. ET – “Family photo” with European leaders
3:00 p.m. ET – Multilateral meeting in the East Room

Zelensky’s position
Zelensky said Ukraine is considering EU membership as part of its security guarantees. He stressed that Ukraine’s constitution makes territorial concessions “impossible” and insisted that such matters could only be addressed in a trilateral format. If Russia refuses, he argued, further sanctions must be imposed.

Upon arriving in the U.S., Zelensky declared: “… peace must be lasting, not like it was years ago, when Ukraine was forced to give up Crimea and part of Donbas, which Putin then used as a springboard for another attack. Or when Ukraine received so-called security guarantees in 1994, which proved worthless. Crimea should not have been surrendered then, just as Ukrainians did not surrender Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022. Ukrainians are fighting for their land and independence. Our soldiers are making gains in Donetsk and Sumy regions. I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, guarantee its security, and that our people will remain grateful to President Trump, to America, and to every partner and ally for their support. Russia must end this war, which it started itself. Putin is not offering peace, but surrender. The situation is very serious, not only for Ukraine but for Europe.”

The U.S. stance
Washington claims to have secured a Russian concession allowing NATO-style Article 5 guarantees to extend to Ukraine. Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff, said Russia would also amend its laws to pledge not to attack European countries.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that new sanctions alone would not compel Russia to stop the war. He emphasized that both sides must compromise, while stressing that the U.S. does not back ceding all of Donbas to Russia, despite earlier reports suggesting Trump’s support for such a move.

Unconfirmed reporting from the summit
According to media leaks, Putin’s proposal for ending the war includes:

While some of these demands would be acceptable to Ukraine and Europe, like giving Russian official linguistic status, freedom for the Russian Orthodox Church to operate in Ukraine, and even a partial lifting of sanctions on Russia, the rest of the demands would amount to a surrender, which neither Ukraine, nor its European backers, appear ready to concede.

On the ground, it appears that last weekend’s breakthrough by Russian infantry in the Donetsk region has been repulsed by elite Ukrainian troops. Ukraine also, this morning, hit a Russian oil pipeline that supplies Hungary, cutting off the oil flow. Meanwhile, Russia hit several Ukrainian cities overnight with missiles and drones, including Kharkiv and Odesa.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Hamas reviews new Gaza ceasefire proposal

Hamas has received a new Israeli ceasefire proposal for Gaza and is expected to issue a response later today. The offer is being discussed by representatives of Hamas and other intermediaries in Cairo today.

The suggested terms include the disarmament of Hamas, the exile of its senior leaders, the return of all hostages held in Gaza, and Israeli security control over 25% of the territory. The plan also calls for the establishment of a new governing authority, excluding both Hamas and Fatah, that would formally recognize peace with Israel.

Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya dismissed the idea of unilateral disarmament. He said that the group would only consider giving up weapons as part of a wider political process that produced a Palestinian state.

The negotiators in Cairo face growing pressure to reach a deal. Mediators from Egypt and Qatar, backed by the U.S., have sought for months to end the endlessly accelerating cycle of violence that has devastated Gaza since Israel walked away from the last ceasefire process in March.

The proposed government structure, excluding both of the main Palestinian movements, recalls earlier attempts by outside actors to create technocratic administrations.

Whether Hamas accepts or rejects the proposal, the talks mark the most serious attempt in months to halt the conflict. Any agreement would reshape not only the future of Gaza but also the balance of power within Palestinian politics, and would have an effect on the broader region, which is again teetering on the edge of renewed conflict..

US envoys press Israel to honor ceasefire commitments in Lebanon

A high-level American delegation met Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun in Beirut this morning, urging Israel to fulfill its obligations under the ceasefire agreement and withdraw from disputed border points still under its control.

The delegation included the U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, the U.S. Ambassador to Syria, and Morgan Ortagus, the Deputy U.S. Envoy for the Middle East, whose re-emergence is notable after several months of being sidelined.

The visit was led by the U.S. Ambassador to Syria, Tom Barrack, who declared that the Lebanese government had “done its part” by formally beginning the process of disarming Hezbollah. “They’ve taken the first step,” Barrack said. “Now what we need is Israel to comply with that equal handshake.”

President Aoun welcomed the delegation and used the occasion to press for greater international support. He called for additional funding and training for the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are under strain as they take on expanded security responsibilities, and for the acceleration of international commitments to rebuild areas of southern Lebanon damaged in recent Israeli strikes.

Ortagus’s presence added weight to the meeting. Once a prominent voice in American Middle East diplomacy (known for her opposition to Hezbollah and good relations with Israel), she had been sidelined in recent months as Washington recalibrated its Lebanon and Syria portfolios and Barrack asserted himself as the leading American diplomat in the Levant. Her reappearance in Beirut suggests an effort to reassert her role, particularly as U.S. officials attempt to balance demands for Hezbollah’s disarmament with assurances that Israel will abide by the ceasefire.

The talks highlight Washington’s delicate balancing act. By pushing Israel to withdraw from the remaining positions, the U.S. seeks to reinforce the credibility of the ceasefire while avoiding any impression that Hezbollah’s disarmament process lacks enforcement. At the same time, bolstering the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces remains central to U.S. policy, intended both to reduce Hezbollah’s military dominance and to stabilize a fragile state reeling from economic collapse and political gridlock.

Iran closes Western embassies as tensions rise

The embassies of the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland in Tehran closed their public services yesterday without explanation, heightening speculation about worsening security conditions in Iran.

Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned that “another war is likely.” He said Iran was not in a ceasefire but “in a phase of war,” stressing that no protocol, regulation, or agreement exists between Iran, the U.S., or Israel. “It is possible another war will break out,” he added.

Reports of widespread GPS jamming surfaced yesterday across Iran, fueling concern that military preparations are under way.

Over the weekend, Iran tested and deployed the Russian-made S-400 air defense system at its nuclear facility in Isfahan. The deployment follows Israel’s destruction of nearly all Iranian air defense assets during October 2024, which allowed Israeli forces to conduct an unopposed 12-day air campaign over Iran in June. Several Russian heavy transport aircraft have also landed at Iranian bases, most notably Hamadan Air Base, where they are believed to have delivered additional S-400 batteries or Su-35SE multirole fighter jets.

Tensions flared further yesterday when Israeli air defenses intercepted a missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi movement, underlining the regional dimensions of the conflict.

The escalation coincides with a worsening domestic crisis. Iran faces an acute shortage of water, with reservoirs depleted, aquifers exhausted, and drought conditions intensifying across much of the country. The water crisis is now a strategic vulnerability, compounding the possibility of social unrest and underlining the ineffectiveness of the government in providing basic services.

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