What you need to know

Positive vibes, but little detail from European leaders’ meeting with Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky navigated a diplomatic minefield on Monday, joined at the White House by a powerful delegation of European leaders.

Since his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, President Donald Trump has pressed for a peace deal that would require territorial concessions from Kyiv.

This latest encounter was far smoother than the tense public confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in February. It ended on a largely positive note, though with few specifics.

The most substantive progress concerned security guarantees for Ukraine, with the U.S. promising to provide them. Yet details remain scarce. The so-called “Coalition of the Willing”—a group of 31 countries committed to strengthening Ukraine—agreed to work with Washington on a common framework for these guarantees. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer described this as an “Article-Five-like” accord, meaning a lasting agreement that would be enforced if necessary and carry consequences if breached by Putin. The promise of a U.S. “backstop” was presented as a key victory for Kyiv.

Events on the battlefield have strengthened Ukraine’s hand in recent days. Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian infantry breakthrough near Dobropillya in the east. Meanwhile, Kyiv announced the successful test of the domestically produced Flamingo cruise missile, now entering mass production. If its declared specifications are accurate (range of 3,000km (1,864 miles) and a 1,140kg (2,513lb) warhead) the weapon outstrips the capabilities of Russian cruise missiles, placing both Moscow and St. Petersburg within range.

Zelensky told journalists that Putin had proposed a two-stage format for future diplomacy: a bilateral meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents, followed by a trilateral summit including Trump. Secretary of State confirmed that Putin wants to meet with Zelensky, adding that the U.S. was working to facilitate this meeting.

Ukraine has indicated that it will offer Trump a $100 billion weapons deal (equivalent to around $100 billion) in exchange for security guarantees. Under the proposal, Kyiv would pledge to buy $100 billion worth of American weapons, financed by Europe, while Washington would sign a $50 billion deal (around $50 billion) on drone production with Ukrainian firms.

Still, as Kyiv has long insisted, Ukraine will not accept any agreement that includes territorial concessions to Russia. Moreover, it demands a ceasefire as the first step toward a comprehensive peace settlement, whereas Moscow insists that talks begin while fighting continues.

There’s progress. And the summit was certainly positive, but we are a long way still from peace in Ukraine.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Trump declares Hamas must be destroyed, Hamas accepts ceasefire proposal

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social yesterday that the remaining hostages in Gaza would be released only once Hamas is “confronted and destroyed,” adding that “the sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be.”

Shortly after, Arab media reported that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators. The terms, as we reported previously, include the disarmament of Hamas, the exile of its senior leadership, the release of all hostages held in Gaza, and Israeli security control over 25% of the territory. The plan also envisions a new governing authority, excluding both Hamas and Fatah, that would formally recognize peace with Israel.

Lebanon’s pro-Iranian channel Al-Mayadeen reported further details. These include: Israeli withdrawal up to 1,000 meters (0.62 miles) from the north and east of Gaza, excluding Shuja’iyya and Beit Lahia; the release of 140 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 60 serving more than 15 years, in exchange for ten hostages; the release of all female and minor detainees; and, for each deceased hostage returned, the transfer of ten Palestinian bodies. The agreement also envisages revised Israeli Defense Force redeployment maps in northern and eastern Gaza.

Large-scale humanitarian assistance would follow immediately, including fuel, water, electricity, medical and bakery rehabilitation, and debris-removal equipment, in line with the agreement of 19 January 2025. Distribution would be managed by the United Nations, the Red Crescent, and other international institutions. The Rafah crossing would reopen in both directions under the terms of the earlier accord.

Almost immediately after news of Hamas’s acceptance of the deal, Israeli forces began heavy artillery bombardment of Gaza City and advanced into its outskirts.

Two steps forward, two steps back.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

China and India seek to ease tensions as foreign ministers meet

While President Donald Trump was hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders in Washington, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in a bid to reduce tensions along their disputed border and revive broader cooperation.

The meeting, held against a backdrop of strained ties since the deadly Galwan Valley clashes of 2020, focused on three priorities: de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control, resumption of suspended trade flows, and renewed collaboration on regional and global issues. Both sides agreed that disengagement at sensitive frontier points was essential to restore trust, though neither government announced concrete steps.

Wang stressed that China and India “should be partners, not adversaries,” describing the relationship as critical not only to Asia’s stability but also to the wider international order. Jaishankar, while echoing the call for dialogue, reiterated that lasting peace along the border was a prerequisite for normalization of broader ties.

Trade between the two countries remains uneven. Bilateral commerce has grown steadily, with China ranking as India’s largest trading partner, yet New Delhi has raised barriers on Chinese investment and technology imports amid security concerns. The ministers discussed easing some of these restrictions, particularly in pharmaceuticals, green energy, and electronics, sectors where mutual dependence is pronounced.

The talks also touched on wider strategic themes. Both sides acknowledged the need to cooperate on multilateral platforms such as the BRICS grouping and the G20, where their interests often align on reforming global financial institutions and resisting Western protectionism. At the same time, they remain rivals for influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, where Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and New Delhi’s “Act East” policy frequently collide.

The encounter, while cordial, underscored the fragility of the relationship. For Beijing, rapprochement with New Delhi would blunt the effect of U.S.-led security coalitions such as the Quad. For India, dialogue with China is necessary to keep tensions from boiling over, even as it deepens military cooperation with Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra.

The planet will be fine, it’s the humans who should be worried

Record wildfires and heat force closure of Camino de Santiago in Spain

Spain is grappling with its most severe wildfire season in two decades, compounded by a prolonged heatwave that has seen temperatures soar to 45 °C (113 °F). Authorities have closed a 50-kilometer (31-mile) stretch of the famed Camino de Santiago pilgrimage route in Galicia and Castile-León, warning of extreme fire risk in surrounding forests.

The scale of destruction has been stark. More than 344,000 hectares (850,000 acres) of land have burned so far this summer, dwarfing the annual average and devastating rural communities. Vineyards, olive groves, and farmland across central and northern Spain have been scorched, disrupting harvests and forcing hundreds of families to evacuate. At least four people have been killed in fire-related incidents, and dozens more injured.

Spain’s meteorological agency reported that the country has endured 16 consecutive days of extreme heat, the longest such stretch since modern records began. The relentless conditions, coupled with persistent drought, have turned vast areas of woodland and scrub into tinderboxes. Firefighters, supported by water-bombing aircraft, have been battling multiple simultaneous blazes, stretching resources thin. Portugal and France have dispatched reinforcements, echoing the pan-European cooperation seen during recent wildfire crises in Greece and Italy.

The closure of the Camino de Santiago is especially symbolic. Each year hundreds of thousands of pilgrims and tourists walk the ancient route, designated a UNESCO World Heritage site. Officials stressed the measure was temporary but necessary, citing safety concerns as fires approached within a few kilometers of the trail. Local businesses, many of which rely on pilgrimage tourism, warned of heavy economic losses.

Spain has experienced a series of record-breaking fire seasons in recent years, but this summer’s combination of heat, drought, and wind has pushed conditions to new extremes. Scientists say the Mediterranean basin is warming 20% faster than the global average, making southern Europe one of the regions most vulnerable to climate-driven wildfires.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief

When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VCs behind Uber and eBay also backed Pacaso. They made $110M+ in gross profit to date. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO. Now, you can join, too.

Invest for $2.90/Share

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.}