What you need to know

Attention turns toward security guarantees for Ukraine as war grinds on

Diplomatically, following Monday’s meeting in Washington, D.C., between President Donald Trump, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders, attention is shifting to security guarantees for Kyiv short of NATO membership.

NATO defense chiefs have met virtually to scope options, and Washington and several Europeans continue to push for a possible meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky.

Switzerland, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Belarus have offered to host a Putin–Zelensky encounter, but Kyiv has rejected a Russian proposal to hold it in Moscow. The two leaders last spoke by phone in July 2022, four months after Russia’s invasion began. Discussions of “NATO-like” guarantees continue.

A joint American–European–Ukrainian commission led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly drafting options, led on the U.S. side by the secretary of state, with national security and military advisors from Ukraine and Europe, in the hope of settling a framework by Friday. Trump has floated providing air support to underpin a peace arrangement while ruling out U.S. ground troops.

Trump spoke yesterday with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about Ukraine’s potential accession to the European Union; Orbán, a long-standing opponent, reiterated his resistance to Ukranian EU membership after the call in a social media post.

The basic lines of division endure. Ukraine says it is not prepared to give up territory, although some diplomats have floated the notion of territorial “swaps,” perhaps linked to the Russian region of Kursk, where Ukraine has maintained a limited foothold for over a year. Russia’s ground offensive has been largely static for more than two years, its war of attrition producing marginal gains at very heavy cost.

Russia’s economy also shows mounting strain, with rising refined-fuel prices and shortages, some firms shifting to four-day workweeks, and the military often providing the most reliable income in many regions. Ukraine claims to have knocked out about 13% of Russia’s refinery capacity in August alone.

The economy remains dependent upon oil sales. Rather than target Russia directly, Washington is pressing India. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview given to CNBC yesterday, before the war, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia, now share is near 42%. The resulting arbitrage (buying discounted Russian crude, re-exporting refined products, and pocketing an estimated $16 billion in excess profits) was described by Bessent as unacceptable.

Any international security presence to protect Ukraine would require tens of thousands of European troops, since the U.S. has said it would provide air cover but not ground forces. Despite brave rhetoric, it is not clear that European governments are willing to take that risk, or that they have the deployable forces to do so.

On the battlefield, Russia launched fresh missile and drone strikes overnight, damaging a gas-distribution site in Odesa region and hitting targets around Kharkiv and the Donbas. Germany, with U.S. backing, plans to send two additional Patriot anti-missile systems to Ukraine in the coming weeks, bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses.

Heavy fighting continues near Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian commanders say a sizable Russian grouping is encircled.

In occupied Zaporizhzhia, a Ukrainian drone strike caused local power outages; the IAEA still warns that the nuclear plant’s power supply remains fragile, even with reactors in cold shutdown.

Ukraine continues long-range drone pressure against Crimea and Russian logistics, Russia has answered with larger strike packages, and the Black Sea Fleet remains dispersed after two years of largely successful Ukrainian attacks.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israel outlines Gaza City assault as Netanyahu hardens hostage terms

In response to Hamas saying it accepted a draft peace proposal, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said his government would no longer accept a phased return of hostages, insisting that all remaining captives be released at once.

Today the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plans to call up between 60,000 and 80,000 reservists for an assault on Gaza City.

The plan, approved on 19 August by Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, envisages five IDF divisions, totaling tens of thousands of troops, joining the operation, which the military has dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots B.”

It foresees 14 brigade-level teams, including infantry, armor, artillery, and engineering units, with the Gaza Division’s northern and southern brigades in the lead.

The Nahal and 7th Armored Brigades are already engaged in the Zeitoun area, while Givati advances toward Jabalia.

Humanitarian provisions assume the evacuation of around one million civilians to the south, with new aid sites and field hospitals to be established. There are ongoing talks with international medical aid groups aim to reopen the European Hospital in Khan Younis and expand medical capacity for the expected hundreds of thousands of wounded and traumatized civilians.

Operationally, commanders intend to proceed in stages: civilian evacuation, the encirclement of Gaza City, then deep urban combat to dismantle remaining Hamas infrastructure.

Reserves will be mobilized in waves, with 40,000–50,000 expected to report by 2 September; in combination with extended service, about 130,000 reservists will be active, though not all will take part in the Gaza City fighting, with some reinforcing other fronts such as the West Bank and the border with Lebanon.

Druze leader seeks U.S.-backed aid corridor to Sweida

Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, Israel’s Druze spiritual leader, met U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack, who also serves as ambassador to Türkiye, in Paris on 19–20 August to press for protection of Druze in southern Syria.

Tarif presented materials alleging Syrian government involvement in last month’s killings in Sweida and urged U.S. backing for a humanitarian corridor into the province under American auspices.

The Paris diplomacy sits within a broader U.S.-mediated track. Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani held rare talks in Paris with an Israeli delegation focused on stabilizing southern Syria and re-energizing the 1974 disengagement framework along the Golan frontier. Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer took part on the Israeli side. These meetings are aimed to frame practical steps such as de-escalation mechanisms and border arrangements.

Background: Sweida has faced severe violence and siege conditions since late July, following mass killings of Druze civilians during fighting in southern Syria in the spring and summer. That bloodshed spurred local mobilization against Damascus and drew international attention. Precise casualty figures and responsibility remain contested.

If substantiated and accepted by U.S. officials, Tarif’s dossier could shape Washington’s leverage in talks with Damascus and set conditions for next steps on the ground.

The parties are exploring a U.S.-backed aid channel into Sweida as a trust-building step with Damascus. Practical options would likely require UN or ICRC implementation, plus deconfliction guarantees from security actors controlling approaches to the province.

America First

U.S. moves Aegis destroyers off Venezuela amid counter-narcotics push

The U.S. is deploying three Aegis-equipped, Arleigh Burke–class destroyers to international waters off Venezuela within the next 36 hours, part of a broader counter-narcotics campaign against Latin American cartels.

Caracas has responded with defiant rhetoric and domestic security measures, including a 30-day suspension of civilian drone operations, with exceptions for security and defense agencies.

The overall U.S. pressure campaign also includes sanctions and criminal designations against regional trafficking networks, including Tren de Aragua, and a U.S. reward for information leading to the arrest of President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro that is widely reported at up to $50 million.

Regionally, the deployment comes amid shifting politics and fraying security ties, including tensions between Colombia and Venezuela over alleged sanctuary for the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and the remnants of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla groups, and a rightward electoral drift in Latin America, developments that help explain Washington’s decision to signal resolve at sea while tightening legal pressure ashore.

It will be interesting to see whether U.S. forces announce interdictions tied to the new naval posture, whether Venezuelan air or maritime shadowing occurs, and whether the drone ban is extended beyond the initial 30 days. We should also expect coordinated measures such as sanctions, indictments, and extraditions that could link the maritime pressure to outcomes in American courts.

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