What you need to know

U.S. and EU unveil trade framework

Yesterday, in a joint statement, the United States and the European Union announced a new framework for trade.

The agreement eliminates European Union tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, grants unprecedented access for American farmers, fishermen and ranchers to European markets, commits the EU to meet $750 billion (€690 billion) in U.S. energy demand during President Donald Trump’s term, and promises $600 billion (€552 billion) in new European investment in America.

The framework, set to take effect on 1 September, covers products including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.

Brussels will remove tariffs on U.S. industrial exports and broaden access for agricultural and seafood products, while Washington will cap most duties on EU goods at 15% and exempt critical sectors such as aircraft, generic pharmaceuticals and natural resources.

Beyond tariffs, the framework emphasizes cutting non-tariff barriers. Washington and Brussels have pledged to recognize each other’s automobile standards, expand technical cooperation between standards bodies, and extend conformity assessments to more industries.

They also promise to resolve disputes in agriculture, such as streamlining certification for U.S. pork and dairy. The EU has committed to address American concerns over its Deforestation Regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, seeking to reduce bureaucratic costs and limit their impact on U.S.–EU trade.

On technology, the EU will continue to recognize U.S. conformity assessment bodies under the existing telecom agreement and will negotiate a new deal on cybersecurity standards. Both sides also vow to coordinate on export restrictions imposed by third countries on critical minerals.

The framework deepens cooperation in strategic sectors:

Together these measures highlight the scale of the $5 trillion transatlantic trade relationship, combining tariff reductions with broader commitments on standards, sustainability and supply chains, and thus providing certainty.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Peace hopes in Ukraine fade after Trump-Putin talks

The excitement over a possible peace deal in Ukraine, following the Alaska meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump’s session with European leaders on Monday, has rapidly evaporated.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s refusal to accept security guarantees for Ukraine yesterday effectively ended Moscow’s talks with Washington, despite claims of an understanding between Trump and Putin. Putin’s demands have actually increased, and now include Kyiv giving up the Donbas region, renouncing NATO membership and accepting a ban on Western troops on Ukrainian soil.

On the battlefront: Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukrainian forces struck the Unecha oil pumping station in Russia’s Bryansk region, part of a wider campaign to degrade Russian and Belarusian refining capacity. The facility feeds the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies crude to the Mozyr refinery in Belarus. By targeting Unecha, Ukraine aims to indirectly disrupt operations at Mozyr, whose capacity is about 14.5m tonnes a year (16m tons)

Ukraine is also striking the Russian railway system, the backbone of Moscow’s logistics. Russia does not use palletized systems for transporting military equipment by truck, a practice the U.S. military has employed since WWII. Instead, Russian trucks are unloaded container by container by hand, multiplying loading times and leaving rail as the only efficient means of moving goods. In August alone, Ukrainian forces have carried out 19 attacks on substations, dispatch centers and railway control points.

Italy arrests Ukrainian linked to Nord Stream sabotage

Italian authorities have arrested a Ukrainian man suspected of directing the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, an attack that ruptured one of Europe’s most consequential energy lifelines.

The suspect, identified as Serhii K., is a retired Ukrainian army captain and former officer in the SBU, Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service. He reportedly commanded an elite unit that defended Kyiv during Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Nord Stream blasts in September 2022 destroyed sections of the undersea pipelines that carried Russian gas to Germany, abruptly severing an energy artery that had long symbolized German-Russian interdependence.

The arrest in Italy adds a dramatic twist to one of the most politically sensitive mysteries of the war. Western governments initially pointed fingers at Moscow, suspecting that Russia had sabotaged its own infrastructure to pressure Europe.

Later investigations in Germany and Scandinavia increasingly turned toward Ukrainian operatives, suggesting Kyiv may have acted to prevent Russia from leveraging gas as a weapon.

The Italian arrest sets the stage for potential extradition proceedings, likely to Germany, where prosecutors have been running the most advanced inquiry. How the case proceeds will not only shed light on the Nord Stream mystery but may also reshape the political fallout and affect relations between Ukraine and Europe.

American First

Trump administration widens sanctions on ICC judges and prosecutors

The United States has escalated its campaign against the International Criminal Court (ICC), imposing sanctions on two judges and two deputy prosecutors over their roles in issuing arrest warrants against U.S. and Israeli nationals.

Those targeted include Judge Nicolas Guillou of France and Judge Kimberly Prost of Canada, along with deputy prosecutors Nazhat Shameem Khan of Fiji and Mame Mandiaye Niang of Senegal.

The ICC condemned the sanctions as a “flagrant attack” on judicial independence, while the United Nations warned that they risk weakening the foundations of international justice. Several European governments expressed dismay, with France calling the move unacceptable. Israel, by contrast, welcomed the decision, with Netanyahu praising it as a “decisive stand” against what he called a smear campaign.

This is not the first time the U.S. has used sanctions against the ICC. In February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing asset freezes and visa bans on court officials investigating U.S. or Israeli nationals.

During his first term, Trump also sanctioned ICC prosecutors over probes involving U.S. forces in Afghanistan, though those measures were later lifted under President Joe Biden.

Move fast and break things

Trump administration to review all U.S. visa holders

The administration of President Donald Trump has launched a sweeping review of all 55 million people holding U.S. visas, examining whether they have committed violations that could render them deportable.

The review, which covers categories ranging from tourist and student visas to employment-based permits, represents one of the most far-reaching audits of America’s immigration system in modern history.

Officials say the aim is to identify “deportable violations,” a term that could encompass overstaying visas, breaches of work restrictions, fraudulent applications or security-related concerns.

Although U.S. immigration agencies already monitor compliance on a case-by-case basis, the move signals an intent to apply systemic scrutiny across the entire population of foreign visa holders.

The initiative adds to the Trump administration’s wider attempt to reshape immigration policy, from asylum restrictions to heightened scrutiny of green-card applicants. By targeting such a vast population, it raises questions about whether U.S. immigration institutions are equipped to carry it out.

New York court overturns Trump fraud penalty

A New York appeals court has thrown out the $465 million civil fraud penalty imposed on President Donald Trump, a ruling that hands him a significant legal and political victory.

The penalty, levied after a lengthy civil trial, had accused Trump of inflating the value of his assets to secure favorable loans and insurance terms.

The appeals court held that the trial judge had exceeded his authority in both the scale of the penalty and the scope of the underlying claims. While the court did not dispute that Trump and his company had engaged in questionable accounting practices, it found that the state had not proven harm to lenders or insurers sufficient to justify such sweeping sanctions.

For Trump, the ruling eliminates one of the largest civil liabilities he faced and lifts the threat of forced asset sales that might have imperiled his business operations. It also provides a political boost as he campaigns for a second term, allowing him to portray the case as part of what he calls a politically motivated “witch hunt.”

The ruling also raises questions about the limits of state-level enforcement in high-profile financial cases. Critics of James’s case say the judgment was always vulnerable, given that the banks involved had not alleged they suffered losses. Supporters argue that the outcome shows the difficulty of holding powerful figures accountable for financial misrepresentation under current law.

For now, the decision strengthens Trump’s narrative of resilience against what he depicts as politically driven attacks. Whether it shifts public opinion beyond his base is less clear, but the elimination of nearly half a billion dollars in liabilities will reinforce his claim that the legal system is starting to vindicate him.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israel ready for talks as IDF enters Gaza City & Egypt masses troops in Sinai

As Israeli forces enter Gaza City and Egyptian troops reinforce the border with Gaza to prevent an influx of refugees, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated he has directed the “immediate initiation of negotiations” for the release of all hostages held in Gaza and for ending the war “on terms acceptable to Israel.”

Once a location is set, Netanyahu has said he will send a delegation empowered to negotiate both the fate of the hostages and the conditions for halting hostilities, though Israeli officials insist that any settlement must reflect Israel’s red lines on security.

The announcement came against the backdrop of a damaging leak. A hacked Israeli military database, released yesterday, suggested that 83% of Palestinians killed in the conflict were civilians, a figure that, if verified, would fuel mounting international criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war.

Netanyahu is also under tremendous domestic pressure to halt the war, with historically unprecedented demonstrations last weekend bringing the country to a halt.

There are also heightened military tensions across the region. Iran yesterday conducted unannounced military exercises (which NATO observed with aircraft over Iraq and Iran). Iran has deployed advanced Russian S-400 air defense systems around its nuclear facility at Isfahan. And the U.S. has been operating a Boeing WC-135R “Constant Phoenix” nuclear sniffer aircraft in the region, testing for the presence of radioactive materials.

Meanwhile, Egypt has reinforced its military presence in North Sinai. More than 40,000 troops, along with advanced weapons systems and air-defense units, have been deployed in the sector of Sinai that directly borders Israel and Gaza. Under the Camp David accords of 1979, Egypt is not permitted to station significant forces in this area without Israel’s consent. Cairo’s build-up suggests either tacit Israeli approval or a deliberate challenge to treaty constraints.

The convergence of Israeli moves toward negotiations amid intensification of military operations in Gaza, revelations about civilian casualties, military exercises in Iran, and Egypt’s military build-up shows the war’s destabilizing regional impact.

A ceasefire deal would hinge not only on Israel and Hamas but also on Egypt, which has historically played the role of broker, and Qatar, which hosts Hamas leadership and provides financial support to Gaza.

WH presses Israel to ease Lebanon strikes amid disarmament push

The Trump administration has asked Israel to scale back “non-urgent” military operations in Lebanon, in order to give diplomatic space for a new push to disarm Hezbollah and other armed factions.

The first stage of the plan targets Palestinian factions in Lebanon under the control of Fatah, the party that governs the West Bank. An agreement on this was reached in May between the Lebanese government and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, with implementation scheduled for mid-June.

For Hezbollah, this development is viewed as a precursor to a direct challenge to its own arsenal. The militia has long presented its weapons as a guarantee of deterrence against Israel and as part of Lebanon’s “resistance” identity.

Hezbollah leaders know that disarming Palestinian groups is the thin end of the wedge, and that the true objective is to strip Hezbollah of its remaining stockpile of missiles and its entrenched paramilitary infrastructure.

The stakes are high. Hezbollah is not only Lebanon’s most powerful non-state armed actor but also its most politically influential, controlling ministries and parliamentary blocs. Any attempt to neutralize the group risks destabilizing the already fragile Lebanese state. Yet the Lebanese government, under intense U.S. and Israeli pressure, now finds itself pressed to deliver on promises of disarmament in the name of sovereignty and security.

Israel, for its part, has welcomed the diplomatic initiative but remains skeptical. Officials in Jerusalem doubt whether Beirut can enforce disarmament agreements against Palestinian or Hezbollah factions without triggering violent backlash.

For Washington, persuading Israel to limit military action buys time, but whether the disarmament process can gain traction remains uncertain.

The effort marks the boldest attempt in years to dismantle Lebanon’s patchwork of armed groups. If it succeeds, it could alter the country’s balance of power and reshape its role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. If it fails, it risks accelerating confrontation between Hezbollah, Israel and the Lebanese state itself.

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