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Ukrainian forces reported gains in the Donbas, with President Volodymyr Zelensky citing “very positive results.” Russian units retreated in Donetsk and Luhansk, where Ukrainian brigades seized territory near Hrekivka and threatened encirclement of 1,000 Russian troops. Kyiv also struck Russia’s Ust-Luga port, disrupting Novatek’s gas terminal, which processes 13 million tons (14.3 million U.S. tons) of LNG annually. The U.S. approved delivery of 3,350 ERAM missiles, though Washington continues to restrict ATACMS strikes into Russia. And in the U.S., the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has fired the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, adding to a growing list of high level personnel removed from their positions this year. And Australia is allowing Papua New Guinea citizens to join its defense force to stave off growing military manpower shortages and shore up the relationship with PNG in light of Chinese expansion in the South Pacific.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Ukrainian forces advance in Donbas

President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed “very, very positive results in Donbas” over the weekend, hinting at battlefield gains that he said would be detailed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. Reports from the front suggest that Russian units are retreating along several axes in Donetsk and Luhansk, as Ukraine presses what can be described as a mini-counteroffensive.

In Donetsk, the 425th Assault Skala Regiment launched a surprise offensive on the town of Malynivka, about 14km (9 miles) east of Pokrovsk. In neighboring Luhansk, troops from the Presidential Brigade advanced after taking Hrekivka, seizing more than 4 sq km (1.5 sq miles) northeast of the settlement. Russian forces fell back to Novovodyane, east of the Zherebtsi River. An estimated 1,000 Russian troops are at risk of encirclement as their supply lines come under threat.

Ukraine also hit Russia’s Ust-Luga port and Novatek’s gas-processing terminal near Saint Petersburg on Sunday. Approximately ten Ukrainian drones struck Ust-Luga, a facility critical to energy exports that handles up to 13 million tons (14.3 million U.S. tons) of liquefied natural gas each year. The site processes stable gas condensate into naphtha, jet fuel, heating oil, and other distillates. Industry officials estimate that it may take weeks, or possibly months, for Novatek to restore the terminal to full capacity.

Kyiv’s momentum on the battlefield comes as new weapons are promised from abroad. The U.S. has approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Active Missiles (ERAMs), capable of striking targets up to 450km (280 miles) away, with delivery expected within six weeks. Their use, however, must be coordinated with the Pentagon. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal revealed that a little-known Pentagon mechanism has barred Ukraine from firing U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles into Russian territory since late spring. According to the WSJ, at least one request by Kyiv to do so was denied. The restriction, intended to keep pressure on Moscow to engage in peace talks, has limited Ukraine’s military options. The review process was devised by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for policy, and also applies to European-supplied systems that rely on American intelligence or components.

Meanwhile, as we reported last week, Ukraine has unveiled its most powerful homegrown weapon to date, the Flamingo (FP-5) cruise missile, developed by the domestic defense firm Fire Point. The missile carries a warhead of about 1,150 kg (2,535 lb) and has a range of roughly 3,000 km (1,864 mi), placing Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and most of European Russia within striking distance. It flies at speeds close to 950 km/h (590 mph), guided by a combination of satellite and inertial systems designed to resist jamming. Serial production is already under way, with output expected to reach 210 units per month by October 2025.

  • The Flamingo joins a growing arsenal of Ukrainian-designed strike systems, including the extended-range Long Neptune, the hybrid missile-drone Palianytsia, the low-cost Trembita, and the Hrim-2 ballistic missile, all aimed at reducing Kyiv’s dependence on tightly restricted Western-supplied long-range munitions.

European industry, meanwhile, is struggling to meet Ukraine’s insatiable demand for ammunition. Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, has criticized Kyiv’s bureaucracy for delaying the construction of an artillery shell plant on Ukrainian soil, citing red tape and slow approvals. He contrasted the sluggish pace with a similar facility in Germany, which is already complete and operational. Once built, the Ukrainian site is expected to produce up to 300,000 shells a year; ammunition is vital to sustaining prolonged combat in the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is possible between Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

Cold War 2.0

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Australia and Papua New Guinea agree on military recruitment pact

Australia and Papua New Guinea are preparing to sign a landmark defense treaty on 15 September 2025, deepening military cooperation and allowing more than 10,000 Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian Defence Force with a pathway to citizenship.

Under Australian law, non-citizens who enlist must apply for citizenship within 90 days, and dual nationality will be permitted.

Papua New Guinea’s Defense Minister Billy Joseph said most recruits would fill support roles such as trades, logistics, and driving, with recruitment hubs planned in Port Moresby, Lae, and Manus Island.

Modeled on Britain’s Gurkha regiments, the scheme is designed to bolster an ADF struggling with manpower shortages while strengthening Australia’s strategic partnership with Papua New Guinea amid China’s growing influence in the Pacific.

The plan has provoked debate: critics warn of a potential skills drain from Papua New Guinea’s own defense force and question the ethics of recruiting foreign citizens to fill Australia’s ranks, while supporters view it as a natural continuation of the two countries’ shared military history (Australia is the former colonial power in PNG and fought key battles there during WWII) and an opportunity for closer integration.

South Korea’s Lee meets Trump, will talk alliance strategy

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is due to meet President Donald Trump in Washington today, with talks expected to cover an unusually broad agenda: the costs of hosting U.S. forces, the long-term shape of the alliance, trade terms, nuclear fuel policy, and cooperation in shipbuilding. The summit comes on the heels of a recent deal to cap U.S. tariffs on Korean exports at 15 percent and to unlock a US$350 billion investment package, which Seoul hopes will anchor its economic partnership with Washington.

Yet strains are evident beneath the show of unity. Lee has signaled resistance to American calls for “strategic flexibility,” a Pentagon term for widening the mission of U.S. Forces Korea beyond the peninsula to counter China across the Indo-Pacific.

  • Speaking before his departure, Lee said that South Korea could not “easily agree” to such demands, and instead urged discussions on what he called a “future-oriented strategic transformation” of the U.S. military presence.

  • His formulation reflects a balancing act: reaffirming Seoul’s reliance on U.S. security guarantees while avoiding entanglement in Washington’s rivalry with Beijing.

The outcome of the meeting will influence not only the trajectory of the bilateral alliance but also wider Indo-Pacific security and trade arrangements, as Washington presses regional allies to contribute more to deterrence against China, and the White House continues to pressure allies to address balance of trade issues with the U.S.

Indonesia launches Super Garuda Shield drills with U.S. and allies

Indonesia, backed by the U.S. and 12 partner nations, has begun this year’s iteration of the Super Garuda Shield military exercise, one of the largest joint drills in the Indo-Pacific. The 2025 exercise, currently under way in Jakarta and across training sites in Sumatra, brings together some 6,500 troops in combined land, sea, and air operations. It will culminate in a large-scale live-fire demonstration on 4 September.

The drills include contingents from Japan, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, France, Britain, and several ASEAN partners, highlighting the growing effort to knit together regional militaries in the face of mounting Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and beyond. Training covers amphibious landings, joint air operations, missile defense, and cyber warfare, reflecting the increasingly complex nature of modern security cooperation.

For Indonesia, which has long pursued a policy of non-alignment, the exercise is a statement of both capability and intent. Jakarta has sought to present Super Garuda Shield as a contribution to regional security rather than a move directed at any single power. Yet its scale and the prominence of U.S. participation inevitably send a signal to Beijing, which has bristled at what it views as an encroaching U.S.-led security network in its near seas.

Super Garuda Shield has expanded rapidly since it was first conducted as a bilateral U.S.-Indonesian drill in 2009. It is now a central fixture in the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific training calendar and a key opportunity for the Indonesian military to modernize its interoperability with allied forces. The 2025 exercise, with its mix of regional and extra-regional participants, underlines how Indonesia has become an increasingly important hub in efforts to maintain stability across the Indo-Pacific.

Trump Administration

Move fast and break things

Hegseth fires Pentagon intelligence chief after Iran report

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed Lieutenant General Jeffrey A. Kruse, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, after a leaked assessment on U.S. strikes against Iran concluded that the attacks had delayed Tehran’s nuclear program by only a few months rather than destroying it.

The firing adds to a sweeping reshuffle of the military and intelligence leadership under Hegseth, who has already removed General Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief and vice chief of staff of the Air Force, the chief of naval operations, and General Timothy Haugh, head of the National Security Agency.

Lawmakers in Congress warned that the dismissals risk politicizing intelligence and military advice.

The Pentagon said Christine Bordine would serve as acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

New Europe

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Merz says German welfare model is unaffordable

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that the country’s welfare system, in its current form, is no longer financially viable, arguing that economic output cannot keep pace with ballooning social spending.

Speaking at a Christian Democratic Union gathering in Osnabrück, he cited record welfare expenditures of €47 billion ($51.6 billion) in 2024, rising unemployment, and the strain of an aging population as evidence that the model is structurally unsound.

Merz maintained that reforms are inevitable but ruled out raising taxes on medium-sized firms, the backbone of Germany’s economy.

His remarks have heightened tensions within the coalition, as the center-left Social Democratic Party resists cutbacks while others in government have floated raising the retirement age to 70.

The debate reflects mounting fiscal and political pressures on Germany’s social safety net at a time of slowing growth and demographic decline.

African Tinderbox

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Somali prime minister attends China–Arab States Expo in Yinchuan

Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre arrived in Yinchuan today to attend the 7th China–Arab States Expo, a biennial gathering that highlights Beijing’s ambition to act as a bridge between the Arab world and Africa. The event draws senior officials and business leaders from across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa to discuss trade, infrastructure, and energy cooperation.

For Somalia, participation carries both symbolic and practical weight. Barre is expected to seek Chinese investment in infrastructure, agriculture, and fisheries, sectors that Mogadishu regards as vital to stabilizing an economy battered by decades of conflict and still dependent on foreign aid.

  • China is already a significant trading partner, importing Somali livestock and fish products while exporting consumer goods and construction materials.

The visit reflects Beijing’s widening influence in the Horn of Africa, where it maintains its only overseas military base in Djibouti and has invested billions of dollars in ports, railways, and digital infrastructure.

Somalia is currently under heavy pressure from an insurgency led by the Al Shabaab terrorist group, aligned with Al Qaeda. Al Shabaab fighters have been taking large swathes of territory and are now on the outskirts, indeed in the suburbs, of the Somali capital Mogadishu. Barre is presumably hoping that China will provide military support. Somalia already has a close military relationship with Türkiye and receives assistance from the U.S. and the UAE also.

For Mogadishu, cultivating closer ties with China offers not only capital and trade but also diplomatic cover at the United Nations, with the breakaway region of Somaliland lobbying hard for the U.S. to recognize its independence.

Barre’s appearance in Yinchuan signals Somalia’s intention to integrate more firmly into the Belt and Road Initiative’s economic networks, even as it continues to rely heavily on Western security assistance to combat Al Shabaab insurgents at home.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

U.S. begins troop withdrawals from key Iraqi bases

U.S. combat forces have begun withdrawing from Ain al-Assad air base in western Anbar province and from Victory Base Complex near Baghdad International Airport. Troops are also expected to depart in the coming days from Union III, the military compound adjoining the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The drawdown follows the September 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad to shift from a combat-support role under Operation Inherent Resolve, the mission against the Islamic State, to a bilateral diplomatic and military partnership.

U.S. forces remaining in Iraq will be based in the Kurdistan Region until at least September 2026. NATO’s Training Mission-Iraq will continue to provide advice and technical assistance to the Iraqi armed forces, while U.S. troops will retain the ability to deliver emergency combat support if required.

Operation Inherent Resolve has always operating in Iraq in a rather legally precarious manner. Its presence was justified by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2249 of November 2015, along with a series of diplomatic letters between the two governments. There has never been a formal status-of-forces agreement authorizing the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, a framework that is normal in similar deployments.

Israeli strikes hit Sana’a after Houthi missile attack

Israeli warplanes struck the Yemeni capital Sana’a overnight, targeting four sites: the presidential palace, two power stations, and a fuel depot. According to the Houthi-controlled Health Ministry, the raids killed six people and wounded at least 86.

Military sources said roughly a dozen Israeli aircraft were involved, dropping around 35 precision munitions. The strike package required multiple in-air refuelings given the distance from Israel to the Yemeni capital. The palace compound sustained heavy damage, and large parts of Sana’a experienced power outages after the attacks on electricity infrastructure.

The strikes came in response to a Houthi missile launch against Israel on Friday, in which the group fired a projectile fitted with multiple warheads. Although the attack caused no casualties and only minor property damage, the missile appeared to bypass elements of Israel’s layered air-defense system, raising concern in Israeli military and political circles.

The exchange marks one of the most direct confrontations between Israel and the Houthis, who are backed by Iran and have expanded their reach well beyond Yemen’s borders. It underscores both the vulnerability of regional infrastructure to retaliatory strikes and the growing technological sophistication of Houthi weaponry.

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What happened today:

325 - Council of Nicaea concludes, establishing Christian orthodoxy and the Nicene Creed. 1718 - Treaty of Passarowitz signed, ending the Austro-Turkish War between the Ottoman Empire and the Habsburgs. 1768 - Captain James Cook departs England aboard HMS Endeavour on his first Pacific voyage. 1830 - Belgian Revolution begins with uprisings in Brussels against Dutch rule. 1991 - Belarus declares independence from the Soviet Union.

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