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South Korean President Lee Jae-myung held a successful meeting with President Donald Trump yesterday, with several big Korean investments announced. Meanwhile, Australia has expelled the Iranian ambassador and will designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, following intelligence reporting of Iranian involvement in terrorist attacks in Australia. This, while Australia is attempting to head off a large investment deal between China and the South Pacific nation of Nauru. Syria’s international relations continue to progress, with a U.S. delegation in Damascus yesterday, but it’s internal political unity remains extremely fragile.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Trump and Lee meet at the White House

On 25 August 2025, President Donald Trump hosted President of South Korea Lee Jae-myung at the White House.

Despite sharp posts by Trump that morning about controversies in Seoul, the meeting was cordial.

  • Ahead of the meeting, Trump had questioned church raids and a base search tied to investigations of former President of South Korea Yoon Suk-yeol, who is under investigation for an alleged attempted coup, which he later described in person as likely a misunderstanding.

Trump said he hopes to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before year-end, and Lee backed renewed diplomacy, while Pyongyang offered no immediate public response.

On alliance matters, Trump floated U.S. ownership, rather than leases, of land used by a major U.S. base in South Korea, and he declined to say whether he would reduce the roughly 28,500 U.S. troops stationed there. Lee spoke about modernizing the alliance and increasing defense spending.

Trump also said “we have a deal done” on a U.S.–South Korea trade framework, echoing July’s outline of about 15% tariffs and large South Korean investments, although no formal text or joint statement followed.

Timed to the visit, Korean Air announced an order for 103 Boeing aircraft. Separately, on Tuesday Hyundai Motor Group said it would raise its planned U.S. investment from $21 billion to $26 billion.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is possible between Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

Cold War 2.0

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Nauru’s China deal tests Australia’s new treaty

Nauru’s government says it has struck a A$1 billion ($650 million) “phase one” investment proposal with the China Rural Revitalisation and Development Corporation, spanning renewable energy, phosphate, fisheries, water, agriculture, transport and health.

  • Canberra learned of the plan via a public statement, and has sought clarifications from Nauru.

The timing is awkward. On 9 December 2024 Australia and Nauru signed a sweeping pact that cements Canberra as Nauru’s primary security partner. The treaty requires Nauru to “mutually agree” with Australia on any foreign partnership touching security, banking or telecommunications, and to consult Australia on other critical infrastructure, such as ports, aviation and energy.

The agreement enters into force only once both sides complete ratification.

  • Canberra has not yet ratified. Officials now want that done by next month, arguing the Chinese plan may cut across the pact’s provisions. Nauru has ratified, but says the proposal has not reached cabinet, hinting implementation is some way off.

The money matters, too. Under the December deal Australia pledged A$100 million ($65 million) in budget support and A$40 million ($26 million) for policing and security, in exchange for de facto veto rights over sensitive sectors. Those constraints are spelled out in Article 5 of the treaty.

Who, exactly, is on the Chinese side remains hazy. Public records for the named corporation are scant, and entities with similar names have appeared without verified links to Nauru’s counterpart. That, plus Nauru’s small scale, has raised doubts about whether the full A$1 billion ($650 million) will materialize.

Geopolitics lurks in the background. Nauru re-established ties with Beijing in January 2024 after severing relations with Taipei, and the Pacific has since seen intensified courtship by China and the U.S. and its partners. Australia’s quick push to ratify the treaty is designed to lock in its primacy on security and critical infrastructure before any large outside deal proceeds.

Note on law and process: because the treaty has not yet entered into force on Australia’s side, any “breach” at this stage would be political rather than strictly legal. If ratified, the pact would give Canberra formal standing to demand consultations, or withhold consent, on projects that touch security, banking, telecoms or other designated infrastructure.

Trump Administration

Move fast and break things

Trump administration weighs sanctions as internet free speech threats grow

The administration of President Donald Trump is weighing sanctions on European Union or member-state officials who enforce the Digital Services Act, reflecting U.S. worries about restrictions on American speech and extra costs for U.S. technology firms.

In Britain, the communications regulator, Ofcom, is said to be seeking to fine 4chan £20,000 ($26,928) under an online-safety law. 4chan’s lawyers called the move “an illegal campaign of harassment” and refused to pay. “American businesses do not surrender their First Amendment rights because a foreign bureaucrat sends them an email,” the legal team said.

But the issue is broader than just the European Union.

Brazil is advancing one of Latin America’s broadest internet-speech bills, presented as a child-protection measure. This week the Chamber of Deputies pushed Bill PL 2628/2022 forward with an “urgency” motion, skipping committee debate and using a symbolic vote, so no member had to be recorded in favor.

Rules that condition access on identity checks are also appearing in the United States. Bluesky social media recently blocked users in Mississippi, where a new state law, HB 1126, requires age and identity verification for access to any online service, regardless of content. Penalties can rise to $10,000 per user, a level that threatens smaller tech firms.

And California’s “Age-Appropriate Design Code” has returned to court. Framed as a child-safety measure, it reads more like a plan for mass identity checks and content controls. The Computer & Communications Industry Association, which represents Google, Amazon, Meta and eBay, filed an amicus brief with the Ninth Circuit in NetChoice v. Bonta. The case pits industry groups against California Attorney General Rob Bonta. The challengers argue that the statute would compel platforms to verify every user’s age, making anonymous speech difficult and deterring lawful access to information. They also say its restrictions clash with constitutional protections. Bonta’s office defends the law as a targeted response to risks facing minors online.

Overall, governments worldwide are moving toward identity-first access to the internet, heavier compliance burdens and wider liability for intermediaries. The risk, critics argue, is that child-safety branding masks rules that curb lawful speech, push users toward monitored identities and raise fixed costs that only the largest platforms can absorb.

Trump seeks to remove Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook

President Donald Trump posted a termination letter on Truth Social last night, saying he was firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

He cited a Justice Department investigation into alleged mortgage fraud, a claim that Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has also leveled at several of Trump’s political adversaries, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and California Senator Adam Schiff.

Presidents cannot dismiss Federal Reserve governors at will. They serve fixed terms and can be removed only for cause, a constraint that has long irked Trump in his disputes with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

  • Because Cook has not been convicted of any crime, the termination letter is unlikely to carry legal force and would probably be set aside by a federal court, or, if necessary, by the Supreme Court.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Australia expels Iranian diplomats after arson attacks linked to IRGC

Australia has accused Iran of orchestrating two antisemitic arson attacks and ordered Tehran’s ambassador, along with three other diplomats, to leave within seven days, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday. Canberra also announced that it would move to list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, a move it has avoided for years.

Australia’s Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) has linked the IRGC to two attacks last year: one targeting a Jewish-owned restaurant in Sydney, the other the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne.

Sanctions shift & U.S. visit reshape Syria’s international relations while serious domestic fractures remain

The U.S. Department of the Treasury said Syria sanctions regulations would be removed from the Code of Federal Regulations effective today, after President Donald Trump cited changes under President of Syria Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government.

  • Measures will remain on human-rights violators, designated terrorist groups and those tied to chemical-weapons activity.

Banks and payment networks have begun reactivating Syrian institutions on SWIFT, and Syria has started to reappear as a destination in some banks’ transfer menus.

On 25 August 2025, al-Sharaa met a U.S. delegation in Damascus led by U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack and joined by Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Congressman Joe Wilson. The delegation also met in Damascus with Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces Mazloum Abdi, whose movement administers an autonomous zone in northeast Syria. Abdi’s willingness to travel to Damascus points to warmer ties with the new government, although it does not signal readiness to fold the autonomous area back under central control.

Talks covered Syria and wider regional dynamics. The visit followed Barrack’s meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli ministers to discuss Syria-Israel negotiations. Barrack has recently argued that any future Syrian state should protect minority rights and might evolve into something “less than federated,” a phrase that appears to suggest a decentralized arrangement. In the past two months, Barrack has also said Syria should not be a federal state, while adding that borders drawn by European powers after the First World War may merit review.

At home, Syria remains fractured. Israeli forces occupy strategic areas in the west and southwest. Elements of the Syrian Druze have risen against Damascus and are cultivating ties with Israel. Alawite communities in the coastal provinces are seething after massacres by government-aligned gunmen in March. Southern rebels clustered around Deraa remain reluctant to submit to Damascus, and most of the northeast is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. A reduced but persistent Islamic State insurgency operates in the eastern deserts. Meanwhile, al-Sharaa’s own camp is split between loyalists to him personally and several Islamist factions he appears to struggle to manage.

Diplomatically, al-Sharaa has chalked up notable gains, yet the country itself remains extremely fragile.

Barrack meets Aoun as Israel links withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament

U.S. envoy Ambassador Tom Barrack and Deputy Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus met with President of Lebanon Michel Aoun this morning, following discussions with Israel over withdrawal from five strategic points in south Lebanon and the Lebanese government’s commitment to disarm Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, yesterday, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would withdraw from the five military positions in southern Lebanon if the Lebanese Armed Forces “take the necessary steps to implement the disarmament of Hezbollah.”

  • Also, yesterday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said the group would never give up its weapons, despite a recent cabinet decision in Beirut that Hezbollah must relinquish them.

Lebanese officials have also prepared a plan to disarm Palestinian factions in Lebanon affiliated with Fatah, the party led by President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas.

Many in Beirut view that step as a prelude to tackling Hezbollah’s arsenal, although it does not by itself indicate imminent disarmament of the group, which would present serious security challenges for Lebanon.

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What happened today:

55 BC - Julius Caesar begins first invasion of Britain. 1914 - Togoland surrenders to Anglo-French forces. 1920 - 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is certified. 1940 - Chad declares for Free France. 1944 - Charles de Gaulle leads a victory march in Paris. 1957 - Soviet Union announces successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. 1966 - Namibian War of Independence begins at Omugulugwombashe. 1968 - Democratic National Convention opens in Chicago. 1999 - Russia begins the Second Chechen War. 2008 - Russia recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 2014 - Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire. 2021 - Kabul airport bombing kills 13 U.S. service members & at least 169 civilians.

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