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What you need to know

Indonesia steadies today after deadly protests last week and over the weekend

As of this morning, Indonesia (which is the fourth largest country by population and the world’s largest Muslim nation) is contending with a week of protests over parliamentary perks that turned deadly, prompting President Prabowo Subianto to cut lawmakers’ benefits, freeze overseas trips, and cancel a planned visit to China.

Over the weekend (30–31 August), a crowd looted Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s private residence in Bintaro, South Tangerang, before soldiers secured the property. Several lawmakers’ homes in Greater Jakarta were also attacked and ransacked, including those of Ahmad Sahroni, Surya “Uya Kuya” Utama, and Eko “Patrio” Hendro Purnomo, with reports of smashed gates, vandalism, and theft; police say arrests were made. Over 600 protestors have so far been detained.

Official premises were targeted outside the capital as well: regional parliament buildings were torched or vandalized in multiple provinces, and a blaze at Makassar’s council complex left at least three people dead, with looting of office equipment also reported at some sites.

Jakarta was mostly calm today, with no major clashes reported. The Indonesian Army has deployed around the capital but has mostly avoided engaging with protesters.

Several student and civil-society groups suspended planned demonstrations amid a heavy security presence. Small crowds gathered near the DPR/MPR complex in Senayan under close monitoring, and previously tense areas (such as around Mako Brimob in Kwitang) remained orderly with traffic flowing. Compared with preceding days, activity in the capital was limited and tightly controlled, though protests and arrests continued in some other cities.

Markets dipped today, then steadied somewhat as officials reiterated support for financial stability.

The Jakarta Composite Index opened sharply lower, falling roughly 2.7–3.5% amid the political unrest, then pared losses to close down 1.21% at 7,736, while the blue-chip LQ45 slipped 1.06% to about 789. Market breadth was weak (171 gainers versus 539 decliners, 99 unchanged) on turnover of roughly Rp 23.35 trillion, pointing to broad risk aversion. Among notable laggards were Bank Jago, Kalbe Farma, and MAP Aktif Adiperkasa.

Indonesia has not seen protests like this since the 1998 revolution that overthrew the regime of President Suharto and ushered in the democratic era. It remains to be seen if the current government will be able to maintain stability in the face of great public anger with what they see as an entitled and isolated political class.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference brings US rivals together

The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is underway in Tianjin (31 Aug–1 Sep), with China in the chair.

Attendees include China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Narendra Modi, Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian, Central Asian leaders, and Belarus, now a full member. The UN Secretary-General is also present for an “SCO Plus” engagement.

The tone so far: Xi has urged rejection of “Cold War mentality” and pledged roughly $280m in assistance to SCO members; Putin has cast the Ukraine war as a Western-provoked conflict and leaned into a “multipolar order” narrative; Modi has foregrounded counter-terrorism and terror-finance and met both Xi and Putin on the margins before departing Tianjin.

Leaders are expected to endorse a Tianjin Declaration and a ten-year development strategy, though final texts have not yet been published.

Xi–Putin optics have been tightly choreographed, while the UN–SCO interface has been highlighted through meetings with the SCO secretariat.

Looking ahead, the key variables are the final communiqué’s wording on Ukraine, Gaza, and “terrorism” (we’ll probably see a lowest-common-denominator phrasing acceptable to both India and Iran), the granularity behind Xi’s aid pledge (channels, conditionality, projects), and any cues on security cooperation and border coordination.

Russia intensifies strikes on cities as Ukraine targets more oil infrastructure

In the past 24 hours, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine has flared across several fronts. Russian forces pressed their advance into Sumy Oblast, while no new territorial shifts were reported in the Donbas or around Kursk.

Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with drones and missiles, hitting oil facilities and further curbing the country’s energy output.

Russia responded with one of its largest barrages of drones and missiles in recent weeks, striking 14 Ukrainian regions including Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kyiv, and Dnipro. The attacks killed and wounded civilians, damaged energy sites, and cut power to tens of thousands of households.

Russia’s economy is showing more signs of strain. Oil and gas revenues have dropped sharply, non-oil income has collapsed, inflation is running at about 9%, and the budget deficit has widened beyond expectations.

Persistent Ukrainian drone strikes on oil facilities have worsened fuel shortages and driven prices higher.

President Vladimir Putin, currently at the SCO, has turned to China and India to reinforce trade ties and ease the financial and strategic pressures now bearing down on Russia’s war economy.

Philippines opens forward base in Batanes near Taiwan

On 28 August 2025, the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ Northern Luzon Command inaugurated a forward operating base in Mahatao, Batanes, on Batan Island in the Luzon Strait, about 190 km (120 miles) from Taiwan.

The site will host Navy and Marine units under the Northern Luzon Naval Command, including Marine Battalion Landing Team-10, with tasks to secure the Batanes Strait, monitor maritime traffic, support interagency operations, and strengthen humanitarian and disaster response.

Sitting astride the Bashi and Balintang channels, the choke points between the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, the base gives Manila a better vantage point from which to watch movements between Taiwan and Luzon and complements existing outposts in the Batanes chain, such as Mavulis, while shortening response times in a crisis.

This is likely to antagonize China, which has been clashing with the Philippines frequently over China’s own expansion into the South China Sea.

America First

U.S.–Venezuela tensions escalating without tipping into conflict

As of 1 September 2025, U.S.–Venezuela tensions remain elevated but short of open conflict.

Washington has surged naval forces to the southern Caribbean under an “enhanced counter-narcotics” banner, including several surface combatants, an amphibious assault ship and a submarine.

Caracas has mobilized militias, sent vessels into the Caribbean, and moved troops toward the Colombian border.

Social media accounts have claimed that a cyber attack has taken out power to large parts of the capital, Caracas, but this has not been verified by Venezuelan authorities.

The posture on both sides appears coercive rather than a prelude to conflict.

Sanctions policy by the U.S. has also been tightened: most of the 2023 sanctions relief was rolled back in late February, Chevron was told in March to wind down joint ventures, and only narrow allowances persist, such as limited Chevron activity designed to prevent cash from reaching the government and continued licensing for LPG offloading.

On migration, a 29 August appellate ruling held that the Trump administration likely acted unlawfully in ending Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans, creating legal headwinds without immediately restoring all protections given earlier court actions and pending legal guidance updates.

In U.S. courts, the court-supervised auction of Citgo oil company’s parent (Citgo is owned by CITGO Holding, Inc., which in turn is controlled by Petróleos de Venezuela, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company) advanced on 30 August when a Delaware official recommended a winning bidder; a rival creditor is challenging, and a judge is due to decide after a September hearing, a step that further separates a strategic asset from Caracas.

Diplomatically, the U.S. line has hardened around the claim that President Nicolás Maduro clearly lost the 28 July 2024 election, with sanctions and messaging calibrated accordingly.

Overall, the near-term risk lies in maritime or air incidents and miscalculation, energy flows are likely to remain legally constrained and complex, the Citgo process may stiffen negotiating positions, and the migration question will continue to be fought in the American courts.

Both Washington and Caracas are playing brinksmanship right now, which is exactly the time when things can go wrong due to miscalculation of the intentions of the other side or accidental clashes.

U.S. trade policy faces legal setbacks amid more tariff threats from Washington

Over the past few days, U.S. foreign and trade policy has been marked by a series of significant developments.

A federal appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, imposed under emergency economic powers, were unlawful.

Despite the uncertainty, officials in Washington say trade talks with foreign partners are continuing.

At the same time, the president has proposed steep tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, including a 15% levy on European drugs and as much as 200% on imports from other regions. Analysts warn that such measures could raise prices by more than 10% and risk shortages of generic medicines.

Public sentiment has shifted against tariffs, with a growing majority of Americans opposed and consumers worrying about bearing the burden.

On the diplomatic front, relations with India have soured further after Washington imposed duties of up to 50% on Indian goods. Trade negotiations have stalled, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is actively seeking closer ties with regional partners such as Japan and China to offset the worsening U.S. relationship.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Tripoli’s fragile calm this morning as government confronts Radaa militia

Libya’s capital Tripoli this morning is tense yet mostly calm. The Government of National Unity (GNU) has given the Special Deterrence Force (Radaa) militia 48 hours to accept tighter state control while officials from the United Nations are warning of growing military mobilization around the capital.

Convoys of militiamen from Misrata have been observed moving toward Tripoli, likely to bolster GNU-aligned units if talks with Radaa fail.

The backdrop is the fighting we saw in May, after the assassination of Abdulghani “Ghneiwa” Kikli, commander of the Stability Support Apparatus militia.

A negotiated command reshuffle or a joint-control formula at Mitiga is more likely than forced disbandment, since Dbeibah simply does not have the forces to unseat Radaa.

Dbeibah, however, has shown overconfidence before in clashes with Radaa. He is buoyed by his success over the Stability Support Apparatus in May and by municipal voting facilitated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya in August.

Dbeibah is currently pressing the case that his government can curb autonomous armed actors, with Misrata networks, including the 111th, the 166th, and units tied to the 444th, now central to his security calculus.

In the east, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army is consolidating. Benghazi showcased new Russian systems in a parade in late May. Haftar will look to take advantage of any unrest in Tripoli to extend his own zone of control, with a push towards the capital not inconceivable.

The House of Representatives, based in the eastern city of Tobruk and allied with Haftar (and also opposed to Dbeibah’s government in Tripoli) has now advanced a multi-year development fund led by Belgasem Haftar. Haftar’s son, Khaled, who commands a major military unit, flew to Moscow over the weekend on a Turkish-registered private jet, indicating an attempt to coordinate with the Russians on any possible moves that Haftar might make against Tripoli if the city falls into outright conflict between Dbeibah’s forces and Radaa.

Nationally, oil output remains steady at about 1.38 million barrels per day, and the National Oil Corporation is courting further investment. Both Tripoli and Tobruk share in the oil revenues, despite their hostility towards each other.

Türkiye continues to engage both Tripoli and Benghazi to preserve stability, though it’s sympathies lie more with Tripoli.

In the near term, the highest risk is a localized clash around Mitiga airport in Tripoli if GNU–Radaa talks fail, with Misrata reinforcements likely to intervene on behalf of the GNU.

The Presidential Council last night ordered all forces to return to their barracks, in an attempt to avoid escalation.

Politically, de-escalation efforts by the United Nations are continuing, but the situation remains extremely tense and Libya is currently standing on the edge of a return to the civil war we saw in 2020.

Mexico’s 1st elected Supreme Court takes office amid scrutiny over independence

Mexico will formally seat its first Supreme Court composed of elected justices this Monday. Observers are watching closely to see whether it maintains independence from the ruling Morena party.

The court inherits around 1,400 pending cases, including sensitive issues like mandatory pretrial detention, abortion access, transgender rights, and mining law reforms.

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