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Coalition of the willing meeting - no concrete outcomes

The outcomes of the so-called Coalition of the Willing meeting, held at the Élysée Palace in Paris by countries presenting themselves as supporters of Ukraine, were predictably vague and of no immediate help to Kyiv.

The meeting was hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. It was attended in person by six other European Union leaders: Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who was unable to attend because of aircraft problems. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte joined remotely, as did leaders from about 20 countries across Europe and beyond. The leaders of Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand also attended virtually.

Among EU members, only Slovakia, Hungary, and Malta were absent. In all, representatives from 33 countries took part. Ahead of the meeting, Macron declared that allies had finalized security guarantees for Ukraine, now awaiting political approval. These guarantees, however, are contingent upon an eventual peace deal with Russia. Earlier in the week, Merz had emphasized that there were no concrete plans, “at least not in Germany,” to send troops to Ukraine.

After the meeting, European leaders held a call with U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump said he had no intention of imposing additional sanctions on Russia, and criticized Europeans for continuing to buy Russian oil and gas. Following the discussions, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any Western troops deployed in Ukraine would be treated as a “legitimate” target by Moscow.

Separately, Pentagon officials told European diplomats last week that the U.S. would stop funding programs that train and equip militaries in Eastern Europe, even those likely to be on the frontline in any future conflict with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. Spending for the scheme, which operates under an authority known as Section 333, requires approval by Congress, but the Trump administration has not sought further funds. Money already appropriated will last until the end of September 2026.

Between 2018 and 2022, the program directed $1.6bn (€1.47bn) [about $1.73bn] to Europe, roughly 29% of global Section 333 spending, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The main beneficiaries were Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Birth pangs in the birth place of civilization

Lebanon prepares debate on Hezbollah disarmament

The Lebanese government is scheduled to convene today to discuss an army proposal aimed at disarming Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite movement that remains the country’s most powerful armed group. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced in August a timeline requiring Hezbollah to lay down its weapons before the end of 2025, a move taken under mounting pressure from Washington.

The plan, drafted by senior commanders of the Lebanese Armed Forces, is expected to outline steps for integrating Hezbollah’s fighters into regular units, dismantling weapons depots, and asserting state authority over border areas long dominated by the group. Officials say the army will require substantial international assistance to enforce such a program, given Hezbollah’s entrenched position in Lebanon’s political and security landscape.

Hezbollah, which emerged in the 1980s with Iranian support during the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, has since developed into both a political party and the most powerful non-state armed group in Lebanon. It holds seats in parliament and cabinet, but also maintains an independent arsenal of rockets, drones, and armored vehicles. Its military wing has fought in Syria and Iraq, and it remains locked in sporadic clashes with Israel across Lebanon’s southern border.

Washington has long pressed Beirut to curb Hezbollah’s influence, linking military aid to progress on disarmament. The United States, which designates Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, has increased pressure in recent months amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah along the frontier.

The proposal to disarm Hezbollah is likely to face fierce resistance. The group insists that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel and has vowed never to surrender its weapons.

Analysts say even if the government approves the framework, implementation would be fraught. Lebanon is grappling with the aftermath of financial collapse, widespread corruption, and a paralyzed judiciary. The army itself struggles with budget shortfalls and relies heavily on Western and Gulf aid to pay salaries and maintain operations.

For Salam and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the gamble carries high stakes: failure to act could allow Hezbollah to reassert its deep influence over Lebanese politics and risks another war with Israel, while a forceful attempt at disarmament risks plunging the country into civil war. With tensions running high, Friday’s cabinet session may mark the beginning of one of Lebanon’s most contentious political battles in decades.

America First

Venezuelan jets challenge US warship

Two Venezuelan F-16 fighter jets flew over the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Jason Dunham while it was operating in international waters in the Caribbean. The encounter prompted Washington to issue a sharp warning to Caracas against interfering with American military activities in the region.

The Pentagon described the Venezuelan maneuver as “unsafe and unprofessional,” stressing that the destroyer had been engaged in lawful operations in international waters. Officials said such overflights risked escalating tensions at a time when U.S. naval deployments in the Caribbean are expanding. The Biden administration has recently stepped up maritime patrols and counternarcotics operations in response to increased trafficking flows and what American commanders describe as a surge in regional instability.

Venezuelan officials, in turn, accused the U.S. of conducting provocative missions close to their territorial waters. The flyover was framed by Caracas as a defensive response to what it sees as a foreign military buildup in its neighborhood. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has long portrayed U.S. military activities in the Caribbean as part of a campaign to destabilize his government.

The incident is the latest in a series of confrontations at sea and in the air between U.S. forces and Venezuela’s armed forces. In recent months, Venezuelan jets have shadowed American surveillance aircraft over the Caribbean, and the Venezuelan navy has increased patrols near disputed waters off Guyana, where oil discoveries have heightened tensions.

Even if both sides want to avoid direct hostilities, repeated close encounters risk miscalculation. For now, U.S. officials insist that American operations will continue unabated, with the Navy presence in the Caribbean set to expand in coming weeks, and 10 F-35 fighter jets being deployed to Puerto Rico.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Al-Shabaab attack on U.S. forces in southern Somalia

Al-Shabaab, the Somali jihadist group linked to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for what it described as a “qualitative operation” against “American crusaders” stationed at Kismayo airport on the evening of 5 September. The group said it targeted U.S. and Somali forces with mortars, boasting of inflicting casualties and damage.

Somali officials confirmed that indirect fire landed near the airport but reported no American or Somali fatalities. Local residents described hearing several explosions followed by sporadic gunfire. U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), which maintains a small presence of troops and contractors at the site, has not yet issued a statement.

Kismayo, the commercial hub of southern Somalia and a former al-Shabaab stronghold, hosts Somali government troops, African Union peacekeepers, and American military advisors who provide training and intelligence support. The port city has long been a strategic prize: al-Shabaab was expelled from it in 2012 but continues to mount attacks there, seeking to demonstrate its reach amid a steadily expanding campaign against the Somali government.

The incident recalls earlier al-Shabaab strikes on U.S. targets in the region. In January 2020, the group overran part of the American airbase at Manda Bay in Kenya, killing one U.S. soldier and two contractors and destroying aircraft. That attack, among the deadliest on U.S. forces in East Africa in recent memory, underscored both the group’s intent and its capacity for complex assaults. Similar raids have occurred against outposts in Somalia, where American advisors typically operate alongside Somali commandos.

The Kismayo attack also comes as Somali and African Union forces prepare for the next phase of the drawdown of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, which is scheduled to reduce its troop presence by the end of the year. Al-Shabaab has sought to exploit this transition, increasing pressure on Somali forces and now operating on the outskirts of the capital, Mogadishu.

For Washington, the incident highlights the persistent challenge posed by Somalia’s jihadist insurgency. The Biden administration has kept several hundred U.S. troops in the country to assist Somali units and conduct drone strikes against al-Shabaab commanders. Although American casualties in operations against al-Shabaab have been rare since Manda Bay, the group continues to single out U.S. forces in its propaganda, portraying them as occupiers and rallying support with threats against Western targets.

Analysts warn that such operations, even when militarily minor, are valuable for al-Shabaab’s propaganda machine. Attacks that can be filmed and broadcast help sustain recruitment and reaffirm the group’s defiance at a time when Somalia’s federal government is struggling to consolidate authority and it’s federal states remain divided by clan rivalries. With international forces gradually drawing down, the risk of more incidents targeting U.S. positions is likely to rise.

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