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Judge blocks expanded Guard deployment to Oregon

An Oregon federal court has widened its injunction against the Trump administration’s attempt to send National Guard troops to Portland, barring not only the redeployment of Oregon’s own Guard units but also the transfer of troops from other states.

Judge Karin Immergut, a Trump appointee, former U.S. attorney, and member of the Whitewater investigative team, ruled that the administration’s plan to dispatch 400 members of the Texas National Guard, along with units from California, was in “direct contravention” of an order she had issued earlier in the weekend.

Immergut’s latest decision, issued after she learned of a Defense Department memo authorizing the broader mobilization, extends the prohibition to any Guard forces from other states or from the District of Columbia. The order grants Oregon and California’s request to block the transfers and reflects the judge’s doubts that Portland’s unrest justified a military-style response.

Her injunction, in effect until at least 19 October pending further hearings, highlights a broader legal test of the administration’s claim that it can override state objections and deploy National Guard troops for domestic law-enforcement purposes.

America First

Trump plans land strikes on drug traffickers

President Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. military will begin striking drug traffickers on land, expanding a campaign that had so far focused on maritime operations in the Caribbean.

The move marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s self-declared armed conflict with drug cartels, which the administration has designated as foreign terrorist organizations to justify the use of military force. Trump offered no details on where or how the strikes would take place.

The plan raises substantial legal and diplomatic concerns. Conducting military operations within another country’s borders without consent would breach sovereignty and international law. It could strain relations with friendly regional governments such as Mexico and lead to conflict with unfriendly states like Venezuela.

Even if limited to drone strikes or special-operations raids, such actions risk civilian casualties, mistaken targeting, and prolonged involvement in complex local conflicts.

The birth place of civilization

Hamas rejects reports of disarmament deal as Cairo talks begin

Hamas has denied reports on 5 October by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath news outlets claiming that it had agreed to hand over its weapons to an Egyptian-Palestinian committee, calling the allegations “completely false” and describing them as deliberate attempts to misrepresent its position and weaken its leverage at the negotiating table. The movement said the reports were baseless and part of a broader effort to sow confusion as talks begin in Cairo.

At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and close advisor, are reportedly delaying their participation in the negotiations. According to Israel’s Kan public broadcaster, both men have left Washington but will not join the opening sessions immediately. Israel’s delegation is also proceeding cautiously. Although the negotiating team arrived in Cairo last night, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who officially heads the delegation, will remain in Israel and travel only if the discussions show tangible progress.

In an official statement, Hamas confirmed that its delegation, led by Khalil al-Hayya, head of the movement in Gaza, had arrived in Egypt to begin negotiations “on the mechanisms for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of occupation forces, and prisoner exchange.”

The Hamas statement made no reference to disarmament, instead presenting the talks as centered on three key objectives: ending the fighting, securing Israeli withdrawal, and arranging a prisoner swap.

The cautious posture on all sides reflects the fragility of the moment. Israel and the U.S. are holding their most senior negotiators in reserve, while Hamas seeks to maintain credibility amid rapidly diminishing bargaining power.

Syrian Elections

Yesterday, Syria held indirect parliamentary elections, the first of their kind since 2020. Rather than allowing citizens to vote directly, the system relies on a multi-tiered process: roughly 6,000 electors (chosen by subcommittees in each province) comprise the electoral colleges that select members of parliament from among 1,570 officially approved candidates.

Of the legislature’s 140 available seats, 120 will be filled through this process, while another 70 will be directly appointed by the government in Damascus. Twenty seats will remain vacant, as no elections were held in Raqqa, Hasakah, or Suwayda owing to security concerns and the regime’s incomplete territorial control there.

Electoral colleges are subject to limited gender requirements: at least 20% of electors must be women, but there is no quota for female representation in parliament itself. In practice, women make up fewer than 10% of electors in half of the provinces, continuing a historical pattern of low female participation; under Bashar al-Assad’s rule, women accounted for between 6% and 13% of parliamentary members.

Candidates were allowed to present their platforms through closed-door seminars and small debates during the week preceding the vote, but no public campaigning was permitted.

Ordinary Syrians report little awareness of who the candidates are or what they stand for, reflecting both the opacity of the selection process and the tightly controlled political environment.

The elections are overseen by an eleven-member Supreme Election Committee appointed by al-Sharaa, underscoring the centralization of the process within regime-aligned institutions.

It’s now America vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Germany blames Russia for unprecedented drone incursions

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Berlin believes Russia is behind a surge of drone sightings over airports and military installations across Europe, including Munich Airport, where disruptions stranded more than 10,000 passengers and forced dozens of flights to be canceled over the weekend.

Merz described the frequency of these incursions into European airspace as “unprecedented, even compared to the Cold War,” though he noted that none of the drones detected so far appeared to be armed. They seem instead to have been conducting reconnaissance flights aimed at NATO infrastructure.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed the concern, urging a swift enhancement of Europe’s air-defense and counter-drone systems while warning against overreaction or falling into what he called “Putin’s escalation trap.”

While Berlin’s assessment, and common sense, point toward Russian involvement, Merz admitted that the evidence remains circumstantial. No drone debris or signal data has yet been publicly traced to Moscow, leaving the attribution, though credible, short of conclusive proof.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

France’s political turmoil deepens as Lecornu resigns

France plunged back into political disarray after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned less than a month after taking office.

Appointed on 9 September 2025 to succeed François Bayrou, Lecornu unveiled his cabinet of 18 ministers on 5 October, only to submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron the following morning.

The abrupt departure followed weeks of paralysis in government formation and reflected the deep divisions within the National Assembly, where Macron’s centrist bloc no longer commands a majority. Lecornu’s cabinet, composed largely of veterans from earlier Macron administrations, failed to generate enthusiasm either on the left, which dismissed it as a continuation of past policies, or on the right, which deemed it insufficiently conservative.

His downfall illustrates the chronic instability that has haunted Macron’s second term. Lecornu was the president’s fifth prime minister in less than two years, following a series of short-lived governments felled by no-confidence votes and coalition rifts.

Financial markets reacted with unease, as French bond yields rose and equities slipped, reflecting investor concern over the government’s ability to pass a budget or advance reforms.

The resignation adds to the growing sense of drift in Paris, revealing a presidency hemmed in by parliamentary deadlock and a public increasingly disillusioned with its leaders.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Al-Shabaab infiltration suspected in Mogadishu prison attack

Closed-circuit television footage from Mogadishu has revealed new details about the 5 October attack on the Godka Jilicow prison, confirming that members of the militant group Al-Shabaab were responsible.

The assailants used a vehicle disguised as belonging to Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), complete with agency markings, uniforms, and identification cards. The ruse enabled them to pass unhindered through several checkpoints across the capital over a period of at least two hours.

Investigators now suspect that the operation involved inside assistance. A senior NISA officer, previously a defector from Al-Shabaab, has gone missing since the attack, heightening fears that the group may have moles within the agency. Security officials believe this insider link may have been crucial in breaching the multiple security layers surrounding the high-security detention complex.

The vehicle detonated inside the compound after reaching the second gate, causing heavy casualties and extensive damage.

Authorities have launched a comprehensive investigation into how the attackers obtained official NISA credentials and why the vehicle was not intercepted despite its extended movement in restricted areas. The incident highlights the continuing fragility of Somalia’s security institutions amid an intensifying and largely successful Al-Shabaab offensive this year.

Under threat worldwide

Mexico’s Morena Party proposes controversial anti-meme law

Mexico’s ruling Morena Party has unveiled a contentious “anti-meme law” that would make posting humorous or critical online content about politicians a criminal offense. The proposal, introduced by Morena congressman Armando Corona Arvizu, would impose prison sentences of up to six years on individuals who post memes, GIFs, stickers, or videos deemed to “humiliate politicians or public officials.”

Supporters argue that the measure is designed to protect the dignity of public servants and curb digital harassment. Critics, however, warn that it represents a serious threat to free expression.

Legal scholars point out that the proposal conflicts with Articles 6 and 7 of Mexico’s Constitution, which protect freedom of speech, and caution that its vague wording (particularly the undefined notion of “humiliation”) could be used to suppress dissent or satire.

The initiative appears consistent with a broader pattern in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration of seeking greater control over digital communications, mirroring earlier state-level efforts such as Veracruz’s short-lived “anti-meme” law.

If enacted, the proposal would almost certainly face constitutional challenges and provoke international criticism, especially from the tech industry, heightening fears that Mexico’s democratic space is shrinking under the banner of civility and public decorum.

Signal threatens to quit Europe over EU surveillance law

Signal messenger app has warned that it will withdraw from Europe rather than comply with a proposed European Union law that could spell the end of end-to-end encryption.

The legislation, known as “Chat Control 2.0,” would require messaging platforms such as Signal, WhatsApp, and Telegram to scan user messages before they are encrypted, ostensibly to detect child sexual abuse material and other illicit content.

Signal and cryptography experts maintain that no technical method exists to carry out such scanning without undermining privacy, creating vulnerabilities that will be exploited by hackers or authoritarian governments.

Legally, the proposal risks violating the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, which guarantees privacy and data protection, and could face challenges in the Court of Justice of the European Union.

Politically, the fate of the proposal now rests largely with Germany, which has long defended encryption but appears to be wavering under pressure from law enforcement agencies and other member states.

If Berlin shifts its position, the legislation could gain the momentum needed to pass, potentially forcing encrypted messaging services to withdraw from the European market altogether.

Signal’s warning is both a declaration of principle and a calculated threat, highlighting the danger that Europe may soon lose access to truly secure digital communication.

Move fast and break things

Trump urges FCC to review broadcast licenses of major networks

In a social media post, U.S. President Donald J. Trump urged the Federal Communications Commission to “look into” the broadcast licenses of ABC and NBC, intensifying his administration’s efforts to confront media outlets viewed as hostile.

The initiative recalls earlier efforts by allies of the president to question the neutrality of leading broadcasters and social media platforms, depicting them as part of an entrenched establishment biased against conservative voices. Critics argue that such actions blur the boundary between legitimate regulation and political coercion, threatening press freedom enshrined in the First Amendment.

Analysts note that the FCC, though formally independent, has increasingly been drawn into partisan battles over media regulation. Trump’s call to examine the licenses, while unlikely to trigger direct enforcement, may nonetheless energize his supporters by presenting the administration as standing up to a hostile media landscape.

Japan’s first female prime minister takes office

Japan has appointed its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, marking a milestone in the nation’s political history. Takaichi, a long-serving member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), secured the party leadership on 4 October 2025, effectively ensuring her rise to the premiership given the LDP’s dominance in parliament.

A veteran conservative known for her nationalist leanings, she previously held the posts of minister of internal affairs and communications and minister for economic security.

Her ascent is both historic and paradoxical. She has broken Japan’s highest political barrier, yet her ideological views remain firmly aligned with the party’s most traditionalist wing.

At home, she inherits a fragile parliamentary base, economic uncertainty, and mounting public expectations that her leadership might herald a turning point for gender equality in a country that consistently ranks low in female political representation. Yet her resistance to reforms such as same-sex marriage and female imperial succession has led many to regard her elevation as more symbolic than transformative.

Meanwhile, Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has climbed to 3.29%, the highest level on record, signaling a decisive shift in the country’s long-term debt markets. The increase reflects a combination of forces that have eroded the long-standing stability of Japanese government bonds. Chief among them is the Bank of Japan’s gradual retreat from its ultra-low rate monetary policy. By scaling back its bond purchases and relaxing yield-curve control, the central bank has allowed market dynamics to exert greater influence, pushing yields upward.

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