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What you need to know

Gold breaks $4,000 as geopolitical risk spikes

Gold has climbed past $4,000 an ounce for the first time, capturing the depth of global unease. The U.S. government remains shut down amid partisan paralysis, France is engulfed in political turmoil after the resignation of the Prime Minister yesterday, and Japan is bracing for a leadership transition amid serious economic headwinds.

Investors are watching the foundations of the postwar order tremble. Currencies look fragile, bond markets are distorted by years of central-bank intervention, and equities have become hostage to political brinkmanship.

As of mid-2025, the world’s largest official gold reserves remain heavily concentrated among a few major powers. The United States holds by far the biggest stockpile, at roughly 8,133 tonnes, followed by Germany with around 3,350 tonnes, and Italy and France with just under 2,500 tonnes each. Russia and China occupy the next positions, with holdings of about 2,336 and 2,264 tonnes respectively, while Switzerland, Japan, India, and the Netherlands round out the top ten. The International Monetary Fund itself also maintains a significant reserve of roughly 2,800 tonnes. 

America First

Trump ends Venezuela outreach as focus shifts from sea to land

President Donald Trump’s decision yesterday to order his special envoy to Venezuela, Richard Grenell, to halt all diplomatic outreach marks a distinct intensification in Washington’s approach to Caracas.

By closing Grenell’s back-channel efforts, the White House signals that engagement has run its course and that future U.S. policy will rely more on pressure than persuasion.

The timing aligns with Trump’s remarks to U.S. service members on Sunday, when he claimed that American strikes on vessels off Venezuela’s coast had curbed the maritime flow of narcotics and that attention must now turn to “the land.”

His words hinted at a possible expansion of operations inland, suggesting that the administration may consider operations on Venezuelan territory against traffickers or their alleged partners in the Venezuelan government.

As we have noted before, such a shift would bring greater legal and diplomatic hazards, potentially provoking confrontation with Maduro’s regime or backlash from regional governments.

The birth place of civilization

Hostage families urge Nobel recognition for Trump

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, an Israeli advocacy group representing relatives of those abducted during the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, has appealed to the Norwegian Nobel Committee to award President Donald Trump the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

In its letter, the group commended Trump’s efforts to secure the release of hostages and to end the war in Gaza, calling his initiative a rare act of decisive leadership and a genuine attempt at peace.

The Forum’s appeal came as talks continued in Egypt over the first stage of that plan.

The Nobel Committee’s list of nominees remains confidential for 50 years, and public lobbying is highly unusual.

The Peace Prize laureate will be announced on Friday, 10 October. With 338 candidates reportedly in contention, it’s hard to guess who is in pole position.

It’s now America vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Strikes near Zaporizhzhia plant raise fears again of nuclear catastrophe

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued a grave warning after a series of strikes were recorded just one kilometer (0.6 miles) from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, heightening the risk of a major nuclear safety incident.

The shelling occurred during a prolonged blackout that has left the facility disconnected from Ukraine’s national grid and dependent on emergency diesel generators to power vital cooling systems.

Although the reactors are in cold shutdown, the plant still contains large quantities of radioactive material that must be continuously cooled to prevent overheating.

The situation has been compounded by the strain on backup generators, which were designed for short-term use, not extended operation under wartime conditions. Any failure, whether due to fuel shortage, mechanical breakdown, or renewed shelling, could endanger reactor cooling or the integrity of spent-fuel storage.

Personnel at the site also face mounting risks, making routine maintenance and safety checks increasingly difficult. While there have been no confirmed reports of damage to reactor cores, and the IAEA team stationed at the plant has not detected radiation leaks, the proximity of these strikes is deeply concerning.

The attacks have revived international calls for a demilitarized safety zone around the facility and for the urgent restoration of offsite power links to reduce dependence on emergency systems.

The IAEA has cautioned that the situation remains highly unstable, with each new strike increasing the likelihood of a radiological incident that could spread far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Further escalation could turn the Zaporizhzhia plant into the scene of Europe’s most severe nuclear emergency since Chernobyl.

Trump hedges on sending Tomahawks to Ukraine

Asked in the Oval Office whether he would send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, President Donald Trump said he had “sort of” and “pretty much” made a decision but wanted first to confirm how Kyiv intended to use them.

The ambiguity appeared intentional, suggesting openness to the idea without any actual commitment.

The U.S. currently possesses only a small number of ground-launched Tomahawk systems, known as the Typhon or Mid-Range Capability launchers, which entered service in 2023.

With just two operational batteries, amounting to roughly eight launchers, and a third still being prepared, America’s capacity is too limited to allow an easy diversion abroad.

Even if a launcher could be spared, the Navy and Army would resist relinquishing missiles that are central to their deterrence posture.

Tomahawks are long-range precision weapons capable of striking deep into Russian territory, raising legal and escalation concerns about who controls their use and what targets they might strike.

Trump’s remarks keeps the option alive, but are unlikely to lead to immediate deliveries.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Germany’s populist tide grows

Germany’s political mood is shifting as the opposition party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) extends its steady climb in the polls, while public frustration with the governing coalition reaches new heights. The latest RTL/ntv Trendbarometer found AfD at 27%, three points ahead of the traditionally dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with public trust in its ability to handle Germany’s problems also rising.

The surge builds on a string of regional triumphs, including becoming the largest party in Thuringia and posting double-digit gains across western municipalities once thought immune to its appeal.

The discontent is rooted in both structural pressures and emotional fatigue. Years of weak growth, persistent inflation, high energy prices, and mounting anxiety over migration and identity have eroded confidence in mainstream politics.

Many voters view the government as indecisive or detached from everyday struggles, while others object to what they see as political overreach in the state’s decision to label AfD a “confirmed right-wing extremist” force. Intended as a warning, the move has instead energized parts of the electorate who feel silenced or stigmatized.

The result is a fundamental shift in Germany’s political landscape. AfD has evolved from a regional protest party in the east into a nationwide force capable of reshaping the political agenda.

Its ascent has unsettled the establishment, pushing rival parties to adopt tougher rhetoric on migration, energy, and national identity in a bid to win back voters. Yet this strategy risks strengthening AfD’s own narrative of an isolated elite under siege.

The deepening polarization exposes not only a crisis of governance but also a more profound crisis of trust, as one of Europe’s most stable democracies faces a populist surge of its own making.

Move fast and break things

Illinois challenges Trump’s troop deployment to Chicago

Illinois has filed a federal lawsuit to block President Donald Trump’s plan to deploy the military and National Guard to Chicago, arguing that the move is unconstitutional and exceeds presidential authority.

The suit, brought by Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul and joined by the City of Chicago, seeks to prevent the federalization of roughly 300 Illinois National Guard troops and the deployment of another 400 from Texas.

Illinois argues that the deployment breaches the Posse Comitatus Act, which forbids the use of federal troops for domestic law enforcement without congressional approval, and that none of the statutory conditions required under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 (such as rebellion, invasion, or the inability to enforce federal law) exist in the state. The suit also cites the Tenth Amendment, claiming that Trump’s action infringes on state sovereignty and local control of policing.

In court, Judge April Perry has so far declined to issue an immediate restraining order, instead asking the federal government to file a formal response.

The administration insists that the deployment is necessary to safeguard federal property. Illinois officials, however, call it a politically-driven overreach that risks inflaming tensions.

The dispute, which is unfolding rapidly, raises broad questions about the limits of presidential authority, the military’s role within the U.S., and the balance of power between state and federal governments.

Air traffic controllers walk out – Burbank tower deserted

At 4:15 in the afternoon yesterday, every air traffic controller at Hollywood Burbank Airport walked out, leaving the control tower empty. The employees used various forms of leave to justify not being at work, rather than taking formal industrial action.

The sudden walkout came amid mounting strain across the aviation system caused by the federal government shutdown, which has left thousands of FAA employees working without pay. Unions had warned of falling morale and staff shortages as the shutdown entered its third week, raising concerns over safety and fatigue.

With the Burbank tower offline, arriving aircraft were rerouted and departures suspended, leading to cascading delays across southern California’s already crowded airspace. Pilots remained in contact with regional controllers in San Diego, but without local coordination, ground operations slowed sharply.

The FAA said it was maintaining “essential services” despite the shutdown, though contingency staffing was stretched thin. Passenger groups and airline executives have urged Congress to end the budget impasse, warning that the disruption at Burbank could be a preview of wider instability if the shutdown drags on.

Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. House of Representatives has extended its recess and canceled votes through 13 October, with the next scheduled session set for 14 October. Thus 14 October is the earliest possible date for the House to vote on a funding bill, increasing the likelihood that any resolution will slip into mid-October or beyond.

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