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What you need to know

Gaza ceasefire to be signed in Cairo today

Gaza’s long war appears to be entering its final stage, with the remaining living hostages soon to return home. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was signed at about midday today Cairo time (with no public ceremony), following negotiations pushed by President Trump and mediated by Egypt and Qatar. The Israeli Cabinet will ratify the agreement 5:00 pm tonight Tel Aviv time.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has invited President Donald Trump to address the Knesset during his expected visit to Israel on Sunday, highlighting the U.S. President’s role in brokering the accord.

Even as the agreement was being finalized, Gaza City came under heavy Israeli artillery fire and airstrikes within the past few hours. This is a reminder that Israel continues to exercise near-total freedom of action, particularly from the air.

The arrangement, much like Hezbollah’s ceasefire November last year, represents in many respects a capitulation by Hamas. Once the hostages are freed, the group will have lost almost all of its bargaining power. Israel will maintain control over large parts of the territory and preserve its ability to launch operations whenever it judges necessary.

Unless Hamas accepts a broader settlement that would effectively mark its dissolution as an organized force, another cycle of confrontation seems all but certain.

The birth place of civilization

New U.S. ambassador to Lebanon likely to focus on Hezbollah weapons

Michel Issa, a Lebanese-American businessman and financier, has been confirmed as the new U.S. ambassador to Lebanon. A former banker and automotive dealer, Issa built a career spanning finance, entrepreneurship, and international trade before being nominated by President Donald Trump, who described him as “an outstanding businessman, a financial expert, and a leader with a remarkable career in banking, entrepreneurship, and international trade.”

During his Senate confirmation hearings, Issa adopted a forceful stance on Hezbollah, declaring that the group “needs to be disarmed” to give Lebanon “some kind of hope,” and likening it to a “wounded bear” merely buying time. He argued that Hezbollah’s primary loyalty lies not with Lebanon but with Iran, and that its strategic decisions depend largely on Tehran’s calculations.

His remarks suggest that the U.S. will adopt a more confrontational posture toward Hezbollah. At the same time, Issa stressed the importance of cooperation with Lebanese institutions, the presidency, the government, and the Lebanese Armed Forces, hinting at a strategy that combines pressure with engagement.

Issa’s success will depend on his ability to balance firmness with diplomacy, translating sharp rhetoric into practical influence.

It’s now America vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

German lawmakers approve new Eurofighters in $8 billion defense package

Germany’s parliament has approved a defense spending package worth more than €7 billion ($8 billion), marking one of Berlin’s largest procurement rounds since the start of its post-Ukraine rearmament effort.

Unlike several recent programs financed through the €100 billion ($113 billion) special defense fund created after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this procurement will come from the regular defense budget, showing Berlin’s intent to normalize higher military spending despite its constitutional “debt brake.”

The new aircraft are expected to enter service between 2031 and 2034, extending the Eurofighter’s operational life well into the 2060s and gradually replacing the aging Tornado fleet.

Strategically, the investment reflects Germany’s ambition to assume greater responsibility within NATO and the European defense framework, contributing not only airpower but also advanced electronic warfare capabilities that could lessen reliance on U.S. assets.

UK Prosecutor blames Labour for collapse of China spies trial

Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson, head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), has publicly blamed the Labour government for the collapse of a high-profile espionage case against two men accused of spying for China. In an unusually forthright statement, Parkinson said he was speaking out because ministers had “allowed false narratives to circulate” about why the prosecution failed.

The case, brought under the century-old Official Secrets Act, depended on proving that China was an “enemy” of the United Kingdom at the time of the alleged offenses. According to Parkinson, the CPS repeatedly sought official witness statements confirming that China then posed a threat to national security, but such evidence was never provided. Without that proof, the prosecution concluded that the charges could not stand.

Parkinson suggested that Labour ministers had declined to supply the evidence or to characterize China formally as an adversary, effectively weakening the case. He maintained that the decision to drop the trial reflected an “evidential failure,” not political interference, and said he was speaking publicly only to correct misleading claims that prosecutors had mishandled the matter.

His remarks have cause some controversy. Legal experts and opposition figures contend that the CPS should have anticipated the evidential shortfall before bringing charges and question whether the government’s restraint reflected diplomatic caution rather than legal constraint.

The episode has exposed a rift between Britain’s prosecutors and the government, raising questions about political influence, judicial independence, and the country’s readiness to confront Chinese espionage.

Move fast and break things

Federal deployment intensifies tensions between Washington and Illinois

It appears that U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has federalized elements of the Texas Army National Guard to deploy them to the Greater Chicago metropolitan area. Around 200 Texas Guard soldiers, operating under Title 10 federal orders, have been assigned to protect federal property and personnel, including staff of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). They are joined by roughly 300 Illinois Guard members operating under separate state orders.

The deployment has provoked a sharp political and legal backlash in Illinois, where Governor JB Pritzker has denounced moves to deploy troops as an “authoritarian power grab” by the Trump administration. He has pledged to “use every lever” available to resist what he considers unconstitutional overreach and, together with Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, has backed legal action to block the deployment.

Illinois and the City of Chicago have already filed a lawsuit in federal court, arguing that importing another state’s National Guard without the host state’s consent breaches constitutional limits and undermines state sovereignty. Pritzker has also refused federal requests to activate Illinois’s own National Guard pre-emptively and has aligned his administration with local officials to challenge the legality of the operation. A hearing before U.S. District Judge April Perry is expected to determine whether the federal deployment can continue.

Although the troops’ stated role is confined to protecting federal installations and personnel, the move has deepened tensions between state and federal authorities and reignited debate about the limits of presidential power in domestic security.

IRS furloughs nearly half its workforce amid government shutdown

The Internal Revenue Service said it will place about 34,000 employees on unpaid leave as the U.S. government shutdown continues without a funding deal. Under its contingency plan, roughly 53% of the agency’s 73,000-strong workforce, about 39,000 staff, will stay on duty to maintain essential functions tied to tax enforcement and legally mandated programs.

The timing is delicate, coming just ahead of key tax deadlines and likely to deepen existing backlogs and service delays.

The situation highlights the growing threat to the capabilities of federal institutions to provide services during the current political deadlock.

The ultimate complex system

Bank of England warns of sharp correction if AI boom falters

The Bank of England has warned that global financial markets may face a sharp correction if the current surge of optimism surrounding artificial intelligence proves misplaced.

In its latest financial stability review, the Bank said that equity valuations, particularly in the U.S., appear increasingly overstretched, with much of the recent market rally driven by a handful of AI-linked technology firms such as Nvidia and Microsoft.

The Bank drew comparisons with the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, when a similarly narrow and speculative enthusiasm gave way to sharp and painful losses once growth assumptions were revised.

The warning extended beyond equity prices to broader systemic risks. Officials voiced concern that widespread reliance on AI-driven trading and decision-making systems could amplify volatility if sentiment turns, as many firms depend on comparable algorithms and data sets.

Although the Bank judged that the U.K. financial system remains well capitalized, it cautioned that a global market downturn, particularly one centered on technology and AI, would almost certainly spill into British markets. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit, and waning risk appetite would likely follow.

The assessment echoes earlier research warning that extreme market concentration and exuberant expectations have created conditions primed for a sudden adjustment. The Bank’s message was clear: if the AI boom fails to deliver on its grand promises, the resulting loss of confidence could send tremors through the world’s financial system.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Pakistan, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Modi and Starmer seek to deepen trade and strategic ties in Mumbai

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, in Mumbai on Thursday, during Starmer’s first official visit to India since taking office.

The meeting, held at the Raj Bhavan, came just after the two countries signed a landmark Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, the most significant British trade deal since Brexit.

Starmer arrived with one of the largest British business and academic delegations ever to visit India, including representatives from more than one hundred companies, in what Downing Street described as the “biggest trade mission in a generation.”

Talks between the two leaders centered on consolidating the new trade framework and expanding collaboration in digital infrastructure, defense technology, and higher education. Starmer expressed interest in India’s Aadhaar digital identity system, suggesting that elements of it could inform the United Kingdom’s own digital transformation.

Both sides also discussed shared priorities in the Indo-Pacific, global trade governance, and climate cooperation within the framework of India’s Vision 2035 roadmap for strategic partnerships.

In addition to economic matters, the meeting highlighted cultural diplomacy, with Starmer announcing three major Bollywood productions to be filmed in Britain as part of a broader effort to strengthen people-to-people ties.

New Delhi is said to have raised concerns over pro-Khalistan groups and wanted fugitives residing in Britain, while London reiterated that immigration policy would remain outside the trade agreement.

The visit also saw Indian companies commit more than £1.3 billion ($1.75 billion) in new investments in the United Kingdom, signaling growing confidence among Indian investors.

For both governments, the meeting reflected a pragmatic partnership driven by shared economic interests rather than ideology. But there remain political sensitivities over visas, doubts about the pace of implementation, and differences in foreign-policy outlooks toward Russia and China.

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