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What you need to know

China expands export controls on critical minerals and battery materials

China’s Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have announced sweeping new export controls that extend Beijing’s influence over global supply chains for critical minerals and battery components.

Beginning on 8 November 2025, foreign entities will be required to obtain an export license if they re-export or manufacture abroad any items containing more than 0.1 percent of Chinese-origin controlled materials, or if their production depends on Chinese-origin rare-earth or graphite technologies.

The decision brings lithium batteries, artificial graphite anode materials, and related manufacturing technologies under formal export control “to safeguard national security” and protect China’s strategic interests. It follows earlier restrictions on rare-earth processing technologies and represents an effort to tighten state oversight across the entire value chain, from extraction to finished products.

The new framework also introduces an extraterritorial dimension similar to the U.S. “foreign direct product” rules, meaning that Chinese regulations could extend to goods produced overseas that use Chinese materials or technologies. Companies incorporating Chinese graphite or lithium inputs will therefore face added compliance obligations, including supply-chain audits and potential export licensing requirements.

This is part of Beijing’s broader strategy to consolidate technological dominance, prevent the unlicensed transfer of Chinese innovations, and gain leverage amid persistent trade and technology frictions with the U.S. and its allies.

In practical terms, the policy is likely to affect foreign arms manufacturers, semiconductor producers, and electric-vehicle supply chains that depend heavily on Chinese materials, while simultaneously encouraging greater downstream production and value retention within China itself.

America First

U.S. seeks radar deployment in Grenada near Venezuela

The U.S. has reportedly asked Grenada for authorization to deploy military equipment and personnel on the island, a move that would position American assets just a short distance from the Venezuelan coast.

The request, presented as part of counter-narcotics and regional security cooperation, would primarily involve radar systems and a small contingent of technical staff to operate and maintain them. Washington argues that the installation would strengthen surveillance of air and maritime traffic in the southern Caribbean, improving detection of drug-smuggling routes and other illicit activity.

Yet the proposal carries deeper strategic implications. Given Grenada’s location less than 160 kilometers (100 miles) from Venezuela, the deployment would effectively extend the U.S. security perimeter in the region and enhance its intelligence-gathering capacity on Venezuelan movements.

Venezuela is likely to regard the move as provocative, interpreting it as part of a broader strategy to contain or pressure its government.

Even if limited to radar and technical personnel, the presence of American forces on Grenadian soil could make the island a focal point of great-power rivalry in the Caribbean; an arrangement that, while enhancing U.S. situational awareness, risks pulling Grenada into a geopolitical contest it has long sought to avoid.

It’s now America vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Kyiv shrouded in darkness as Russia targets energy grid

Russia’s latest barrage of missile and drone strikes has plunged the Ukrainian capital into near-total darkness, crippling power stations, water systems, and heating infrastructure just as temperatures begin to drop. Emergency crews are struggling to restore essential services, but much of the electricity grid remains offline after precision strikes hit substations and distribution hubs. Hospitals now rely on generators, while residents queue for hours at public wells and charging points.

The assault ranks among the most severe attacks on Ukraine’s energy network since the invasion began, highlighting Moscow’s strategy of striking civilian infrastructure to sap morale and pressure the government in Kyiv. Officials warn that repairs could take weeks, as the destruction is extensive and spare parts are in short supply.

Russia cripples Ukraine’s gas output ahead of winter

Russia has destroyed about 60 % of Ukraine’s gas production capacity in a series of missile and drone strikes just weeks before winter. The attacks, concentrated in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, hit extraction sites, processing plants, and key sections of the pipeline network, much of which holds little military value. Ukrainian officials described the assault as the most severe blow to the country’s energy infrastructure since the invasion began, warning that domestic output has fallen to less than half its usual level.

The timing and scale of the strikes suggest a deliberate effort by Moscow to use the cold season as a weapon, depriving Ukraine of heating, electricity, and industrial fuel at a moment of maximum vulnerability. Kyiv will now be forced to depend heavily on imported gas and emergency reserves to maintain supply, potentially adding billions of dollars to its energy bill.

Repairing the damaged infrastructure will take months, perhaps years, as many facilities lie within active combat zones and require specialized equipment to restore.

Move fast and break things

Letitia James indicted on bank fraud charges

New York Attorney General Letitia James has been indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice on charges of bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution.

The indictment, filed in the Eastern District of Virginia, alleges that James misrepresented the purpose of a 2020 property purchase in Norfolk, Virginia, by claiming it was a second residence to secure more favorable mortgage terms.

Prosecutors assert that the property was instead rented out, allowing her to save about $18,900 over the life of the loan. The case was presented to a federal grand jury by U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, an unusual step given her recent appointment and the political sensitivity of the matter.

James has denounced the charges as politically motivated, calling them an act of retaliation by Trump and his allies. Reports indicate internal divisions within the Justice Department, with some career prosecutors said to have opposed moving forward before being replaced.

James is due to appear in court in Norfolk on 24 October. If convicted, she could face significant fines and a lengthy prison term, though her defense team is expected to argue that any inaccuracies were inadvertent and immaterial.

The ultimate complex system

AI boom keeps the U.S. economy afloat

Deutsche Bank has warned that the artificial-intelligence surge may be the only force preventing the U.S. economy from stalling.

According to George Saravelos, the bank’s head of foreign-exchange research, current growth is being sustained largely by heavy capital expenditure from technology firms rushing to expand AI infrastructure such as data centers, semiconductors, and cloud systems. Without this wave of investment, he argues, the economy might already be on the verge of recession.

Deutsche Bank cautions that this momentum is unlikely to last. To maintain present growth rates, AI investment would have to keep accelerating at an unrealistic pace. Much of the economic benefit so far, the bank notes, stems from capital outlays rather than from genuine productivity gains or new revenue. When this investment cycle inevitably cools, the underlying fragility of consumer demand, manufacturing, and trade could resurface.

Skeptics point out that other sectors continue to support growth and that AI is already producing tangible efficiencies in some industries.

Even so, Deutsche Bank’s analysis highlights how reliant the U.S. economy has become on a concentrated and speculative technology boom that could quickly unravel if investor confidence wanes.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Poland rejects EU migrant quotas ahead of 2026 migration pact

Poland has declared that it will not accept migrants under the European Union’s mandatory quota system once the bloc’s Migration Pact takes effect in 2026.

The announcement came from Poland’s new conservative president, Karol Nawrocki, in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

In his letter, Nawrocki signaled that Poland would refuse to participate in the relocation mechanism, arguing that the country already carries a disproportionate burden by hosting millions of Ukrainian refugees.

The move is likely to be popular with Polish voters but risks setting Warsaw on a collision course with Brussels. Once the pact becomes legally binding, refusal to comply could invite infringement proceedings or financial penalties from the European Commission.

The dispute reflects a deeper East–West divide within the bloc, with Poland and Hungary resisting compulsory migration schemes that Western and Southern states regard as essential to easing pressure on front-line countries such as Italy and Greece.

For Nawrocki, the position serves several purposes: it bolsters his government’s nationalist credentials, strengthens its bargaining power in future EU negotiations, and casts Poland as a defender of national sovereignty against perceived overreach from Brussels.

In practice, however, the defiance may be more rhetorical than absolute. Warsaw could still fulfill its commitments through financial or operational contributions, even while maintaining a firm stance against migrant relocation.

The decisive moment will come in 2026, when Poland must choose between compliance with EU law, open confrontation, or a negotiated exemption under the pact’s flexibility provisions.

The birthplace of civilization

U.S. sanctions Iran facilitators in Iraq

On 9 October 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sweeping sanctions against a network of individuals, companies, and financiers accused of supporting Iran-aligned militia groups operating in Iraq.

The move, taken under Executive Order 13224, underscores Washington’s growing reliance on economic and financial instruments to counter Tehran’s regional influence and to protect U.S. personnel in Iraq.

The designations, unveiled by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), target key figures and entities linked to Kata’ib Hezbollah, a powerful Iraqi militia that has long served as one of Iran’s principal proxies. Among the central targets is the Muhandis General Company, a sprawling conglomerate allegedly controlled by Kata’ib Hezbollah and used to divert money from Iraqi government contracts. Its affiliate, Baladna Agricultural Investments, was also sanctioned for materially supporting the group’s operations.

The Treasury further named three Iraqi banking executives: Ali Mohammed Ghulam Hussein Al Anssari, Ali Meften Khafeef Al Baidani, and Aqeel Meften Khafeef Al Baidani, for laundering militia-linked funds and facilitating access to U.S. dollars for sanctioned groups, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Qods Force. A Baghdad-based militia leader, Hasan Qahtan Al-Sa’idi, and his network were likewise designated for helping coordinate attacks against U.S. forces.

Under the order, all property belonging to the sanctioned actors that falls under U.S. jurisdiction is frozen, and American entities are barred from conducting transactions with them. Foreign financial institutions that knowingly facilitate significant dealings with these individuals risk losing access to the U.S. financial system.

The Treasury justified its action by asserting that Iran-backed militias have been responsible for killing Americans and destabilizing Iraq’s political and economic landscape. The announcement also highlighted how such groups exploit Iraq’s weak state institutions to enrich themselves and entrench Iranian influence. The sanctions aim to sever the financial lifelines that sustain these networks, signaling that Washington will continue to counter Iranian proxies through coercive economic measures rather than direct military engagement.

The timing and scope of the sanctions suggest a broader strategic message: the U.S. is deepening its campaign to disrupt Tehran’s influence in Iraq and the wider region.

Nonetheless, by targeting the commercial and financial infrastructure that underpins Iran’s proxy operations, the U.S. hopes to degrade the militias’ capacity for violence and curb their reach within Iraq’s economy and government.

Pakistan strikes Kabul in hunt for Pakistan Taliban chief

Last night, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, reportedly targeting Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP).

Explosions were heard around Abdul Haq Square in District 8, though neither Pakistan nor the Taliban authorities have confirmed the success of the strike or the fate of Mehsud.

The attack marks a sharp escalation in Pakistan’s counterterrorism campaign, extending beyond previous cross-border operations in frontier provinces such as Khost and Paktika and into the heart of Afghanistan’s capital.

The operation risks worsening already fraught relations between the two neighbors. Bombing another nation’s capital is a blatant violation of sovereignty and could invite diplomatic or even military retaliation from the Taliban government.

Strategically, Pakistan may view the strike as a demonstration of resolve intended to deter further TTP attacks and reassure a domestic audience weary of persistent militancy. The true consequences will depend on how both governments respond in the coming days.

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