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What you need to know

Hamas tightens control in Gaza as hostages released & international powers gather in Egypt

Despite the release of 20 living hostages this morning, Hamas appears determined to maintain control in areas vacated by Israel.

While a spokesperson has said the group will step aside from governance after the war, multiple media outlets report otherwise. Hamas is said to have mobilized thousands fighters and appointed five new military governors to reassert its authority in districts vacated by Israeli forces. It has also executed scores of inians from groups opposed to its rule.

The mobilization order, reportedly sent via phone and text message, instructed members to “report within 24 hours” to designated locations and invoked a religious and national duty to “cleanse Gaza of lawbreakers and collaborators with Israel.” Armed units have since redeployed across several neighborhoods, some in civilian clothing and others in blue police uniforms, in what appears to be a deliberate blending of paramilitary, policing, and militia functions.

By appointing military governors and redeploying forces, Hamas is signaling its intention to reassert full coercive control over Gaza. The zones vacated by Israeli troops are both politically and symbolically important: whoever controls them effectively governs Gaza.

The focus on “collaborators” and “outlaws” points to an internal purge designed to deter rival militias and insurgent cells from emerging in the power vacuum. Hamas appears intent on preventing the rise of alternative power centers, whether local or foreign-backed.

Even as it claims to be preparing to hand over civilian administration, Hamas’s actions suggest deep mistrust of other actors, such as the Palestinian Authority, local militias, or prospective international security missions, without the guarantee of retaining a latent ability to project force.

The public assertion that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war may be a tactical gesture aimed at placating regional and international partners. Its choice to mix civilian and police attire provides deniability and flexibility in contested zones.

Hamas’ redeployments coincide with preparations for a U.S.-backed leaders’ summit on Gaza to be held in Sharm el-Sheikh. Apart from the regional powers, the U.S. has also invited Spain, Japan, Canada, India, Greece, Bahrain, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Hungary, El Salvador, and Cyprus. The UN Secretary General António Guterres will also attend, as will President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas has also refused to take part in the summit’s formal proceedings, choosing instead to communicate through intermediaries.

Meanwhile, the U.S. President’s visit to Israel, meeting with hostage families and addressing the Knesset, suggests an effort to synchronize political gestures with the hostage release and the international talks. 

The rising Middle Powers: India, Pakistan, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Heavy clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan

Following Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul on Friday against members of the Pakistani Taliban, fierce clashes erupted along the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier over the weekend. Taliban fighters have attacked at least seven Pakistani border posts, prompting a forceful response from Islamabad.

Within hours, Pakistani troops stormed several Taliban-held positions, regaining key ground and retaking nineteen outposts previously used to launch assaults into Pakistan.

The Afghan Taliban has sought a ceasefire, but Pakistan has rejected the request, insisting that any halt to fighting would be on its own terms. The Pakistani military declared that operations would continue “until all terror launchpads in Afghanistan have been eliminated,” describing the campaign as a defensive but necessary effort to dismantle cross-border militant networks.

The escalation reflects worsening relations between the two governments, rooted in Pakistan’s long-standing claim that the Afghan Taliban permits the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate from Afghan territory. It’s ironic, because for decades Pakistan’s intelligence services supported the Taliban.

Reports suggest that Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defense minister and son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, played a central role in directing the recent cross-border attacks, suggesting they were approved by senior leadership rather than being local skirmishes.

For Pakistan, rejecting the ceasefire was a calculated statement that it would not accept provocations or unilateral pauses dictated by Kabul. For Afghanistan, the attacks may have been designed to test Pakistan’s resolve or to extract concessions over border management and political recognition.

The fighting marks the most serious confrontation between the two neighbors since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

It’s now America vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

China softens stance on rare-earth controls as Washington signals restraint

China has softened its tone on rare-earth export controls, signaling a desire to calm markets and reduce diplomatic tension. In a statement on Sunday, Beijing said the new rules do not amount to a full export ban, that applications “meeting regulations” will continue to be approved, and that it remains open to “deeper dialogue” aimed at maintaining global industrial and supply-chain stability. Officials described the impact of the restrictions as “very limited,” calling them a “necessary defensive action” rather than an economic weapon. The shift appears intended to reassure trading partners and to avoid accelerating efforts by the U.S. and its allies to diversify supply chains away from China. Yet the statement carried a warning: if Washington continues to raise tariffs, Beijing will respond in kind.

Vice President JD Vance swiftly echoed the more conciliatory tone, continuing the administration’s broader effort to ease tensions. “We appreciate the friendship between President Donald Trump and President Xi,” he said, adding that the White House “hopes the U.S. will not need to use leverage on China” and that President Trump remains “a reasonable negotiator willing to find common ground.” His comments suggest an attempt to preserve space for diplomacy amid growing trade frictions. Some observers now speculate that an announcement of a Trump-Xi meeting may be imminent, potentially opening the door to a new round of talks to stabilize relations.

At the same time, the Pentagon has launched a $1 billion drive to stockpile critical minerals, including rare earths, to strengthen U.S. defense and industrial supply chains. The move reflects Washington’s determination to reduce strategic vulnerability, even as both sides publicly call for moderation and cooperation.

China and the Philippines clash again in the South China Sea

The Philippines and China have exchanged accusations after a Chinese coast guard vessel rammed and fired water cannons at a Philippine government boat near Thitu Island (Pag-asa) in the disputed South China Sea. Manila said the Chinese vessel deliberately struck the stern of its ship, while Beijing claimed the Philippine craft had illegally entered Chinese waters. The confrontation, confirmed by multiple outlets including France 24, Reuters, and AP News, represents another flare-up in the long-running maritime dispute between the two nations.

The U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines condemned what he described as “dangerous ramming,” reaffirming Washington’s commitment to supporting Philippine maritime operations.

In response, Chinese state media, notably the Global Times, accused the U.S. and its allies of interfering in regional affairs and turning the South China Sea into an arena for great-power competition.

The birthplace of civilization

Iran’s rare admission

In a remarkable admission, Islamic Republic, a newspaper affiliated with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, acknowledged that Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023 was a “mistake.” The paper argued that the assault weakened Iran’s regional influence by pushing Syria toward alignment with the U.S. and Israel, calling it “one of the most damaging developments in the past two years.” Such candor is unusual in Tehran’s media ecosystem and may signal internal debate or pressure.

America First

A new U.S. ambassador to India

The Senate’s confirmation of Sergio Gor as the new U.S. ambassador to India marks a shift in Washington’s approach to South Asia.

Born Sergey Gorokhovsky in Tashkent in 1986, Gor emigrated via Malta before settling in the United States, where he became known as a politically astute operative.

Gor’s experience lies more in domestic political management than foreign policy, leading many observers to interpret his appointment as an attempt by the administration to bring U.S.–India policy into closer alignment with domestic priorities and political messaging.

Given Gor’s background and his close ties to President Donald Trump, his tenure is expected to favor a transactional style of diplomacy.

He is also expected to urge New Delhi to move nearer to U.S. positions on Russia and energy, particularly given the friction over India’s purchases of Russian oil; a source of tension that predated his nomination.

Because Gor lacks a deep record in diplomacy or regional affairs, he may depend heavily on career experts within the State Department’s India and South Asia divisions for guidance on complex issues such as defense coordination, climate policy, and regional institutions. His approach is likely to be more politically assertive than bureaucratically measured, a posture that could create friction if India perceives interference. For now, however, the appointment signals Washington’s intent to pursue a more forceful and politically managed relationship with New Delhi.

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