Gold surged to a record $4,225 per ounce as investors sought safety amid geopolitical instability and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central-bank buying, a weaker dollar, and inflows into gold funds reinforced the rally. In Washington, the Pentagon sharply restricted media access under President Donald Trump, forcing major outlets to return credentials after refusing to sign pledges limiting reporting. Britain sanctioned India’s Nayara Energy days after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Mumbai visit, straining relations. The firm, part-owned by Russia’s Rosneft, was accused of refining Russian crude. Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire after intense border clashes, with Qatari mediation helping avert wider escalation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission moved to revoke Hong Kong Telecom’s operating rights over security concerns, deepening Sino-American tech decoupling. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Gold price reaches new record high of $4,225
Gold rose to a record $4,225 per ounce, extending a months-long rally driven by safe-haven demand, expectations of U.S. interest-rate cuts, and sustained central-bank accumulation.
The metal’s ascent reflects investors’ growing unease over global geopolitical instability, from renewed U.S.–China trade tensions to concerns about a government shutdown in Washington. Markets are now pricing in near-certain rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making non-interest-bearing assets such as gold more appealing as real yields decline.
A weaker dollar has added to the metal’s allure, while central banks, particularly in Asia, continue to diversify away from U.S. Treasuries. The rally has also been strengthened by inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and momentum buying after prices breached key technical resistance levels, forcing short sellers to unwind positions.
Crossing the $4,200 mark carries psychological importance, reinforcing bullish sentiment and attracting both retail and institutional investors. Analysts caution, however, that the metal appears overbought, with indicators such as the relative-strength index pointing to the potential for a correction if U.S. economic data exceed expectations or the Federal Reserve delays its easing cycle. A rebound in the dollar, profit-taking, or easing geopolitical risks could all erode recent gains. In the absence of a sharp policy reversal, though, persistent demand from central banks and risk-averse investors is likely to keep gold elevated and may even propel it toward $4,400 in the weeks ahead.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
Pentagon restricts press access amid mass badge revocations
The Pentagon has sharply curtailed press access, triggering protests from nearly all major media organizations.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth introduced new regulations requiring reporters to sign pledges not to seek or publish “unauthorized” information, even when unclassified, and to comply with strict movement controls inside the building.
Journalists who refused were instructed to vacate their offices and surrender their Pentagon badges, effectively ending in-person access to the Department of Defense.
Dozens of correspondents from outlets including Reuters, The Washington Post, and The Associated Press have returned their credentials in protest, calling the policy an unprecedented infringement on press freedom. The Pentagon maintains that access is a “privilege, not a right,” while critics argue that the rules amount to government overreach and violate First Amendment protections by imposing prior restraint on journalists.
The result has been an almost complete withdrawal of established media from the Pentagon, concentrating control of information within official channels. Although not every outlet’s credentials were physically seized, the combination of coerced compliance, badge revocations, and voluntary withdrawals has had the same practical outcome: virtually every major newsroom has lost direct access to the building.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
UK sanctions Indian refiner after Starmer’s Mumbai visit
The United Kingdom has sanctioned India’s Nayara Energy, along with several other firms, as part of its latest expansion of measures targeting Russia’s energy sector.
The move, announced only days after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Mumbai, adds a layer of diplomatic complexity to the UK–India relationship. Nayara, which operates the vast Vadinar refinery and is nearly half-owned by Russia’s state oil giant Rosneft, has become central to Western efforts to cut off Moscow’s oil revenues.
London’s decision mirrors similar actions taken by the European Union earlier this year, which accused Nayara of refining and exporting petroleum products derived from Russian crude.
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said the new sanctions target Indian and Chinese firms that facilitate Russia’s oil trade, part of a broader campaign against the “shadow fleet” of intermediaries used to circumvent existing restrictions. The inclusion of Nayara indicates that Britain is now willing to penalize not only Russian entities but also third-country firms seen as complicit in sustaining Moscow’s wartime economy.
The timing of the announcement is diplomatically sensitive. Starmer’s early-October trip to India, during which he met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was intended to advance trade and strategic cooperation.
For Nayara, the consequences may be swift. Shipping and insurance firms have already begun distancing themselves from the company, forcing it to scale back refinery operations and redirect output toward domestic markets. Some Indian banks, cautious of compliance risks, have restricted foreign-exchange transactions, while Western technology providers have suspended some services.
The decision reflects London’s resolve to tighten enforcement around Russia’s global energy network, even at the cost of friction with major partners such as India. It sends a signal to other non-Russian actors engaged in Russian-linked oil trade that Western tolerance is eroding. The move also challenges Britain’s ability to balance a hardening sanctions regime with its ambition to deepen ties with one of Asia’s largest economies.
India balances energy ties between Russia and the U.S.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs responded cautiously to claims by President Donald Trump that New Delhi had agreed to reduce energy imports from Russia, stressing instead the country’s long-standing policy of protecting domestic consumers in a volatile global energy market. “It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer,” the ministry said, adding that India has steadily broadened its energy procurement from multiple suppliers, including the United States.
The statement stopped short of confirming or denying any decision to curtail Russian energy purchases, framing India’s approach as one shaped by affordability, stability, and diversification rather than external pressure.
Beneath the careful wording lies a delicate balancing act. Since 2022 India has relied on discounted Russian crude, which has helped contain inflation and limit its trade deficit.
At the same time, it has expanded energy cooperation with the U.S. to improve resilience and demonstrate compatibility with Western partners amid shifting geopolitical alignments.
By emphasizing diversification and partnership rather than compliance, New Delhi seeks to preserve strategic autonomy, maintaining goodwill with Washington while avoiding a rift with Moscow. The government’s focus on domestic priorities and gradual diversification is supposed to signal that any reduction in Russian imports, if it happens, will be slow and guided by market forces rather than political pressure.
Fcc moves to revoke Hong Kong Telecom’s U.S. network access
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has initiated proceedings to revoke the operating authority of Hong Kong Telecom (HKT) to connect with U.S. telecommunications networks, citing national security concerns.
The move represents the latest step in Washington’s tightening scrutiny of Chinese-linked telecom firms, following similar actions against China Telecom Americas, Pacific Networks, and China Unicom.
HKT, an affiliate of China Unicom (which already appears on the FCC’s “Covered List” of high-risk entities because of its ties to the Chinese Communist Party) has been ordered to explain why its Section 214 authorization should not be withdrawn.
Under U.S. law, foreign carriers must hold this certification to provide international services, and the FCC has the authority to rescind it when such operations are deemed contrary to the public interest or national security.
The FCC’s move follows an interagency review by “Team Telecom,” a multi-agency group that evaluates foreign participation in U.S. communications networks. Officials argue that Chinese state-affiliated carriers present espionage and data-routing risks, as they may be subject to coercion under Beijing’s national security laws. The commission maintains that companies such as HKT could be compelled to enable surveillance or data interception, exposing vulnerabilities in U.S. communications infrastructure. HKT is expected to challenge the action, likely contending that the process lacks adequate due process and evidentiary support.
If the FCC proceeds with revocation, HKT would lose its authority to operate or maintain links within U.S. networks, forcing the rerouting of existing circuits and the termination of commercial arrangements.
The decision would signal a further deepening of technological decoupling between the U.S. and China, reflecting Washington’s broader strategy of excluding Chinese telecommunications firms from critical infrastructure.
Beijing will object to the move and could retaliate against American companies in China, though such measures would risk widening the diplomatic rift.
The FCC, meanwhile, appears determined to set a clear regulatory precedent that no entity connected to China’s state-controlled telecom sector can be trusted to operate within U.S. networks.
Watchlist:
Afghanistan and Pakistan agree to temporary truce
Afghanistan announced that a ceasefire between the two countries took effect from 5:30 p.m. local time last night, marking a pause in some of the fiercest border clashes in many years.
The truce, confirmed by both sides as a temporary 48-hour halt to hostilities, follows days of heavy exchanges along the frontier, including reported Pakistani airstrikes in Kandahar and Kabul and Taliban assaults on Pakistani border posts in Chaman and Kurram. Each government accuses the other of provoking the escalation. Kabul claims its forces killed dozens of Pakistani soldiers in retaliation, while Islamabad insists it has eliminated hundreds of Taliban fighters.
The closure of border crossings has disrupted trade and displaced civilians, heightening humanitarian concerns.
Qatar is believed to have helped broker the agreement, amid fears that continued fighting could destabilize the region and embolden militant groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and ISIS-K.
Although the ceasefire provides a brief diplomatic respite, both sides portray it as a concession extracted from the other, revealing how fragile the truce remains. Whether this pause evolves into meaningful dialogue or merely precedes renewed hostilities will depend on the political will in Islamabad and Kabul to confront their deeper security grievances.
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What happened today:
1793 - Marie Antoinette executed in Paris. 1859 - John Brown raids Harpers Ferry. 1946 - Nuremberg war criminals executed. 1951 - Pakistan’s prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan assassinated. 1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis begins as President Kennedy is informed. 1964 - China conducts its first nuclear test. 1973 - OPEC raises oil prices, triggering the oil crisis. 1978 - Karol Wojtyła elected as Pope John Paul II. 2002 - U.S. authorizes use of military force against Iraq (law signed). 2017 - Iraqi forces seize Kirkuk from Kurdish control.



