Following a call yesterday, President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire. China, the Middle East, and Western capitals all saw major geopolitical issues this week. In London, MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum warned that Chinese espionage has reached Cold War levels, after prosecutors declined to try several Britons accused of spying for Beijing. He said the U.K. faces “aggressive, persistent” attempts to steal technology and influence politics, with state-directed threats up 35 percent since January. In the Levant, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun signaled readiness to disarm Hezbollah, backing an army plan to restore state control; U.S. officials reported that 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles were already dismantled, though analysts doubt how many were operational. Next door, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces struck a landmark deal to fold thousands of fighters into the national army: an uneasy but pivotal step toward reunifying the country under Damascus while curbing Turkish pressure. In London, the U.K. launched a new Office for Digital Identities to build a national “One Login” system by 2027, stirring privacy concerns. Meanwhile in Beijing, Xi Jinping’s Fourth Plenum purge underscored his tightening grip as scores of senior officials and generals vanished, signaling control rather than dissent. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Trump and Putin plan Budapest meeting to discuss Ukraine peace deal
President Donald Trump said he had a “lengthy and productive” phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that the two leaders plan to meet in Budapest to explore a possible framework for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. The announcement followed reports that Trump also intends to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, presenting himself as a mediator between the opposing sides.
Choosing Budapest, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, one of Europe’s few leaders to maintain cordial relations with Moscow, appears calculated to offer a politically neutral venue while remaining acceptable to the Kremlin. Trump described the forthcoming summit as a test of whether “real peace” is achievable, though neither Washington nor Moscow has confirmed a detailed agenda.
Diplomats expect discussions to center on a ceasefire and steps toward de-escalation, though few anticipate a major breakthrough. Critics in both Kyiv and Washington warn that any hasty compromise with Russia could solidify territorial losses or weaken Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Even so, the planned meeting reflects Trump’s determination to restore the U.S. role as a global negotiator and to cast himself as the only Western leader capable of dealing directly with Putin.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
British security chief warns of escalating Chinese espionage threat
Sir Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, voiced rare public frustration today over the decision by Crown prosecutors last month not to proceed with trials against several British nationals accused of spying for China. Speaking at a security briefing in London, McCallum described the outcome as “deeply disappointing,” warning that the threat from Beijing “is not a once-in-a-decade problem but a daily reality.”
The MI5 chief emphasized that the United Kingdom remains a priority target for Chinese intelligence operations seeking to steal advanced technology, shape political outcomes, and recruit individuals with access to sensitive data. “We face aggressive, persistent, and sophisticated attempts to interfere in our democracy, our economy, and our institutions,” McCallum said, adding that MI5’s counter-intelligence work now occupies a scale “not seen since the Cold War.”
McCallum disclosed that MI5 had disrupted a Chinese-backed espionage plot as recently as last week. The operation, he clarified, did not involve Parliament, but was “a clear example of Beijing’s audacity.” He also revealed that the number of individuals under investigation for state-directed threats, including from China, Russia, and Iran, has risen by 35% since the start of 2025, underscoring the growing tempo of hostile activity.
The comments come amid rising concern within Whitehall over Chinese influence operations, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and attempts to compromise academic and corporate research. McCallum vowed MI5 would “never back off” from confronting Beijing’s tactics, describing the contest as “a long game requiring national resilience, sharper vigilance, and enduring partnerships with our allies.”
Xi’s Fourth Plenum purge signals dominance, not dissent
Attendance at next week’s Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party will provide a revealing gauge of Xi Jinping’s latest campaign of political purges. Preliminary figures suggest that as few as 168 of the 205 full Central Committee members and 159 of the 171 alternates may attend, about 82% and 93% respectively, with only 17 of 44 representatives from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) expected to appear. If these numbers hold, it would be the thinnest plenum in recent memory, a sharp decline from the 199 full and 165 alternate members who attended the Third Plenum last July. Some absences can be attributed to illness, travel, or age, but many others reflect the widening disciplinary net that has swept through party and military ranks. At best, attendance might rise to 193 members and 165 alternates, still well below historical norms. The last comparable case was the Seventh Plenum in 2017, which concluded Xi’s first-term anti-corruption drive.
Among those already removed are former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu, while Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong and Political Work Department chief Miao Hua have disappeared from public view.
Dozens of other PLA officers have been detained or dismissed amid investigations into procurement corruption and factional disloyalty. The campaign extends deep into China’s defense-industrial complex and is widely interpreted as Xi’s bid to reassert absolute control over the armed forces.
Although some analysts see the disappearances as signs of elite friction, they more likely reflect Xi’s dominance.
After thirteen years in power, nearly every senior official owes his promotion to Xi, and none of the fallen belong to his true inner circle: figures such as Premier Li Qiang, General Office chief Cai Qi, and Vice Premier He Lifeng, who remain firmly entrenched at the heart of his rule.
Li Qiang, once Xi’s subordinate in Zhejiang, now heads the cabinet but is viewed as a technocratic executor rather than a counterweight.
Cai Qi, Xi’s long-time aide and gatekeeper, manages party logistics and access to the leadership.
He Lifeng, another ally from Fujian, oversees economic and financial policy.
Their continued prominence illustrates that the purges have spared Xi’s closest confidants, instead targeting peripheral power centers, particularly within the PLA.
The contrast with predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin is stark: neither dared to dismiss serving generals. Far from suggesting vulnerability, the current purge reveals Xi’s capacity to impose his will across both the Party and the army. Should the Fourth Plenum open with as many empty seats as expected, it will affirm that Xi’s authority remains unmatched, and that in China’s political hierarchy, loyalty offers no guarantee of security.
The Middle East
The birthplace of civilization
Lebanese Army expands disarmament campaign against Hezbollah
The U.S. Central Command announced that the Lebanese Army has dismantled roughly 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and more than 205,000 unexploded ordnances over the past year, describing the effort as part of a continuing campaign to disarm Hezbollah. Admiral Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, praised Beirut’s progress, saying that “our Lebanese partners continue to lead the way in ensuring the disarmament of Lebanese Hezbollah is successful.”
If accurate, the figures would mark an unprecedented scale of disarmament, reflecting a sustained operation to reassert state authority across southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army’s efforts reportedly fall under the government’s “Homeland Shield” plan, a phased program intended to centralize weapons under state control and enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of all militias.
The campaign has been strengthened by U.S. technical and logistical assistance, including new explosives and ordnance-disposal equipment, amid claims that more than 90 percent of Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River has been dismantled.
Still, the scale of the reported numbers has raised skepticism, with analysts suggesting that many of the dismantled weapons may include outdated or unexploded remnants from earlier conflicts rather than active Hezbollah stockpiles.
The distinction is politically sensitive: a genuine reduction in Hezbollah’s arsenal would mark a dramatic shift in Lebanon’s balance of power, while inflated statistics could be intended to signal progress to Western backers.
Either way, the campaign marks a new phase in Lebanon’s attempt to reassert sovereignty over areas long controlled by non-state actors, a process laden with political peril and the risk of confrontation with Hezbollah and its allies.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led SDF agree on military integration
In a development that could reshape Syria’s postwar landscape, the Syrian government and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have agreed to integrate the Kurdish-led militia into the country’s national army. General Mazloum Abdi, the SDF’s commander, announced that thousands of his fighters will formally join the new military structure in the coming weeks, marking the most significant attempt to unify Syria’s fractured armed forces since the start of the civil war.
Under the deal, SDF fighters will be absorbed not as individuals but as cohesive formations, including three principal military groupings and several independent brigades, one of which will comprise the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ). The agreement also extends to the SDF’s internal security wing, which will be merged into the national police.
The accord follows months of negotiation aimed at consolidating government control over Syria’s northeast, where Kurdish-led administrations have operated autonomously for years. It builds upon a broader agreement signed in March that envisioned not only military integration but also the incorporation of civil institutions, such as border crossings, oil fields, and airports, under central authority.
The arrangement carries substantial political and logistical implications. For Damascus, it signals the restoration of sovereignty over a region long beyond its grasp; for the Kurds, it offers partial recognition within the national framework and a measure of protection from Türkiye’s military pressure.
Challenges remain considerable. Combining forces with divergent command structures, doctrines, and loyalties will test both trust and discipline. The success of the plan will depend on whether each side can balance national unity with local autonomy while avoiding renewed competition between rival factions.
Regional actors are monitoring developments closely. Washington has cautiously welcomed the accord as a step toward lasting stability, while Ankara has endorsed any move that curtails Kurdish self-rule. The risk of renewed violence or delayed implementation, however, remains high. If carried through, the agreement could mark the beginning of Syria’s most consequential military and political consolidation in more than a decade.
Free Speech and Digital Privacy
Under threat worldwide
Britain creates new office to oversee digital identity system
The United Kingdom has established a new Office for Digital Identities and Attributes (OfDIA), a government body under the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), to manage the rollout of the country’s digital identity framework. The OfDIA is charged with implementing and regulating the UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework (DIATF), which sets standards for how digital identity providers operate, verifies their compliance, and maintains a public register of certified services. Backed by legislation under the Data (Use and Access) Act, the office has a statutory mandate to ensure that digital ID systems are secure, interoperable, and trusted by citizens and businesses alike.
The initiative forms part of a wider government effort to simplify access to online services through a single secure identity system, replacing fragmented programs such as GOV . UK Verify. The “One Login” platform, expected to be fully operational by 2027, will allow individuals to use a single digital credential to access government and, eventually, private-sector services. Early trials, including a veteran’s digital proof-of-service card, are already under way.
Officials contend that digital IDs will curb fraud, reduce administrative costs, and enhance privacy through encrypted verification. Critics, however, warn that the system could enable intrusive surveillance, expose sensitive data to breaches, and marginalize those without access to digital tools. Despite such concerns, the creation of the OfDIA represents a decisive step toward a national digital identity infrastructure, with significant consequences for governance, commerce, and civil liberties in the years ahead.
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What happened today:
1905 - October Manifesto issued in Russia, promising civil liberties and a Duma. 1933 - Albert Einstein arrives in the U.S., settling after fleeing Nazi Germany. 1945 - Mass demonstrations in Buenos Aires free Juan Perón (“Día de la Lealtad”). 1961 - Paris police massacre Algerian protesters during the Algerian War. 1973 - OPEC announces an oil embargo against the U.S. and allies. 2001 - Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Ze’evi assassinated in Jerusalem. 2013 - U.S. ends federal government shutdown and raises the debt ceiling. 2017 - Syrian Democratic Forces capture Raqqa from ISIS. 2018 - Canada legalizes recreational cannabis nationwide. 2020 - New Zealand general election delivers landslide victory for Labour.



