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President Trump’s 17 October meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sparked controversy amid reports that Trump urged Kyiv to concede the Donbas to Russia. Trump has since denied this, saying the sides should “stop at the lines where they are,” while Zelenskyy insisted that Ukraine would make no concessions. The Ukrainian leader announced plans to convene a “coalition of the willing” and stressed continued resistance, winning support from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck Russian energy facilities in Orenburg and Samara, part of its ongoing cross-border campaign. On the same day, Trump blamed “rogue elements” in Hamas for a Gaza truce breach, as Israel launched retaliatory air strikes. Qatar and Egypt remained notably silent, hinting that they viewed Hamas as responsible. Trump also appointed Michigan businessman Mark Savaya as Special Envoy to Iraq, signaling his personal interest in Baghdad relations. Separately, the U.S. military struck a Colombian vessel linked to drug cartels, killing several people and further straining ties after Trump labeled Colombian President Gustavo Petro an “illegal drug leader.” In Asia, tensions rose when a Chinese Su-35 released flares near an Australian P-8A Poseidon over the South China Sea, prompting formal protests from Canberra.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Trump–Zelenskyy meeting stirs controversy

Rumors have circulated that the meeting on 17 October between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was tense, with Trump reportedly expressing frustration.

Several media outlets published alleged leaks claiming that Trump had urged Zelenskyy to relinquish the Donbas region in exchange for other areas now held by Russia. No official readout of the talks has been released.

Speaking on Air Force One on Sunday night, Trump was asked whether he had told Zelenskyy to cede all of Donbas to Russia. Trump claimed: “No, we never discussed it. We think that what they should do is just stop at the lines where they are.”

Zelenskyy, for his part, emphasized that Russia’s military position remains weak: “They occupied 1% of our land, but they’ve lost 1.3 million people,” he said in an interview with NBC News.

The Ukrainian government appears dissatisfied with the tone of the discussions. “I instructed our diplomats, and have already spoken with many leaders, to prepare a meeting of the coalition of the willing in the near future,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “We need a firm, united position in Europe, and this will happen. Thank you to everyone who stands with us.” He reiterated that Ukraine will not offer any concessions to Russia, insisting that “nothing will be given as a gift” and that Kyiv will continue defending its territory and sovereignty.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk backed that stance, saying, “We should all put pressure on Russia to stop its aggression. Appeasement was never a path to a just and lasting peace.”

Zelenskyy also noted that Ukraine is willing to meet in Budapest if invited (given that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet there to discuss Ukraine), though he admitted it would not be an ideal location for “historical and political reasons”.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones struck a major Gazprom gas-processing plant in Russia’s Orenburg Oblast, near the Kazakh border, sparking a fire that halted the intake of Kazakh gas. In a separate attack, Ukraine targeted an oil-refinery facility in Russia’s Samara region.

  • Overall, Russian officials reported that air-defense systems intercepted 45 drones overnight across the Orenburg, Samara, and Saratov regions.

The incidents form part of Kyiv’s continuing campaign of increasingly successful cross-border strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

Cold War 2.0

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Australian surveillance plane targeted by Chinese fighter in South China Sea

An Australian P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft narrowly avoided danger over the South China Sea when a Chinese fighter jet released multiple flares nearby during a routine patrol on 20 October 2025. According to Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, the Royal Australian Air Force aircraft was operating in international airspace at the time, as part of a regular maritime surveillance mission intended to protect freedom of navigation. The Chinese jet, reportedly a Shenyang Su-35, flew close to the Poseidon and released at least two flares that passed within a few meters (10 feet) of it. Australia described the incident as “unsafe and unprofessional,” lodging formal protests both in Beijing and in Canberra, though no damage or injuries were reported. China’s Defence Ministry claimed the Australian aircraft had “deliberately intruded” into what it considers its airspace above the Paracel Islands, insisting that its actions were lawful, professional, and restrained.

The episode reflects the growing danger of miscalculation in the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial claims and increasingly assertive Chinese patrols have made such encounters more frequent.

  • It follows similar incidents earlier this year, when Chinese jets released flares near Australian aircraft, suggesting a pattern of coercive signaling intended to deter allied surveillance operations.

The confrontation illustrates how China employs calibrated military brinksmanship to reinforce its maritime claims while stopping short of open confrontation.

The Middle East

The birthplace of civilization

Trump cites rogue elements in Gaza truce breach

Speaking aboard Air Force One, President Donald J. Trump told reporters that he believed “rogue elements” within Hamas were responsible for Sunday morning’s ceasefire violation and attack on Israeli forces in southern Gaza.

He suggested the group’s leadership may not have sanctioned the assault, saying, “We think maybe the leadership isn’t involved in that, that it’s some rebels within. It’s going to be handled toughly, but properly.” 

His comments came as Israel carried out more than a hundred retaliatory strikes across Gaza, revealing the fragility of the truce brokered last week.

Notably, neither Qatar nor Egypt, both key mediators of the ceasefire, issued public statements or condemnations in response to the Israel strike. Their silence, striking against the scale of Israel’s bombardment, suggest that they are doing all they can behind the scenes to help the ceasefire to remain in effect.

In earlier rounds of conflict, both Doha and Cairo were quick to criticize Israeli actions, but their restraint this time may reflect a belief that the recent attacks originated from undisciplined factions within Hamas rather than an official decision by its leadership.

The absence of public rebuke also reflects a calculated choice: by avoiding open criticism of Israel, the mediators preserve their leverage over Hamas and maintain the delicate diplomatic balance needed to keep the ceasefire from collapsing.

Trump appoints businessman as special envoy to Iraq

President Donald Trump has reportedly appointed businessman Mark Savaya as Special Envoy to Iraq, an announcement that has drawn attention given Savaya’s lack of a traditional diplomatic background. In a statement, Savaya said he was “deeply humbled, honored, and grateful” for the President’s confidence in naming him to the role.

Publicly available information about Savaya is limited but he is known as an American entrepreneur from Michigan with business interests in the cannabis and convenience-store industries. He is thought to have co-founded Future Grow Solutions and Leaf & Bud, a Detroit-based dispensary chain.

Although Savaya has been active in local business and political circles, there is no clear record of prior government service or foreign-policy experience, making the appointment an unusual choice.

The position of Special Envoy to Iraq, a type of position typically held by experienced diplomats or security officials, entails managing U.S. engagement with Baghdad across political, economic, and security fronts.

The role is especially sensitive given Iraq’s fragile equilibrium between the U.S., Iran, and neighboring regional powers.

The appointment of a special envoy signals that the White House intends to make Iraq a foreign policy priority.

U.S. Foreign & Trade Relations

America First

U.S. strike on Colombian vessel further strains Washington–Bogotá ties

The United States Department of War confirmed that its forces had carried out a kinetic strike on a maritime vessel operated by a Colombian drug cartel, marking a new escalation in Washington’s counter-narcotics campaign.

U.S. officials said the target was a ship used to transport large quantities of illicit drugs along a well-known trafficking corridor in the Caribbean.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said narcotics groups would henceforth be treated as terrorist entities. “The United States military will treat these organizations like the terrorists they are; they will be hunted and killed, just like Al Qaeda,” he declared.

The strike reportedly caused several deaths and led to the capture of survivors, who were held aboard a U.S. naval vessel for questioning.

Although the Pentagon has not disclosed the exact location of the attack, regional governments, including Colombia and Venezuela, protested what they described as a violation of sovereignty.

Meanwhile, relations between the United States and Colombia have worsened after President Donald Trump publicly called Colombian President Gustavo Petro an “illegal drug leader,” announcing an end to U.S. aid and new tariffs on Colombian exports.

The decision marks a dramatic turn in Washington’s policy toward Bogotá, long one of its closest partners in Latin America, regardless of who has been in office in either country.

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What happened today:

1097 - Siege of Antioch begins in the First Crusade. 1803 - U.S. Senate ratifies the Louisiana Purchase. 1818 - Convention of 1818 sets most of the U.S.–Canada border at the 49th parallel. 1935 - The Long March ends in Shaanxi. 1944 - General Douglas MacArthur lands at Leyte, returning to the Philippines. 1947 - HUAC opens hearings into alleged Communist influence in Hollywood. 1962 - Sino-Indian War begins with Chinese offensives. 2011 - Muammar Gaddafi is killed near Sirte

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