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NASA has quietly launched an international campaign to track 3I/ATLAS, an interstellar comet behaving unpredictably. The effort, disclosed only in a technical bulletin, runs from 27 November 2025 to 27 January 2026 under the International Asteroid Warning Network. It is the first coordinated planetary-defense operation involving an interstellar object, aimed at improving measurements of its erratic light and motion. Meanwhile, a global coalition led by the Future of Life Institute has called for a moratorium on developing “superintelligent” AI until safety and oversight frameworks are established. The appeal unites technologists, public figures, and religious leaders who fear humanity could lose control of its creations. Japan has elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female prime minister, a conservative pledging stronger defense and economic reform amid stagnation and political fragility. India has upgraded its Afghan mission to a full embassy, signaling renewed engagement with the Taliban and seriously eroding Pakistan’s influence in Kabul. In Beijing, the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum is charting China’s next five-year plan, emphasizing self-reliance, industrial innovation, and Party control. These decisions will shape global markets and geopolitics through the 2030s. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
NASA quietly launches campaign to track erratic interstellar comet
NASA and its international partners have quietly launched a global observation campaign to monitor 3I/ATLAS, an interstellar comet behaving in ways that defy conventional models.
A recent technical bulletin, buried in an official Minor Planet Electronic Circular (MPEC 2025-U142) hosted by Harvard’s Minor Planet Center, announced an “IAWN Comet Astrometry Campaign” to run from 27 November 2025 to 27 January 2026.
The effort falls under the International Asteroid Warning Network, the same planetary-defense system used for potential impact scenarios, although no public statement or press briefing has been issued.
It marks the first time an interstellar object has been formally included in such a coordinated tracking operation.
The stated aim is to “test improved astrometry methods,” a technical way of saying that astronomers are refining how the object’s position is measured because its observed light and orbital path do not align as expected.
The comet’s photometric center appears displaced from where models predict its mass should be, suggesting uneven outgassing or irregular motion.
In simpler terms, its brightness and movement are out of sync, and scientists want to understand why.
The campaign’s observation window coincides with 3I/ATLAS’s closest and most volatile approach to the Sun and Earth, when the comet will be brightest and most unstable.
Despite speculation online about a covert planetary-defense alert, current projections show no threat of impact: the object will pass at a distance of more than 250 million kilometers (155 million miles).
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
China’s Fourth Plenum signals the next phase of policy direction
China’s Communist Party has convened the Fourth Plenary Session of its 20th Central Committee, known as the Fourth Plenum, in Beijing from 20 to 23 October. The gathering is among the Party’s most consequential decision-making events between congresses, bringing together senior officials to review national policy and set the strategic course for the years ahead. Historically, fourth plenums have focused on governance and institutional reform, but this year’s meeting carries particular importance as it coincides with slowing economic growth, demographic strain, and mounting global uncertainty.
The session is expected to review the outgoing 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and begin outlining the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030. Observers anticipate a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance, domestic consumption, and structural adjustment, as Beijing seeks to reduce reliance on exports and property-driven investment. Other likely priorities include industrial innovation, expanded state oversight of strategic sectors, and administrative reforms intended to strengthen Party discipline and central authority.
Although less focused on personnel changes than previous plenums, this session follows a wave of supposed anti-corruption purges and the removal of several senior military and bureaucratic figures.
Some reshuffling within the Central Committee is expected, a move widely interpreted as further consolidating Xi Jinping’s grip on power.
The official communiqué, to be issued after the meeting, will be closely examined for indications of policy direction and ideological tone, particularly phrases such as “high-quality development,” “dual circulation,” and “technological self-reliance.”
For investors and foreign governments, the plenum serves as an important signal of China’s strategic trajectory. It will clarify how Beijing plans to navigate domestic economic headwinds while managing external rivalry, especially amid intensifying competition with the U.S. over trade and technology. The decisions emerging from this meeting are likely to influence the global investment climate, supply-chain patterns, and regional power dynamics well into the next decade.
Japan parliament approves its first female prime minister
Japan’s parliament on 21 October 2025 elected Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first female prime minister, a landmark moment in its postwar political history. Takaichi, a veteran lawmaker from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), won the lower-house vote following the resignation of her predecessor and now heads a fragile coalition government.
A staunch conservative and nationalist, she is known for defending traditional values, stressing national security, and aligning with the party’s right-wing faction.
Takaichi has pledged to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities amid regional tensions and to pursue economic reforms aimed at stabilizing the weakened yen and containing inflation.
Her leadership begins under testing circumstances: economic stagnation, a rapidly aging population, and precarious coalition support all loom as potential obstacles amid an increasingly fragile geopolitical situation in North Asia.
The success of her tenure will hinge on her ability to balance domestic fragility with Japan’s increasingly assertive strategic role in the Indo-Pacific.
The Middle Powers
The rising Middle Powers: India, Pakistan, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations
India expands its diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan
India has upgraded its diplomatic mission in Afghanistan, turning its Kabul “technical mission” into a full embassy. The move reflects New Delhi’s intention to re-engage with the Taliban-led administration and to revive development projects, trade, and humanitarian programs that were suspended after the collapse of the previous Afghan government in 2021.
For India, Afghanistan remains very strategically important, serving both as a link to Central Asia and as a counterweight to Pakistan’s enduring influence.
Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, and its cooperation with U.S. and allied forces during the Afghan war, stemmed largely from its desire to prevent India from gaining a strategic foothold in Afghanistan.
Islamabad viewed Indian involvement as a potential encirclement that could threaten Pakistan’s western flank.
Recent border clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces, during which the Taliban claimed to have inflicted casualties and seized Pakistani positions, have revealed a steep deterioration in bilateral ties, and presents opportunities for India.
Kabul’s readiness to host Indian diplomats and investors suggests that Pakistan’s leverage over the Taliban is waning.
The Taliban leadership appears increasingly inclined to diversify its foreign relations, pursuing legitimacy and economic engagement beyond Islamabad’s orbit.
For Pakistan, this represents an unsettling erosion of its long-standing sphere of influence; for India, it offers a measured but meaningful diplomatic opportunity.
The shift marks a broader regional adjustment, as Afghanistan seeks new patrons and India moves to reassert its presence in a country long seen as central to South Asia’s strategic balance.
Watchlist:
Global coalition calls for ban on superintelligence
On 22 October 2025, the Future of Life Institute released an open letter calling for a global prohibition on the development of so-called “superintelligent” artificial intelligence until there is broad scientific agreement that it can be created safely, under human control, and with genuine public consent.
The appeal was signed by an unusually diverse coalition, ranging from leading AI researchers such as Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio to public figures like Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, as well as political commentators including Steve Bannon and religious leaders. All were united by a shared conviction that humanity must shape the evolution of technology, not become subordinate to it.
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What happened today:
1721 - Peter the Great proclaims the Russian Empire. 1836 - Sam Houston inaugurated as the first elected president of the Republic of Texas. 1884 - International Meridian Conference adopts Greenwich as the prime meridian. 1953 - Franco-Laotian Treaty grants Laos full independence from France. 1962 - President John F. Kennedy announces a naval “quarantine” of Cuba. 1979 - United States admits the Shah of Iran for medical treatment. 2008 - India launches Chandrayaan-1, its first lunar mission. 2010 - WikiLeaks releases the Iraq War Logs. 2019 - UK House of Commons passes the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill’s second reading.
