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U.S. rebukes Israel over West Bank annexation vote

A political storm has erupted between the United States and Israel after the Knesset voted to approve the annexation of the West Bank during the visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Jerusalem. The timing of the vote, widely seen in Washington as a deliberate provocation, drew swift and unusually blunt criticism from senior American officials. Vance described the move as “a stupid political stunt,” saying he was personally offended by it and stressing that President Donald Trump’s policy is that the West Bank will not be annexed by Israel. “We are not gonna allow Israel to annex the West Bank,” he said, adding that such a step would breach U.S. commitments to its Arab partners.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced a similar warning, cautioning that any annexation efforts risk undermining a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza. “I think the president has made clear that’s not something we can be supportive of right now,” Rubio said. President Trump, speaking to Time magazine, was even more direct: “It won’t happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries. Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared unmoved by the rebuke. Asked on television whether American influence shapes Israeli decisions, he replied, “They’ll always say that, it doesn’t matter. We are very grateful for the partnership, but we are an independent country.” Israel’s foreign minister later clarified that the government would not support the Knesset bill on annexation, suggesting the vote was largely symbolic and revealing divisions within the governing coalition, particularly between Netanyahu and far-right ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich, who has long advocated full annexation of the West Bank.

Public opinion, meanwhile, appears to favor a different course. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Israelis would support a Saudi normalization deal tied to the creation of a Palestinian state, while most regard West Bank annexation (a policy associated with Smotrich) as damaging to Israel’s security, economy, and international standing.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

China suspends purchases of Russian oil

China’s state-owned oil companies have halted purchases of seaborne Russian crude after Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow’s two largest oil producers. The decision shows how tightening U.S. sanctions are rippling through global energy markets.

PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil have suspended transactions involving Russian seaborne oil, at least temporarily, amid concern over secondary sanctions. Independent refiners, known as “teapots,” which account for most of China’s 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne imports, are also reassessing their exposure.

India, Russia’s largest customer for such crude, is expected to follow suit, with refiners sharply cutting imports to comply with U.S. restrictions linked to the war in Ukraine. Together, these moves by Asia’s two biggest buyers threaten to erode the Kremlin’s oil revenues, already weakened by the conflict. Analysts estimate that Chinese state firms imported between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels per day during the first nine months of 2025, but trading arms such as Unipec halted purchases after Britain designated Rosneft and Lukoil under its sanctions regime.

Pipeline flows to China, totaling around 900,000 barrels per day through PetroChina, remain unaffected, although the loss of maritime exports will leave Moscow searching for alternative buyers.

With both India and China reducing their purchases, Russia is expected to depend more heavily on intermediaries and shadow fleets to circumvent restrictions.

The suspension is likely to lift prices for non-sanctioned crude, particularly from the Middle East and Africa, as global importers compete for limited supplies.

EU widens Russia sanctions to include Indian and Chinese firms

The European Union has adopted its 19th package of sanctions against Russia, widening the scope of restrictions to include entities in India and China accused of helping Moscow evade earlier measures. Announcing the decision, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the new package targets “Russian banks, crypto exchanges, entities in India and China, among others.”

The measures introduce a phased ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports to Europe by 1 January 2027, extend prohibitions on transactions with key Russian banks, and tighten export controls on high-tech goods and dual-use materials. They also expand the EU’s blacklist of “shadow fleet” vessels to more than 560 ships suspected of transporting sanctioned Russian oil and commodities.

Three Indian companies have been added to the sanctions list, following the earlier designation of Nayara Energy, an Indian refiner partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft. Nayara had criticized the EU’s move and signaled possible legal action. The names of the newly sanctioned Indian firms have not been made public, though they are thought to operate in shipping, refining, or technology supply chains that indirectly support Russia’s war economy.

The inclusion of Indian and Chinese entities marks a shift in Brussels’s approach, moving from targeting Russia alone to penalizing third-country facilitators. The goal is to close loopholes that allow circumvention of existing restrictions, though the move risks complicating relations with major trading partners.

Indian refiners and shippers have become reliant on discounted Russian crude since 2022, and the sanctions bring both financial and reputational risks, as well as potential friction with Brussels.

Trump and Xi to meet before tariffs take effect

The White House has announced that President Donald Trump will meet China’s President Xi Jinping on 30 October 2025, just 48 hours before a 100 percent tariff increase on Chinese imports is due to take effect. The timing lends the encounter both symbolic and strategic weight, turning it into a last-minute attempt to head off a full-scale trade war.

The tariff rise, scheduled for 1 November, marks the most sweeping U.S. trade action against China in years and comes amid growing friction over technology transfers, rare-earth mineral controls, and Beijing’s deepening ties with Moscow. By meeting so close to the deadline, Trump appears to be mixing brinkmanship with performance, giving Xi a final opportunity to negotiate before the measures are implemented.

For both leaders, appearance counts as much as substance: Trump seeks to project strength while maintaining a deal-maker’s image ahead of a likely re-election campaign, whereas Xi must convey firmness without seeming to bow to U.S. pressure. The narrow window for diplomacy leaves little scope for compromise.

Move fast and break things

Trump pauses national guard deployment in San Francisco

President Donald Trump announced on 23 October 2025 that he would pause a planned National Guard “surge” into San Francisco, saying the decision followed what he described as a “nice” phone call with Mayor Daniel Lurie, who “asked, very nicely, that I give him a chance.”

Writing on Truth Social, Trump said that although federal forces “could remove the criminals faster,” he was willing to wait, encouraged by “great people like Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, and others” who believe the city still “has a future.”

The pause does not apply to a separate U.S. Customs and Border Protection operation already based at the Alameda Coast Guard Base, an initiative condemned by Governor Gavin Newsom and local officials as illegal and likely to provoke unrest.

The proposed “surge” had drawn strong opposition from California leaders, who argue that violent crime in San Francisco is at historic lows and that deploying the National Guard would be unconstitutional under the Posse Comitatus Act.

Trump’s decision, which he attributed to the mayor’s appeal and lobbying from prominent technology executives, illustrates the friction between the administration’s tough talk on urban crime and local authorities’ preference for civilian policing. It also shows how influential business figures in Silicon Valley can sway federal policy, even on matters of security, as the White House seeks to balance political theater with investor confidence and legal prudence.

U.S. bomber flights near Venezuela signal intensifying pressure on Maduro

The recent series of U.S. long-range bomber missions near Venezuela, including B-52s accompanied by F-35s and two subsequent B-1 sorties that remained in international airspace, appears designed to increase pressure on President Nicolás Maduro by displaying a layered combination of conventional and stealth power in the Caribbean.

Combined with blunt rhetoric from senior U.S. officials, including the President and Secretary of War, promising harsh measures against drug networks, the posture now blurs the line between deterrence and the threat of armed action.

Although the flights themselves do not breach Venezuelan sovereignty, it certainly pushes tensions with Venezuela to a new level.

Trump halts U.S.-Canada trade talks over Reagan tariff ad

At 10:45 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that he was terminating all trade negotiations with Canada after a television advertisement featured edited footage of President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

The ad, produced by Ontario’s provincial government, drew rebukes from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, which said the material had been misused. Trump denounced the video as fraudulent and claimed it was an attempt to influence ongoing legal cases before the U.S. Supreme Court concerning his tariff powers.

His decision effectively froze all bilateral trade discussions and showed that his administration remains prepared to use economic policy as a political instrument in response to perceived slights.

Despite the diplomatic shock, financial markets appeared untroubled, as they learn to respond appropriately to White House policy shifts. S&P 500 futures extended their rally, coming within 15 points of a record high.

Investors seem to have grown indifferent to tariff risks, concentrating instead on corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy.

Whether this calm endures will depend on Canada’s response and the resilience of cross-border supply chains, particularly in autos, metals, and energy.

Indonesia defends ban on Israeli athletes despite IOC rebuke

Indonesia has defended its decision to bar Israeli athletes from participating in the forthcoming World Artistic Gymnastics Championships, describing it as part of its duty to “maintain international order.” Sports Minister Erick Thohir said the move was intended to protect “security, public interest, and public order,” acknowledging in an Instagram post that it would carry “consequences.” The decision reflects Indonesia’s long-standing foreign-policy stance of not recognizing Israel and its consistent expression of solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

In response, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would suspend all discussions with Indonesia about hosting future Olympic or Youth Olympic events until the country guarantees access for “all participants, regardless of nationality.” The IOC also said it would advise international sports federations to avoid holding competitions or conferences in Indonesia until Israeli athletes are allowed to participate.

The dispute highlights the growing friction between Indonesia’s domestic political sensitivities and international sporting norms. It recalls the 2023 episode in which Jakarta was stripped of its right to host the FIFA Under-20 World Cup after refusing to allow Israeli players to compete.

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