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What you need to know

Trump and Xi strike a temporary truce

After what he called an “amazing” meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, President Donald Trump announced a series of tariff reductions and new trade arrangements marking a brief thaw in U.S.–China relations.

Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said the U.S. would cut tariffs on Chinese goods from an average of 57 percent to 47 percent, while reducing the so-called “fentanyl tariff” to 10 percent, effective immediately. In return, China pledged to intensify efforts to curb exports of precursor chemicals used in the U.S. opioid trade.

The two leaders also reached a one-year agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, with Trump declaring that there would be “no more obstacles” to their export.

The pact will be renegotiated annually, allowing both sides to retain leverage over some of the world’s most strategic supply chains.

Trump added that Washington and Beijing would “discuss” semiconductor restrictions, including potential talks involving Nvidia, although no binding commitments were made.

China also agreed to expand purchases of U.S. agricultural products, while both countries promised to cooperate on efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump told reporters that the issue of Taiwan “never came up.”

Although Trump described the meeting as “a 12 out of 10,” the outcome amounts to a limited de-escalation rather than a reset. The reduced tariff rate remains historically high, and most agreements, particularly the rare-earths deal, are short-term and fragile.

Still, the announcements suggest a pragmatic, transactional shift in policy: trade concessions are now being linked to non-trade objectives such as narcotics control, and annual renegotiation guarantees a steady rhythm of political theater.

The meeting reflects a more fluid diplomacy that merges trade, security, and domestic priorities, offering temporary relief to markets while leaving the structural rivalry between the U.S. and China essentially unchanged.

America First

South Korea and U.S. reach sweeping trade and security accord

During President Donald Trump’s visit to Seoul, South Korea announced a far-reaching trade agreement with the United States that would reduce U.S. tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15%.

In return, Seoul pledged to invest up to $20 billion a year in the U.S. economy, including $150 billion directed toward American shipbuilding, as part of Trump’s effort to revive the industry and bolster domestic manufacturing. The agreement also provides tariff relief for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, aircraft components, and generic drugs.

For both countries, the accord is as much strategic as it is economic: South Korea gains improved market access and reaffirms its alliance with Washington, while the U.S. secures fresh foreign investment that strengthens its industrial base and supply chains.

In a parallel discussion on security cooperation, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung reportedly asked Trump for access to fuel used in nuclear-powered submarines. Lee emphasized that Seoul does not seek nuclear-armed vessels, but rather submarines equipped with conventional weapons that can better track Chinese and North Korean submarines. He argued that such a capability would extend the range and endurance of South Korea’s fleet and ease the operational burden on U.S. forces in the Pacific. Trump was said to have reacted positively, calling the request a reasonable step given North Korea’s growing undersea capabilities.

If realized, the plan would mark a notable shift in the U.S.–Korea alliance.

Nuclear propulsion would give South Korea a stronger undersea deterrent.

The current U.S.–Korea nuclear cooperation pact forbids Seoul from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel for military purposes, meaning any new arrangement would require revising those restrictions.

The combination of expanded trade ties and potential nuclear-submarine collaboration signals a broader strategic bargain: South Korea is offering major investment and renewed alliance commitment in exchange for greater defense autonomy and access to advanced technology.

Together, these developments highlight a changing balance of economic and security responsibilities in the Indo-Pacific, as Washington urges allies to assume a larger role in regional defense while keeping them closely integrated with U.S. industrial and military networks.

Lukoil sells international arm to Gunvor amid tightening U.S. sanctions

Russian oil giant Lukoil, recently placed under U.S. sanctions, has agreed to sell its international business to the Geneva-based commodity trader Gunvor for an undisclosed sum. The deal, announced on 30 October 2025, covers Lukoil International GmbH, the subsidiary that holds the company’s foreign assets and employs about 15,000 people across the U.S., Belgium, the Netherlands and other jurisdictions. Lukoil said the decision was prompted by “restrictive measures of some states” that have made operations abroad increasingly difficult.

The sale, which still requires regulatory approval, including from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), represents one of the largest restructurings of a Russian private energy company since the latest wave of Western sanctions.

Gunvor, which built its early fortunes trading Russian oil, is a contentious buyer. The firm was co-founded by Swedish businessman Torbjörn Törnqvist and Gennady Timchenko, a close associate of Vladimir Putin who sold his stake in 2014 shortly before being sanctioned by Washington.

Although Gunvor insists it no longer has Russian ownership, its historical links to the Kremlin are widely recognized. The acquisition is therefore likely to draw regulatory scrutiny, especially if the assets continue to generate income that indirectly benefits Russian interests.

For Lukoil, the divestment marks a strategic withdrawal intended to protect its core domestic operations from sanctions risk and liquidity pressures. The sale allows the company to dispose of exposed foreign assets while preserving cash flow. For Gunvor, the purchase presents an opportunity to strengthen its refining and logistics network, adding downstream and trading assets that align with its global portfolio. The undisclosed price is likely to reflect a substantial discount, given the legal uncertainties and reputational risks surrounding the deal.

The transaction reflects a broader shift among Russian energy firms, many of which are retreating from international markets in favor of a more insular, sanctions-resistant posture.

It also raises uncomfortable questions for regulators over whether the sale truly ends Lukoil’s control or merely passes ownership to a familiar intermediary. Either way, the deal illustrates the complications of sanctions enforcement on multi-national corporations.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

D66 surges as Dutch voters turn from the far right

Exit polls from the Netherlands point to a sharp reversal in the country’s political fortunes, with the centrist-liberal Democrats 66 (D66) emerging as the largest party in parliament.

According to national broadcaster NOS, D66 is projected to secure around 27 seats in the 150-member lower house, a historic rise from its 2023 result that reflects voter fatigue with the populist right wing Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders. The PVV, which dominated the previous election, is expected to drop to about 25 seats, punished for collapsing the last coalition government over its demand to end mass immigration. The outcome signals a clear turn toward the political center and away from the anti-immigrant populism that has shaped Dutch politics in recent years.

Rob Jetten, leader of D66, now appears the most likely candidate to become the Netherlands’ next prime minister, positioning him to head what could be the country’s most centrist (or even mildly left-leaning) coalition in decades.

Forming that coalition, however, will be complicated.

With no party close to a majority, lengthy negotiations are expected, as many mainstream parties have ruled out working with Wilders’ PVV.

Early signs suggest that D66 may seek an alliance with the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and several smaller progressive and centrist factions, forming a broad but potentially fragile governing bloc.

If the exit polls hold, the result would mark a pivotal moment in Dutch politics, reflecting a waning appetite for populist right wing parties. Whether this will play out elsewhere in Europe, such as in Germany or France, remains unclear.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

U.S. and Australia urge citizens to leave Mali as security collapses

The U.S. Embassy in Bamako has issued an evacuation order, instructing all American citizens in Mali to leave the country immediately using commercial flights. The advisory warned that although Bamako’s international airport remains open, overland routes to neighboring countries have become perilous owing to a surge in terrorist attacks along national highways.

The embassy also cautioned that it cannot ensure assistance to U.S. citizens outside the capital, urging those who remain to prepare contingency plans, including the possibility of long-term shelter-in-place arrangements.

Australia’s embassy released a similar alert, advising all Australian nationals to depart the country “using commercial means” and reiterating its highest-level warning against travel to Mali.

Both advisories reflect a sharply worsening security climate marked by escalating attacks from militant groups affiliated with al-Qaʽida, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The group’s operations have disrupted fuel convoys and public services nationwide.

A continuing fuel blockade and mounting instability have strained infrastructure, triggered shortages, and increased the risk of a wider conflict between government forces and jihadists.

Move fast and break things

Fed makes second rate cut of 2025 as growth cools

The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its second cut of 2025 and bringing the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. The move signals the central bank’s attempt to balance easing inflation with mounting signs of a slowdown in economic activity. In a statement following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell said that the outlook had become “more balanced,” citing cooling price pressures, a softening labor market, and weaker business investment as reasons for a more accommodative stance.

Markets had widely expected the decision, with futures pricing in a strong likelihood of further rate reductions later in the year should inflation continue to edge toward the 2% target. Treasury yields dipped modestly after the announcement, while equity markets advanced on expectations of looser monetary conditions ahead. Analysts view the Fed’s latest move as part of a cautious effort to achieve a soft landing, slowing the economy sufficiently to curb inflation without triggering a recession, though risks tied to global instability and expansive fiscal policy remain.

Trump orders resumption of U.S. nuclear testing

President Donald Trump announced that he had instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear-weapons testing, citing the need to match the programs of China and Russia. The declaration, made on 30 October 2025, represents a sharp break from three decades of U.S. policy, under which full nuclear detonations have been suspended since the last test at the Nevada Test Site on 23 September 1992.

Trump argued that other powers were already conducting tests and that the United States must act “on an equal basis.”

The announcement did not specify whether this referred to sub-critical experiments or full-scale detonations, which would require extensive preparation, environmental approval, and international notification.

Resuming testing would take at least two years and could unravel the global moratorium that has supported the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which the U.S. has signed but not ratified.

Strategically, the decision reflects a return to Cold War-style deterrence thinking, favoring visible demonstrations of power over the simulation-based “stockpile stewardship” program that has managed the U.S. arsenal since the 1990s.

Trump presented the move as a response to intensifying nuclear competition, claiming that China could reach nuclear parity within five years. Whether the order leads to an actual test remains uncertain, though the announcement alone may serve as leverage in future arms-control negotiations.

Pentagon orders National Guard to form quick reaction forces for domestic unrest

The Pentagon has directed the National Guard to create “quick reaction” forces across the U.S. to respond to potential riots and civil unrest, in what amounts to one of the largest domestic security mobilizations in recent decades.

A memorandum issued by the National Guard Bureau on 8 October 2025 instructs every U.S. state, territory, and the District of Columbia to assemble a 500-person unit trained and equipped for crowd control, using batons, shields, Tasers, and riot-formation tactics.

The units are expected to become fully operational by 1 January 2026.

The move follows an executive order issued in August by President Donald Trump requiring the Department of War to ensure that Guard units nationwide are prepared to assist in maintaining public order.

The Pentagon maintains that the initiative is a precautionary measure intended to ensure rapid and uniform responses to civil disturbances.

The decision, of course, raises legal and political concerns about the militarization of domestic policing, the balance of authority between states and the federal government, and the limits imposed by the Posse Comitatus Act, which restricts military involvement in civilian law enforcement.

Facing headwinds

Wikipedia braced for confrontation with UK regulators over online safety law

Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales has said the platform is prepared to defy the United Kingdom’s Online Safety Act if regulators attempt to impose age-gating requirements. The act, passed in 2023, grants Ofcom broad authority to compel major online platforms, known as “Category 1” services, to verify or estimate users’ ages to prevent children from viewing harmful material.

Wales contends that such measures would erode Wikipedia’s open, volunteer-based model, which relies on minimal data collection, user anonymity, and unrestricted public access to knowledge. The Wikimedia Foundation has already stated that it will not perform age checks or identity verification under the act, even at the risk of fines or being blocked in the UK.

Ofcom’s forthcoming “children’s codes” are expected to make age-gating obligatory for certain types of content, setting up a likely confrontation between the government and Wikipedia.

Wales has described the law as poorly conceived and cautioned that compliance would threaten the site’s neutrality and accessibility.

The dispute captures a broader struggle between national safety regulations and global digital platforms committed to open access. It raises questions about whether the internet can remain a shared, borderless domain in an era of increasingly territorial regulation.

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