What you need to know

US military buildup intensifies around Venezuela

The United States is expanding its military presence around Venezuela, deploying an unusually large concentration of forces across the southern Caribbean. Regional reports indicate that more than one-tenth of all active U.S. naval assets are now stationed in or near Venezuelan waters. The deployment includes Aegis-equipped destroyers such as the USS Gravely, Jason Dunham, and Sampson, supported by special operations aviation units from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, known as the “Night Stalkers.”

In a further display of strength, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest warship in the U.S. Navy, is steaming toward the Caribbean and is expected to arrive within days. Washington describes the operation as part of a counter-narcotics mission aimed at disrupting drug routes from Latin America to the U.S., though the scale and composition of the force suggest broader strategic intentions.

President Donald Trump’s administration has designated several Venezuelan-linked groups, including the Cartel de los Soles, as narco-terrorist organizations, allowing the use of expanded military authority under U.S. law. In Caracas, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has responded by moving troops toward coastal regions, mobilizing militias, and denouncing what it calls “imperialist aggression.”

Venezuela’s armed forces, weakened by maintenance shortfalls and aging equipment, would struggle to resist U.S. operations. The growing U.S. posture exerts coercive pressure on the Maduro regime, although it remains unclear what end game the White House has in mind.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russia’s energy network

Ukraine’s air campaign has evolved into a sustained effort to cripple Russia’s vital infrastructure, with a particular focus on the power grid and energy export facilities.

Between 14 October and 2 November, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck at least six high-voltage substations across Russia, some rated between 500 and 750 kilovolts, along with smaller facilities from 110 to 220 kilovolts in regions such as Lipetsk, Alchevsk and Zheleznogorsk.

The most serious incident occurred on 2 November, when Ukrainian drones hit Rosneft’s Tuapse Marine Oil Terminal on the Black Sea. The deep-water facility, capable of handling tankers up to 250 meters (820 feet) long and exporting around seven million tonnes (7.7 million tons) of crude oil annually, suffered damage to its loading systems, and a moored tanker reportedly caught fire.

The attack demonstrated Ukraine’s growing reach deep into Russian territory and its ability to target infrastructure central to Russia’s export economy.

Taken together, these strikes mark a shift in Kyiv’s strategy from battlefield engagements to strategic operations intended to inflict cumulative economic and psychological strain on Russia’s war effort. They also reveal Ukraine’s increasing sophistication in the use of long-range, unmanned systems and its increasing determination to extend the conflict’s costs beyond the front lines.

OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes amid sanctions and slowing demand

OPEC+ has agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day in oil production for December 2025, while announcing a three-month pause in its output expansion from January to March 2026.

The move reflects growing caution about the risk of oversupply early next year as global demand growth weakens and inventories accumulate.

The pause coincides with the seasonal dip in consumption during the northern-hemisphere winter, when refinery maintenance and reduced transport activity typically suppress crude demand.

The decision follows new U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy firms, which have disrupted export flows and cast doubt on how much Russian oil will reach global markets.

Russia has been the most vocal advocate of the pause, arguing that continued production increases could drive down prices while its export options remain limited.

The position reflects Moscow’s preference for price stability rather than volume expansion and also reflects its continuing strong influence within the OPEC+ coalition.

Birthplace of civilization

U.S. warns Iraq against interference as new regional operation looms

Iraqi Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi said he recently received a warning from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about an imminent joint operation by the U.S. and Israel somewhere in the Middle East.

According to al-Abbasi, Hegseth telephoned him over the weekend to alert Baghdad that military action was imminent and to deliver a “final warning” that Iraqi armed factions, including those supported by Iran, must not intervene or retaliate. The call reportedly lasted about 12 minutes and included Iraq’s senior military and intelligence officials.

In addition to the warning, Hegseth discussed bilateral cooperation, including plans for joint drone operations, a draft memorandum on security coordination, and the delivery of Bell-model helicopters to Iraq.

The message leaves Iraq in an increasingly precarious position, balancing U.S. pressure on one side and Iranian on the other. It indicates that Washington is preparing for military action against Iranian or proxy targets and expects Baghdad to remain strictly neutral; or Iraq risks being pulled into a broader regional conflict.

Iran waits to recover buried uranium stockpile

Perhaps responding to rumors of another round of upcoming strikes on his nuclear program, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the controversy surrounding the country’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), saying that Tehran has “no intention of removing [the material] from the rubble until the conditions are right.”

He confirmed that the containers of HEU remain where they were before the April strikes on the enrichment site, adding that Iranian authorities have “no information” on how much of the roughly 400 kilograms (880 pounds) remains intact or was destroyed in the attack.

His remarks suggest that Iran has not carried out a full assessment of the damage, likely because of safety concerns. The reference to waiting “until the conditions are right” implies that Tehran may be linking any recovery effort to broader diplomatic or security considerations, such as the progress of negotiations with Western powers or the risk of further Israeli or U.S. attacks.

By admitting uncertainty about the HEU’s condition, Araghchi’s comments highlight the secrecy surrounding Iran’s nuclear infrastructure after the strike. They also raise concerns about possible contamination or proliferation if HEU material remains buried and unaccounted for.

Sharaa’s planned visit to DC signals new Syrian government’s bid for legitimacy

U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack announced yesterday in Manama that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is expected to visit Washington, possibly later this month, in what could mark a historic turning point in relations between the two countries.

The visit, tentatively scheduled for after 10 November, is intended to explore Syria’s potential participation in the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State (IS) and broader cooperation on counterterrorism and reconstruction.

If confirmed, it would be the first official visit by a Syrian head of state to Washington since Syria’s independence in 1946, hinting at a significant reshaping of Middle Eastern alignments.

Sharaa’s administration, which emerged from a post-conflict transition, has sought to restore Syria’s legitimacy on the world stage by engaging Western and Gulf powers and indicating a willingness to pursue indirect talks with Israel.

For Washington, this outreach reflects a pragmatic effort to stabilize Syria, curb Iranian influence, and consolidate gains made against IS.

The visit, however, remains politically fraught. Its success depends on potential U.S. sanctions relief and security assurances for Sharaa’s government, as it deals with a flat-lining economy, numerous internal security and political fractures, and Israeli occupation of large parts of its territory.

Managed carefully, the Washington visit could lay the foundations for Syria’s gradual reintegration into the international order; mishandled, it could expose Sharaa to further domestic dissent and greater instability.

The basic fact is that large numbers of Syria’s people, especially Druze, Alawites, and Kurds, are fear integration into a new centralized Syrian state, while an Islamic State insurgency continues to simmer in rural areas of the east and north.

Palestinian factions in Cairo seek postwar formula for Gaza; including Hamas

Palestinian factions including Fatah and Hamas are holding talks in Cairo to form a postwar administration for Gaza, in what may become the most serious reconciliation effort in years.

Egypt, serving as mediator, has brought together eight Palestinian groups to discuss the creation of a technocratic committee to manage Gaza’s civil affairs (health, education, reconstruction, and border crossings) after the war.

The proposed body would operate nominally under the Palestinian Authority (PA) but be composed largely of independent technocrats from Gaza, a formula meant to bridge the deep divide between Hamas and the PA while avoiding overt partisan control.

Such an arrangement could leave Hamas with a measure of political and administrative influence despite Israel’s insistence that the group be fully excluded from Gaza’s future governance.

Disputes persist over control of the Rafah crossing with Egypt, the status of Hamas’s armed wing, and the framework for security coordination that would prevent renewed conflict.

For Israel, any settlement that leaves Hamas with residual authority would compromise its declared goal of erasing the group’s influence.

For Palestinians, however, compromise may be the only viable route to stability and reconstruction.

The process also tests the PA’s capacity to govern and its legitimacy among Gazans after nearly two decades of political and territorial division.

Even if a technocratic administration is established, its durability will depend on the balance between Hamas’s entrenched local networks, Israel’s security conditions, and the confidence of international donors. Meanwhile, Stage Two of the Trump peace plan has still not been executed, as Israel waits for the return of the bodies of the last remaining hostages.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Jihadist pressure tightens around Mali’s capital

Mali’s security situation is deteriorating rapidly as the al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) tightens its grip around the capital, Bamako.

Following urgent calls by the U.S. embassy and other foreign missions for citizens to leave the country, reports suggest that JNIM fighters have positioned themselves along key supply routes, effectively cutting off fuel convoys that sustain the capital and much of central Mali.

In an audio message circulated by the group, JNIM leaders banned the transport of fuel from eastern Mali toward the west, naming towns such as Yerma, Douari, Kouba, Bana, Yessi, Serma and Toula as prohibited transit points.

The statement warned fuel traders not to sell beyond these areas, saying the restriction was intended to deprive the Malian army and its allied Donzo militias of fuel.

Although JNIM is Mali’s most powerful jihadist network, it is not alone. The group is in conflict with the local branch of the Islamic State, known as Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).

The two factions have waged brutal turf wars over smuggling routes, recruitment networks and taxation zones, particularly in the Gao and Ménaka regions.

This inter-jihadist struggle has made Mali’s security landscape even more volatile, as both groups exploit the government’s weakness while occasionally battling each other for dominance.

Despite JNIM’s expanding influence and operations extending into Benin and Nigeria, it remains incapable of capturing or governing Bamako outright.

Even so, the fuel blockade marks a significant escalation, designed to strangle the state’s logistics, sap military morale and extend the group’s reach far beyond its traditional desert strongholds.

A jihadist takeover of Mali’s government remains unlikely at this point, but the collapse of the country into a failed state is looking increasingly likely.

Trump threatens military action in Nigeria over Islamist violence

President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that he had instructed the Pentagon to prepare for possible military action in Nigeria, warning that the U.S. might move “guns-a-blazing” to eliminate Islamist groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province, which he accused of murdering Christians.

He also threatened to suspend U.S. aid to Nigeria if its government continued, in his words, to “allow the killing of Christians.”

The Nigerian government quickly rejected the accusation, insisting that it does not condone sectarian persecution and that victims of extremist violence include both Muslims and Christians.

Although Trump’s rhetoric was characteristically forceful, any U.S. intervention in Nigeria would face substantial legal and operational obstacles.

Under the War Powers Resolution, the president may authorize limited strikes or special operations but would need congressional approval for a prolonged campaign.

Militarily, combating Boko Haram and Islamic State’s local affiliate would be arduous: both are dispersed across difficult terrain in the Lake Chad Basin and deeply embedded within local populations. The U.S. military has traditionally assisted regional partners through intelligence, training, and logistics rather than committing to large deployments.

Trump’s comments seem directed partly at domestic audiences justifiably concerned about the persecution of Christians abroad.

Move fast and break things

Judge renews block on Trump’s Guard deployment to Portland

Federal Judge Karin Immergut of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon has renewed her injunction blocking President Donald Trump’s plan to deploy the National Guard to Portland, ruling that the administration failed to present credible evidence to justify the move.

After a three-day trial in late October, during which Oregon and the federal government submitted hundreds of pages of documentation, Immergut has found that the White House had exaggerated the scale of unrest and failed to meet the legal threshold required to invoke emergency powers under 10 U.S.C. § 12406. She dismissed the administration’s portrayal of Portland as “under siege” as “untethered to the facts,” noting that violent incidents were sporadic and that local law enforcement remained capable of maintaining order.

The court concluded that federalizing Oregon’s National Guard without the state’s consent violated the Tenth Amendment and encroached upon Oregon’s constitutional sovereignty.

The injunction will remain in effect until a final ruling on 7 November 2025, though the administration is expected to appeal.

The case illustrates the continuing judicial constraints on executive authority in domestic security operations and shows how state sovereignty can still limit federal intervention under the U.S. Constitution.

Mexico shaken by the murder of anti-cartel mayor

Fury has swept across Mexico after the assassination of Carlos Manzo, the mayor of Uruapan, the second-largest city in the state of Michoacán.

Manzo, a charismatic and outspoken politician, was shot dead on the night of 1 November 2025 while celebrating the Day of the Dead with his wife and young son. The killing took place in a crowded public square filled with families, a display of criminal audacity that has shocked the country.

For months, Manzo had been a rare voice of open defiance against the cartels, broadcasting livestreams that pleaded with President Claudia Sheinbaum to send federal troops to his city and condemning her inaction when no help came.

Once a member of the ruling Morena Party, he had broken ranks to run as an independent, launching an ambitious municipal security drive that challenged cartel dominance in Michoacán’s lucrative avocado belt.

His killing laid bare both the reach of organized crime and the fragility of state institutions tasked with containing it. Public outrage has been fierce, with demonstrations spreading from Uruapan to Morelia and other cities.

Some observers believe this could mark a turning point, as anger hardens into a national movement against impunity. Others suspect the opposition will seize on the tragedy to weaken Sheinbaum’s government rather than to pursue genuine reforms.

With nationwide protests planned for 15 November and investigators pursuing the killers, Mexico, again, faces a moment of reckoning.

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