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What you need to know

Supreme Court to weigh limits of Trump’s tariff authority

This week, the Supreme Court of the United States will hear one of the most consequential cases of in recent history: the challenge to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The case does not concern whether tariffs are wise economic policy but whether the president had lawful authority to impose them.

The Trump administration relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to justify broad import duties, claiming the law granted the executive wide discretion in economic emergencies. Lower courts disagreed, ruling that the statute does not provide such sweeping powers.

The dispute now before the justices will test the boundaries of presidential authority and the extent to which Congress can delegate control over trade and economic measures to the executive branch.

More is at stake than tariff policy alone. The case engages the “major questions” doctrine, which holds that when an issue carries vast economic or political weight, Congress must speak clearly before granting executive action, and the related non-delegation principle, which limits how much legislative power may be transferred to the presidency.

The Court’s decision could redefine the balance between Congress and the White House, determining how freely presidents may act on trade and setting a precedent for future conflicts involving sanctions, national security, and economic regulation.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

U.S. schedules first nuclear-capable missile test since Trump’s directive

The United States has scheduled its first test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile since President Donald Trump ordered the renewal of nuclear testing, marking an important moment in the evolution of U.S. deterrence policy.

The launch, expected from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, will involve an unarmed Minuteman III missile aimed toward the Reagan Test Site in the Marshall Islands. Officials have said that no nuclear explosion will occur, but the test nonetheless represents the most visible display of America’s nuclear delivery capability in years.

The move follows Trump’s directive to resume elements of nuclear testing in response to the modernization of strategic arsenals in Russia and China.

Washington regards such launches as routine demonstrations of reliability, intended to confirm the performance of solid-fuel boosters, guidance systems, and re-entry vehicles.

For now, the scheduled test seems to be a technical exercise, but it also demonstrates a more assertive U.S. nuclear posture that could alter the strategic calculation of other players in this new Cold War.

UK resupplies Ukraine with Storm Shadows as refinery strikes intensify

The United Kingdom has quietly delivered another batch of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, ensuring that Kyiv remains capable of conducting long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory as winter approaches.

The transfer, made without public disclosure of timing or quantity, was reportedly intended to replenish Ukraine’s missile stocks ahead of the colder months, when poor weather could hamper drone operations.

The Storm Shadow, a Franco-British air-launched cruise missile with a range of more than 250 kilometers (155 miles), cannot be used without U.S. technical and intelligence support, suggesting that President Donald Trump’s administration has approved their continued operational use against targets inside Russia.

The delivery comes as Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s refinery network enters its third month. Since August, Kyiv has systematically targeted critical points in Russia’s fuel-processing system, striking the same sites repeatedly to ensure sustained disruption. Facilities such as the Saratov, Bashneft-Novoil, and Novokuibyshevsk refineries have been attacked multiple times, while the Lukoil-operated Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod (set ablaze on 4 November) marks the twenty-third confirmed strike in the campaign.

Independent analysts estimate that these strikes have reduced Russia’s refining output by roughly 7 to 10 percent since August, although Moscow’s Energy Ministry maintains that the damage is temporary.

Several refineries, including Saratov and Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim, are believed to remain partly offline. Strategically, the campaign represents Ukraine’s effort to inflict economic pain, strain Russia’s military fuel supply, and expose the vulnerability of its energy infrastructure.

Drones spotted over Belgian nuclear base raise espionage fears

Several unidentified drones were seen over Belgium’s Kleine-Brogel air base for the third time in less than 24 hours, prompting concern among NATO officials and Belgian authorities.

The base, home to the Belgian Air Force’s 10th Tactical Wing, is widely believed to store U.S. B61 tactical nuclear bombs under NATO’s nuclear-sharing program, making it one of Europe’s most sensitive military sites.

On consecutive nights from 31 October to 2 November, drones were detected flying above or near the installation, prompting a police helicopter to give chase before the aircraft abruptly vanished.

Belgium’s defence minister, Theo Francken, described the flights as a “clear mission targeting Kleine Brogel,” suggesting a coordinated espionage effort rather than a civilian intrusion.

Belgian forces attempted to use signal-jamming and counter-drone equipment, but these measures failed to neutralize the threat. The government has since authorized the military to shoot down unidentified drones if it can be done safely, reflecting growing unease over aerial surveillance. Officials have not identified who was responsible, though they have indicated the probable involvement of a state actor.

Analysts view the incidents as part of a broader pattern of hybrid operations across Europe, where drones have been spotted near energy facilities, transport hubs, and defense installations.

With F-16 fighters currently stationed at Kleine-Brogel and F-35 stealth jets expected to arrive in 2027, the repeated incursions illustrate NATO’s vulnerability to low-cost reconnaissance technology and the continuing challenge of securing high-value nuclear sites from unmanned aerial threats.

Poland builds its own drone wall

Poland has decided to move ahead with constructing its own “drone wall,” opting not to wait for the European Union to finalize its collective anti-drone initiative.

Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said Warsaw would soon announce a national system to detect, jam, and neutralize hostile drones, describing it as a matter of national security that cannot be stalled by Brussels’ bureaucracy.

Defense officials said the government will present its investment plan later this month, with the first operational components expected within three months of the announcement. Full deployment is planned within two years.

The system will reportedly integrate radar surveillance, electronic-warfare technology, and kinetic interceptors to defend critical infrastructure, borders, and military sites.

Although the initiative coincides with a broader EU effort to create a coordinated air-defense network against low-altitude threats, Polish officials stressed that their system will be designed primarily for national defense. They said the EU-wide framework could later “complement” Poland’s project.

Birthplace of civilization

U.S. drafts UN resolution to deploy Gaza stabilization force

The United States has circulated a draft resolution at the United Nations Security Council calling for the creation of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza as part of a broader plan to consolidate the ceasefire and rebuild the territory after months of war. The document, which has been published by Axios, would grant the U.S. and other participating countries a broad mandate to govern Gaza and provide security through the end of 2027, with the possibility of extensions beyond that date.

According to diplomatic sources, fourteen Arab countries have, separately, reached agreement on a binding draft for the UN Security Council regarding the administration of Gaza once the fighting ends.

The U.S. draft endorses the Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict of 29 September 2025 and the Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity of 13 October 2025, establishing a diplomatic and administrative framework for Gaza’s postwar transition.

It creates a new interim authority, the Board of Peace (BoP), endowed with international legal personality to oversee reconstruction, coordinate humanitarian assistance, and manage governance until a reformed Palestinian Authority is deemed capable of assuming control.

Under BoP supervision, a technocratic Palestinian committee composed of apolitical professionals from Gaza would manage day-to-day civil affairs, while donor governments and international institutions such as the World Bank would fund redevelopment through a dedicated trust fund.

The proposal further authorizes the establishment of a multinational International Stabilization Force to operate under unified command and in close coordination with Israel and Egypt.

The force would monitor and enforce the ceasefire, assist in the demilitarization of Gaza, train and support vetted Palestinian police units, protect civilians and humanitarian operations, and secure border crossings and movement corridors. It would operate under the strategic guidance of the BoP and rely on voluntary contributions from participating states and donor institutions.

The resolution also emphasizes the resumption of humanitarian aid under strict oversight to prevent diversion by armed groups and urges the World Bank and other financial institutions to support reconstruction through dedicated funding mechanisms.

If adopted, the resolution would represent the most far-reaching international intervention in Gaza since Israel’s 2005 withdrawal, effectively transforming the territory into a temporary international protectorate under coordinated Arab-Western supervision.

Lebanese president signals readiness for talks with Israel

President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon said the country has “no choice but to negotiate” with Israel, arguing that dialogue is preferable to war, which he described as “bringing only destruction.”

His remarks, delivered at Baabda Palace on 3 November 2025, reflected a pragmatic acceptance that prolonged conflict achieves little.

Aoun noted that every war in history eventually ends with negotiation, adding that “negotiation is not conducted with a friend or ally, but with an enemy.” He emphasised that “the language of negotiation is more important than the language of war,” and that Lebanon must put national interest above sectarian, religious, or electoral considerations. While he expressed Lebanon’s willingness to pursue talks, he cautioned that any negotiation must be mutual and “cannot be one-sided.”

His tone suggested a measured shift toward diplomacy rather than a formal opening of peace talks. However, no full transcript of his address has been released, and the phrasing about “ending Israeli occupation and halting daily attacks” appears to originate from media summaries rather than his own words.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri echoed Aoun’s cautious pragmatism, revealing that the Lebanese army has deployed more than 9,000 troops and officers south of the Litani River. “The army is capable of deploying at the borders, but what hinders that is Israel’s continued occupation of vast parts of our lands,” Berri said in Beirut.

Together, Aoun’s and Berri’s remarks signal a subtle but significant recalibration of Lebanon’s public stance: the state now appears to be asserting both its willingness to negotiate and its sovereign control over its own territory.

The emphasis on diplomacy, state authority, and mutual responsibility points to a cautious attempt to project Lebanon as a unified actor capable of defending its borders and pursuing peace on its own terms.

Saudi crown prince to visit White House as Washington renews Arab diplomacy

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is to visit the White House on 18 November for an official working meeting with President Donald Trump, his first trip to Washington since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The agenda will span a wide range of issues, from a potential U.S.–Saudi defense pact to new investment and commercial initiatives. Particular attention will be given to Saudi Arabia’s possible accession to the Abraham Accords and to strengthening bilateral security cooperation. Riyadh is said to be seeking formal U.S. security guarantees and access to more advanced weaponry.

The timing is notable. The visit is due to take place only days after the anticipated arrival of Syrian President Ahmed Al Shaara, whose own trip to Washington will be the first ever by a Syrian head of state. His talks are expected to focus on lifting U.S. sanctions, normalizing relations, and exploring potential participation in regional peace frameworks.

The near coincidence of the Saudi and Syrian visits suggests a coordinated diplomatic effort by Washington to reassert its role as the central broker of Arab-Israeli normalization and regional security.

Israel moves to mandate executions of Palestinians for killing Israelis

Israel’s National Security Committee has approved a bill mandating the death penalty for any Palestinian convicted of killing an Israeli, clearing the way for its first reading in the Knesset.

The measure, backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, would make executions mandatory in such cases, forbid commutation, and lower the judicial threshold from unanimity to a simple majority.

It marks a sharp break from Israel’s long-standing restraint in applying capital punishment; the only judicial execution in Israeli history was that of Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann in 1962.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Germany moves to deport Syrian refugees as Merz declares the war over

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced a sweeping shift in migration policy, declaring that the civil war in Syria is over and that Syrian refugees in Germany should begin returning home.

Merz argued that there are now “absolutely no grounds for asylum” for Syrians, suggesting that voluntary repatriation should be the first step in helping rebuild their country.

While encouraging many to go back on their own, he said that those who refuse could later face deportation, with forced removals initially focusing on individuals convicted of crimes or lacking legal status.

Merz’s announcement comes amid mounting domestic pressure to address migration, as his Christian Democratic Union seeks to counter the growing support of the far-right Alternative for Germany. He has invited Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to Berlin to discuss the coordination of returns and potential German assistance for Syria’s reconstruction.

The policy marks a wider recalibration of Europe’s approach to migration, as Germany, the bloc’s largest economy and political center, adopts a more hard-line stance on asylum.

If enacted, the plan could prompt other European Union members to reconsider their attitude to refugees. At the same time, it signals a possible diplomatic opening between Berlin and Damascus, reflecting a realpolitik acceptance of the new post-Assad political regime.

Move fast and break things

Fed’s record liquidity move meets a frozen housing market

The Federal Reserve has injected $29.4 billion into the U.S. banking system through an overnight repurchase agreement, the largest liquidity operation in recent memory. The move coincided with record use of the Fed’s standing repo facility, as banks borrowed more than $50 billion in a single day amid tightening liquidity. 

Analysts believe the intervention reflects growing stress in short-term funding markets, with bank reserves having fallen to multi-year lows near $2.8 trillion. The Fed insists the measure is temporary, aimed at easing funding pressures rather than signaling a return to large-scale quantitative easing. Even so, the scale of the action has drawn attention, suggesting a financial system increasingly reliant on central-bank liquidity to keep functioning, which is an indicator of fragility rather than vigor.

At the same time, the U.S. housing market has seized up. Only 2.8 percent of homes, roughly 28 out of every 1,000, changed hands in the first nine months of 2025, according to real-estate firm Redfin. That is the lowest turnover in at least three decades, as high mortgage rates and stubbornly elevated prices have left both buyers and sellers inactive. Many homeowners remain “locked in” by pandemic-era mortgages below 5 percent, unwilling to trade them for new loans at 6 percent or higher. The result is a market starved of supply, marked by low listings and near-record stagnation in housing mobility.

Taken together, the Fed’s liquidity injections and the paralysis in housing reveal an economy struggling to breathe under the weight of prolonged monetary restraint. Short-term funding support may stabilize markets, but it also exposes how brittle the system has become. Meanwhile, the standstill in housing constrains mobility, suppresses consumption, and risks spilling back into the credit system, further restraining growth. The picture is not one of imminent collapse, but of an economy increasingly dependent on central-bank life support while real activity slows to a crawl.

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