The U.N. lifted sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, signaling an international reassessment of Damascus ahead of Sharaa’s planned meeting with President Donald Trump. In Washington, Treasury imposed new sanctions on Hezbollah’s financial network, freezing assets tied to Iranian funding channels and heightening pressure on Lebanon’s fragile economy. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords, reinforcing U.S. efforts to expand Israel’s normalization beyond the Arab world. In Europe, NATO declared it had overtaken Russia in ammunition production, marking a symbolic industrial turning point in the alliance’s long contest with Moscow. Iran’s president warned that Tehran might face evacuation as drought and mismanagement push the capital toward a severe water crisis. Domestically, the U.S. faced disruption and unease: flight cuts began as the FAA reduced air traffic amid the continuing government shutdown, while a suspicious package incident at Joint Base Andrews prompted heightened military security reviews. President Trump also ended Temporary Protected Status for South Sudanese nationals. Markets reflected the tension: U.S. equities slid sharply on weak labor and export data, while investors reassessed growth prospects. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
UN lifts sanctions on Syrian leaders
The United Nations Security Council voted on 6 November to lift sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, marking a significant shift in the international approach to Syria’s leadership. The U.S.-drafted resolution passed with 14 votes in favor and one abstention, from China, removing the two men from the U.N.’s ISIL–Al-Qaida sanctions list. The decision comes ahead of President Sharaa’s scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, reflecting Washington’s attempt to reframe relations with Damascus after years of estrangement. U.N. monitors cited the lack of evidence linking Syria’s current leadership to Al-Qaida-related networks as the main justification for the delisting, a position shared by most Council members but approached cautiously by Beijing, which expressed concern about counter-terrorism safeguards.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, once a leading insurgent commander in the group that evolved from the Al-Nusra Front into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has sought to recast himself as the figurehead of a post-war Syrian transition. His interior minister, Anas Khattab, a former HTS security official turned state bureaucrat, was also subject to U.N. sanctions until now.
Their rehabilitation marks a watershed for the international community, suggesting that Syria’s leadership is being redefined less as a pariah regime and more as a potential partner.
The lifting of sanctions could ease some constraints on Syria’s economic reintegration and reconstruction, though formidable obstacles remain, including U.S. domestic measures under the Caesar Act and continuing skepticism over the government’s human-rights record and institutional reform.
For the U.S. and its allies, the decision opens the way for a diplomatic reset in a country that has long stood at the fault line of Middle Eastern conflict. Arab governments are likely to view the U.N. vote as an invitation to expand engagement and pursue reconstruction contracts, while private investors and risk advisors will balance emerging opportunities against persistent political and security volatility. China’s abstention reflects a wider strategic wariness about legitimizing former insurgent leaders without firm assurances of stability.
The meeting in Washington is expected to define a delicate new phase in U.S.–Syrian relations, testing whether Sharaa’s evolution from terrorist to statesman can deliver credible governance and durable peace.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
NATO says it has overtaken Russia in ammunition production
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that, after several years of industrial expansion, the alliance has finally surpassed Russia in ammunition production. Speaking at the NATO Defence Industry Forum in Bucharest on 6 November, Rutte said that while Moscow once produced more munitions than all NATO allies combined, “now everything is different.” He credited the shift to the opening of dozens of new production lines, the enlargement of existing factories, and the highest levels of weapons manufacturing seen in decades.
The declaration marks a symbolic turning point in the long-held belief that Russia’s war economy enjoyed an advantage in sheer output. It suggests that NATO’s coordinated industrial drive, launched after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, is now paying off. Rutte pointed to notable progress in the production of 155-millimeter artillery shells, the most critical ammunition for sustaining Ukraine’s defense, and said overall output was “much better” than a year earlier.
The statement carries strategic significance. For the first time since the Cold War, NATO appears to have regained industrial parity, or even superiority, in one of the most fundamental measures of prolonged warfare. However, the claim comes without detailed public data, and doubts remain about whether the alliance can maintain this pace. Russia continues to operate on a war-economy basis, emphasizing low-cost, high-volume production and drawing external support from partners such as North Korea and Iran.
Even so, Rutte’s remarks reflect a broader transformation across Europe and North America, where defense industries are once again running at full capacity after decades of decline. The trend points towards not only renewed military readiness but also a closer integration of industrial strength with strategic purpose.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Tehran faces possible evacuation amid deepening water crisis
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued an unusually stark warning that Tehran may soon have to be evacuated if the city’s worsening water crisis is not brought under control.
He said that water rationing will begin in the coming weeks, after not a single millimeter of rain has fallen in Tehran province since September.
Reservoirs supplying the capital have dropped to critically low levels, with dam reserves down to roughly five percent of capacity. The main sources of the city’s water, dams such as Amir Kabir, Latyan, and Mamlu, are nearly depleted after five consecutive years of drought and scant rainfall. Inflow to Tehran’s reservoirs has fallen by more than 40 percent compared with last year, and officials warn that several dams now hold only days’ worth of usable water.
The crisis reflects not only climatic extremes but also decades of over-extraction of groundwater, inefficient irrigation, rapid urbanization, and aging infrastructure.
Tehran’s population of more than ten million places immense strain on a water system designed for milder conditions. Authorities say rationing will begin shortly, with hospitals and essential services given priority while industries and households face steep restrictions.
The government is considering emergency measures such as trucking in water, expanding recycling programs, and accelerating desalination projects, though these are only temporary remedies.
In the longer term, Iran faces difficult choices: reforming agricultural water use, relocating populations from arid regions, and possibly shifting administrative functions away from Tehran.
The president’s statement is among the clearest acknowledgments so far that a combination of climate stress, mismanagement, and over-consumption has pushed Iran’s capital to the edge of an unprecedented urban water collapse.
New Treasury sanctions on Hezbollah
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has announced new sanctions targeting Hezbollah’s financial network in Lebanon, revealing what it described as a sophisticated mechanism for channeling more than US $1 billion from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Qods Force to Hezbollah since January 2025.
The measures, issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control under Executive Order 13224, name several individuals accused of laundering money and managing the group’s commercial front operations.
Among those designated is Ossama Jaber, alleged to have worked directly with Lebanese money-exchange houses to move tens of millions of dollars in cash between September 2024 and February 2025. Also listed are Ja’far Qasir and Ali Qasir, relatives of Hezbollah’s late finance chief, accused of overseeing the sale of Iranian oil and the export of metals and chemicals through front companies. Another target is Samer Kasbar, director of Hokoul SAL Offshore Company, which the Treasury said collaborated with Hezbollah’s financial apparatus.
All property belonging to these individuals within U.S. jurisdiction has been frozen, and foreign financial institutions that knowingly conduct transactions with them risk secondary sanctions. The action reflects Washington’s determination to cut off Hezbollah’s access to hard currency and to curb its exploitation of Lebanon’s cash-based economy, described by the Treasury as a weakness that allows illicit funds to mingle with legitimate commerce.
The designations expose the fragility of Lebanon’s informal financial sector and increase pressure on Beirut to rein in unlicensed money-exchange operations. They also highlight the continuing financial link between Iran and Hezbollah and indicated the compliance risks for banks and businesses operating in or through Lebanon.
The move may presage a broader tightening of sanctions on Lebanese intermediaries, which could deepen liquidity pressures in an already battered economy.
For regional analysts and risk advisors, the episode demonstrates how terrorist-financing networks often intersect with trade in commodities such as oil, metals, and chemicals, and how informal financial systems in fragile states can serve as channels for sanctioned entities.
The Treasury’s action may prompt Hezbollah to diversify its revenue streams, possibly turning to other jurisdictions, digital assets, or legitimate-seeming enterprises abroad. Though intended to weaken Hezbollah’s financial autonomy, the sanctions could also aggravate Lebanon’s instability, where the group remains deeply embedded in both politics and the economy.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
Kazakhstan joins the Abraham Accords
In an unexpected move, Kazakhstan announced that it would join the Abraham Accords, the U.S.-brokered framework for normalizing relations between Israel and Muslim-majority states.
The decision is striking because Kazakhstan has maintained full diplomatic ties with Israel since 1992 and already allows visa-free travel for Israeli citizens. Unlike earlier signatories such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Kazakhstan is not an Arab state but a Central Asian one, making its entry largely symbolic rather than transformative.
For Kazakhstan, the move fits neatly within its long-standing policy of balanced diplomacy, seeking cooperation with Western partners while preserving relations with Russia, China, and the wider Muslim world.
By joining the Accords, Kazakhstan may perhaps attract greater investment, especially in technology, agriculture, and defense collaboration with Israel, while reinforcing its image as a moderate Muslim nation able to mediate between rival geopolitical camps.
Still, the gesture alters little in practice, since the two countries already enjoy cordial relations. Its chief value lies in symbolism, offering both Israel and the U.S. a diplomatic success amid an unsettled geopolitical climate.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
Flight cuts deepen as U.S. aviation braces for more delays
The Federal Aviation Administration began introducing phased reductions in flight traffic on Friday morning, starting with a 4% cut at major U.S. airports from 6 a.m. Eastern Time. The curbs are set to increase to 6% on Tuesday, 8% on Thursday, and 10% by next Friday if Congress fails to resolve the ongoing government shutdown. Airlines have been left to decide which flights to cancel, adding to growing disruption across the country.
By mid-day Friday, 617 flights had been cancelled nationwide, including 235 by American Airlines, 149 by Delta, 121 by Southwest, and 112 by United. The FAA also issued a ground stop at New York’s LaGuardia Airport because of acute staffing shortages among air-traffic controllers, temporarily halting all departures and arrivals. Officials said they expected cancellations to level off later in the day, although air-traffic-control data indicated that delays could persist at major hubs, including Las Vegas, Boston, LaGuardia, Newark, San Francisco, and John F. Kennedy, beginning around 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
A mix of reduced staffing, congested schedules, and difficult weather has left both airlines and passengers bracing for another day of widespread disruption.
U.S. markets fall as investor optimism falters
U.S. stock market losses deepened on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 2 percent and the broader S&P 500 falling about 1 percent, as investors grew uneasy about signs of economic weakness and inflated valuations among major technology firms.
Selling gathered pace after unofficial reports of widespread job cuts across the U.S., which heightened concerns that the labor market is weakening and that corporate earnings could soon follow. Weak export data from China added to the unease, fueling fears of slowing global demand and renewed trade frictions.
Technology and growth-oriented stocks, which dominate the Nasdaq 100, led the decline as investors questioned whether lofty valuations could hold up in a cooling economy and amid the prospect of tighter financial conditions. Analysts also pointed to anxiety over U.S. fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s next steps, noting that uncertainty about future interest rates continues to unsettle equity markets.
The downturn reflects a broader shift in sentiment: from confidence in sustained growth to caution over profit durability and the strength of global trade. For investors and policymakers alike, the day’s declines highlight how responsive markets remain to labor data, Chinese demand trends, and (most importantly) signals from Washington and the Federal Reserve.
Trump ends protections for South Sudanese nationals
President Donald Trump has decided to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for South Sudanese citizens living in the United States, a move that will compel hundreds to leave the country within two months or face deportation.
The Department of Homeland Security said the protection, which has allowed South Sudanese nationals to live and work legally in the U.S. since 2011, will formally end on 5 January 2026, after a 60-day grace period. Officials justified the decision by arguing that conditions in South Sudan “no longer meet the statutory requirements” for TPS, citing an improved security situation and a reduction in large-scale conflict.
Roughly 232 people are known to be directly affected, although some reports suggest the true number of South Sudanese TPS holders may reach several thousand. The administration has said that those affected can apply for voluntary departure, a program offering free repatriation flights and modest financial support, though anyone remaining after the deadline risks forced removal.
The decision is part of a broader effort to narrow humanitarian immigration programs and reduce non-citizen populations living under temporary protection.
South Sudan remains unstable, marked by political tension, food insecurity, and a fragile healthcare system. Legal challenges are likely, with advocacy groups arguing that the decision ignores the humanitarian purpose of the TPS framework and may breach procedural fairness.
The move signals a shift toward a more restrictive interpretation of humanitarian protections, setting a possible precedent for other nationalities whose temporary status is due for review.
Watchlist
Suspicious package incident at Joint Base Andrews
A security scare unfolded on Thursday at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland after a suspicious package containing an unidentified white powder and political propaganda was delivered to the installation. The package was opened inside a building on the base, causing several personnel to fall ill and be taken to hospital for treatment. Emergency crews swiftly evacuated the affected building and an adjacent one, setting up a security perimeter as hazardous-materials teams carried out tests. Preliminary results found no immediate chemical or biological threat, although the substance has not been formally identified.
The presence of political material alongside the powder has led investigators to suspect that the delivery was a deliberate act intended to intimidate or draw attention to a political cause, rather than a random prank.
Joint Base Andrews, which houses Air Force One and other senior U.S. government aircraft, is among the most secure military facilities in the country. Any lapse in its mail-screening system therefore raises serious security concerns.
Officials are investigating how the parcel entered the base and whether it was addressed to a specific unit or individual. Although no fatalities have been reported, the episode has triggered tighter security protocols and a review of mail-handling procedures across several U.S. military installations. Early indications suggest the powder may be harmless, though investigators have not ruled out the possibility of an ideologically motivated hoax or symbolic threat.
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What happened today:
1775 - Lord Dunmore’s Proclamation offers freedom to enslaved people who join British forces. 1876 - Disputed U.S. presidential election between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel J. Tilden. 1917 - Bolsheviks seize power in Petrograd in the October Revolution. 1918 - Free State of Bavaria is proclaimed as German monarchy collapses. 1944 - Franklin D. Roosevelt wins a fourth term as U.S. president. 1956 - UN General Assembly creates the first UN Emergency Force for Suez. 1972 - Richard Nixon is re-elected U.S. president in a landslide. 2004 - Second Battle of Fallujah begins. 2007 - Georgia declares a state of emergency amid mass protests. 2010 - Myanmar holds its first national election in two decades.



