In Washington, Senate leaders neared a bipartisan deal to reopen the U.S. government after one of the longest shutdowns in history, pairing a short-term funding bill with full-year appropriations for key agencies. Abroad, President Donald Trump unveiled a populist economic plan featuring 50-year mortgages and tariff-funded stimulus checks, while Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaʽ al-Sudani set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces by 2026. U.S. envoys in Beirut pressed Lebanon to curb Hezbollah’s arms as Israeli strikes intensified, suggesting coordinated international military-diplomatic pressure. In Europe, the EU and UK moved to tighten anti–money-laundering and crypto rules, heralding a post-anonymity era for finance. Meanwhile, the White House accused Britain’s Ofcom of overreach under its Online Safety Act, straining transatlantic ties. Meanwhile, Russia’s largest bombardment of Ukraine’s power grid since the war began plunged millions into darkness, coinciding with Germany’s explosive claim that Ukrainian agents sabotaged Nord Stream. At home, U.S. air travel collapsed amid mass cancellations linked to staffing shortages, and Belgium scrambled to investigate drone incursions over key infrastructure, fresh signs of Europe’s vulnerability to hybrid threats. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Senate nears deal to reopen U.S. government
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said an agreement to reopen the U.S. government is “nearly ready,” as bipartisan negotiations move toward a breakthrough after weeks of gridlock.
The emerging deal, according to congressional aides, would combine a short-term continuing resolution to restart government operations with several full-year appropriations bills covering key departments such as agriculture, veterans affairs, and military construction.
At least ten Senate Democrats are expected to support advancing the measure, enough to overcome procedural obstacles and allow the bill to progress. The compromise reflects mounting pressure on both parties as the shutdown, now one of the longest in U.S. history, disrupts vital services including air travel, food assistance, and federal employee pay.
A principal point of contention has been the fate of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Democrats are seeking assurances that a vote on extending them will take place later in the year, while Republicans insist that reopening the government must precede any discussion of healthcare funding.
If approved, the agreement would likely keep the government operating through January and include back pay for furloughed federal workers.
Even so, House approval remains uncertain, and the deal may merely delay the next fiscal confrontation until early 2026.
The talks suggest both parties acknowledge the economic and political costs of a prolonged shutdown.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
Russia’s mass strike cripples Ukraine’s power grid
Ukraine suffered its most devastating assault on energy infrastructure since the start of the war after Russia launched a large-scale overnight attack on the country’s power grid on the night of 7–8 November.
According to Ukrainian officials, Moscow fired 458 drones, including more than 300 Iranian-made Shahed models, and 45 missiles, of which 32 were ballistic. The barrage caused extensive destruction across several regions, igniting fires and forcing operators to shut down key generating plants.
Centrenergo, one of Ukraine’s main state-owned electricity producers, reported that generation had fallen to zero, describing the situation as a “total shutdown.” “Stations are on fire. We’ve stopped, generation is at zero—completely lost what we had tirelessly restored,” the company said in a statement.
Millions of Ukrainians now face the prospect of enduring winter without heat, light, or running water. Emergency power imports from the European grid are being considered, although transmission capacity remains limited. Damage has been confirmed in the Kyiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions, as well as to thermal plants in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
The Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories has ordered the mandatory evacuation of families with children from parts of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions most exposed to the strikes. Buses are being deployed to move residents to safer areas farther west.
Western analysts regard the coordinated nature of the assault as evidence that Russia has shifted to a winter campaign of energy warfare, seeking to exhaust Ukraine’s reconstruction capacity while testing the durability of European support. Each wave of strikes forces Ukraine to expend expensive air-defense munitions, further stretching its logistics.
This escalation coincides with the findings of Germany’s three-year investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, which has intensified Europe’s political divisions. German prosecutors now attribute the 2022 bombings to an elite Ukrainian military unit acting under the oversight of then-commander General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, allegedly in an effort to sever Russia’s energy leverage over Europe. Arrest warrants have been issued for several Ukrainian divers and soldiers.
Poland has refused to extradite one suspect, calling him a “hero,” while another, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) veteran Serhii K., was arrested in Italy, where a court has approved his extradition to Germany in December. Berlin’s findings have unsettled European Union unity, with some leaders warning that any confirmed state-sponsored role could unravel Europe’s wartime consensus.
Belgium investigates more drone incursions over airport and nuclear plant
Belgium has faced a new wave of drone incursions after unidentified aircraft appeared over Liège Airport and the Doel Nuclear Power Plant, prompting a temporary suspension of airport operations and renewed concern about the security of critical infrastructure.
Liège Airport, one of Europe’s largest cargo hubs, halted flights twice between the nights of 6 and 7 November after air-traffic controllers detected several drones within its airspace. Operations later resumed, but officials remained on high alert as investigators sought to determine the origin of the aircraft.
At around the same time, Belgian authorities reported drone activity near the Doel Nuclear Power Station, which generates a significant portion of the country’s electricity. Although the government has not confirmed whether the same operator was involved, the incidents followed earlier reports of drones overflying military installations, including Kleine-Brogel Air Base, which stores NATO nuclear weapons.
The pattern suggested a coordinated effort to test Belgium’s defenses.
Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken described the flights as possible “spy operations,” suggesting that smaller reconnaissance drones may have been used to test communications frequencies before larger, more disruptive aircraft were deployed. The incidents have prompted emergency consultations within the government and accelerated plans for a national air-security monitoring center, expected to be operational by early 2026.
They also revealed the country’s limited capacity to detect and disable drones, as well as legal uncertainty about neutralizing such aircraft over populated areas. The timing of the incursions (during peak cargo operations at night) amplified disruption and hinted at deliberate targeting.
While no state or group has claimed responsibility, analysts believe the pattern fits a wider trend of hybrid warfare in Europe, in which drones are increasingly used to probe air defenses, gather intelligence, and unsettle governments without provoking open conflict.
For Belgium, which hosts key NATO and EU institutions, the incidents highlight the fragility of modern infrastructure to low-cost aerial systems and the difficulty of deterring anonymous actors operating in the gray zone between espionage and sabotage.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
U.S. envoys press Lebanon on Hezbollah disarmament as Israel intensifies strikes
Senior officials from the U.S. National Security Council, led by Sebastian Gorka and Rudy Atallah, arrived in Beirut on Sunday carrying a firm message for Lebanon’s leadership.
The delegation called for tangible progress on Hezbollah’s disarmament and reforms to restore the credibility of Lebanon’s armed forces and financial institutions, both weakened by years of the group’s influence.
After the meetings, Gorka posted on social media: “President Joseph Aoun is the Christian leader of the multi-confessional state of Lebanon … Today this leader is a friend and is positioned to help realize President Donald Trump’s vision for peace in the Middle East under a new, broader Abraham Accords.” His statement appeared to reflect Washington’s intent to draw Lebanon, long a geopolitical fault line between Iran and the West, into a wider normalization framework once considered impossible for Beirut.
The visit came amid rising tensions along the southern border. The Israeli Air Force reportedly struck another senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon on Monday, in the latest of several attacks since the fragile ceasefire began to unravel. Israeli officials had warned the Lebanese Army last week that unless Hezbollah started surrendering heavy weapons as required under the ceasefire terms, Israel would step up its air campaign.
The twin approach of U.S. diplomatic outreach and Israeli military pressure suggests a coordinated effort to isolate Hezbollah politically while restricting its operational capacity.
For Lebanon’s military leadership, including Aoun, the test lies in navigating these external pressures while contending with a highly fragile domestic environment marked by political division and economic collapse.
Iraqi PM discusses timetable for coalition withdrawal from Iraq
Ahead of Iraq’s national elections tomorrow, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaʽ al-Sudani told Rudaw TV in a public appearance that the continued presence of military bases belonging to the U.S.-led Global Coalition against ISIS violates Iraq’s constitution and sovereignty, arguing that the country no longer requires foreign forces to preserve stability. He said Iraq’s security institutions are capable of managing internal threats and that there is “no reason” for any internal or external actor to possess weapons, a pointed criticism of both foreign troops and domestic militias.
Sudani reaffirmed that he had agreed with coalition partners on a two-phase withdrawal plan, with the first stage to begin in September 2025. The initial phase has involved the closure of major coalition bases, including Ain al-Asad Airbase in Anbar province, followed by a complete withdrawal by September 2026.
He presented the decision as a restoration of national sovereignty and a step toward normalizing Iraq’s security arrangements through bilateral partnerships rather than continued dependence on a multilateral coalition.
His remarks reflect a broader Iraqi sentiment that the anti-Islamic State mission has run its course, while also appealing to nationalist and Shia political blocs that have long called for the departure of foreign troops. The plan, however, carries risks: a rapid drawdown could create security vacuums, embolden militias, and unsettle regional dynamics.
The constitutional justification for the withdrawal remains largely rhetorical, based on the 2020 parliamentary resolution calling for the departure of foreign forces rather than a binding legal ruling. The presence of the foreign troops is legally justified by diplomatic letters exchanged by the Iraqi and U.S. governments in 2014, and UN resolutions.
Sudani’s position reflects his determination to consolidate state authority and reaffirm Iraq’s exclusive control over the use of force, while signaling an independent foreign and security policy ahead of polls which will determine whether he gets a second term in office.
New Europe
Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases
Europe tightens rules on cash, crypto, and stablecoins
The European Union has introduced sweeping new anti–money-laundering rules covering both cash and cryptocurrency transactions.
Under the new framework, cash payments exceeding €10,000 (about $10,800) will be prohibited, while any cash transaction above €3,000 (about $3,250) will require proof of identity.
The legislation also brings digital assets under stricter scrutiny: crypto-asset service providers will have to collect and verify the identities of both senders and recipients, an effort intended to end anonymous crypto activity within the bloc.
Although some provisions remain subject to national implementation and may not take full effect until 2027, the overarching goal is to close loopholes that have allowed illicit funds to move through untraceable channels.
The rules form part of the EU’s broader campaign to align its digital-asset and financial-compliance regimes, strengthening oversight of money flows and ensuring transparency across borders.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England is preparing to restrict stablecoin holdings under its forthcoming regulatory framework. In proposals released with the Financial Conduct Authority, individuals could be limited to holding no more than £20,000 (about $25,400) in so-called “systemic stablecoins” (tokens widely used for payments and potentially large enough to endanger financial stability).
The cap would serve as a temporary safeguard until the central bank is satisfied that such assets no longer pose systemic risks.
Together, these European and British measures mark a coordinated tightening of financial controls across both traditional and digital systems, signaling a post-anonymity era in which transparency and accountability are central to modern fintech.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
U.S. air travel descends into chaos as cancellations surge
America’s aviation network is in disarray. The country’s four largest carriers (American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines) have collectively canceled more than 2,000 flights, roughly 9% of the day’s schedule, while over 7,000 others, or one-third, have been delayed.
That means more than 42% of all scheduled flights have been disrupted.
Delta has been hit hardest, canceling about 14% of its flights, while United and American have each grounded roughly 39% and 38% of their schedules respectively. Southwest has so far weathered the disruption better, canceling just 3.7% of its flights, though its large network and tightly wound schedules mean the knock-on effects could still cripple operations in the coming days.
The situation has been exacerbated by severe staffing shortages at key air traffic control centers. According to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, 18 of the 22 controllers scheduled for duty in Atlanta, the nation’s busiest aviation hub, failed to report for work yesterday, forcing airlines to slash traffic to preserve safety margins.
With nearly half the nation’s flights now canceled or delayed, the disruptions are expected to cascade further, snarling the country’s air travel system for days to come.
Trump unveils populist economic package
President Donald Trump has announced a series of populist economic measures aimed at shifting financial power from institutions to ordinary Americans.
Central to the plan is the introduction of 50-year mortgages, intended to make homeownership more attainable by spreading repayments over a longer period. The measure would lower monthly payments but substantially increase the total interest paid, leaving borrowers indebted well into old age.
Alongside the housing proposal, Trump has promised $2,000 “tariff dividend” stimulus checks for most Americans, funded by revenues from his expanded tariff regime. The idea has strong political appeal, but economists question whether tariff income can sustain such payments without widening the deficit or adding to inflation.
In a related populist shift, Trump declared that “insurance money should go to the people” and that there will be “no more money to insurance companies.” The remarks appear to signal a broader plan to cut subsidies to insurers and redirect savings to consumers, consistent with his long-standing opposition to the Affordable Care Act.
Trump has also said that tariff revenues will be used to begin paying down the U.S. national debt, now exceeding $36 trillion. Although the idea has rhetorical appeal, the tariff income thus far is too small to make more than a symbolic dent in federal liabilities, and could even slow growth if higher import costs filter through to businesses and consumers.
Taken together, these proposals form a bold but risky agenda: lowering household costs, curbing corporate privilege, and using protectionist trade policy as both fiscal and social policy (not just geopolitical leverage).
White House challenges Ofcom over free-speech curbs
The White House is preparing to confront Ofcom, the United Kingdom’s communications regulator, over accusations that it is curbing free speech under the banner of online safety.
Senior U.S. officials have voiced alarm that Ofcom’s new powers under the UK’s Online Safety Act 2023 grant the state excessive control over digital platforms and online content, especially for U.S. companies.
The law gives the regulator sweeping authority to police internet speech, impose fines on non-compliant firms, and even block access to websites. Washington argues that such measures threaten freedom of expression and set a troubling precedent for regulating U.S. technology companies abroad.
The U.S. position appears shaped by both principle and pragmatism: the First Amendment remains a cornerstone of American political culture, but there are also concerns that such rules could constrain the operational freedom of U.S. firms worldwide.
Lord Michael Grade, Ofcom’s chairman, rejected claims that the regulator’s approach is “Orwellian,” insisting that its mandate is to protect users from serious harm such as terrorism, child exploitation, and online abuse rather than to silence dissent or political opposition.
Grade cited Ofcom’s record of restraint, noting that of roughly 10,000 pieces of television and radio content reviewed in 2024, only 33 were deemed in breach of standards.
The confrontation risks becoming a new point of friction in U.S.–UK relations, exposing a widening transatlantic divide over how to balance freedom of expression with public safety online. The outcome of this dispute could shape the future of open discourse in the democratic world.
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What happened today:
1444 - Battle of Varna: Ottomans defeat the Crusader army. 1775 - Continental Congress creates the U.S. Marine Corps. 1918 - German Kaiser Wilhelm II flees to the Netherlands. 1918 - Council of the People’s Deputies forms Germany’s provisional government. 1938 - Kristallnacht pogrom across Nazi Germany and Austria. 1945 - Battle of Surabaya escalates; commemorated as Indonesia’s Heroes’ Day. 1980 - Solidarity trade union officially registered in Poland. 1982 - Leonid Brezhnev dies, triggering a Soviet leadership transition. 2001 - WTO approves China’s accession at the Doha ministerial. 2020 - Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire takes effect.



