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What you need to know

Downing Street scrambles to defend Keir Starmer amid budget turmoil

Downing Street has reportedly launched a defensive campaign to protect Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid warnings that disgruntled Labour MPs are preparing to move against him following release of the new Budget.

Senior figures inside No 10 claim they were informed that Health Secretary Wes Streeting had assembled as many as fifty frontbenchers ready to resign if the Budget performs poorly and Starmer refuses to step aside.

By Tuesday night, the mood inside government circles was one of near-chaos. Rumors of plots circulated so persistently that Streeting’s spokesman issued an on-the-record statement rejecting suggestions of a leadership challenge. The situation veered toward the absurd when Kitty Ussher, a former Labour Treasury minister now serving as a senior director at Barclays, was invited by Downing Street officials to brief Labour special advisers. In her presentation, Ussher reportedly warned that government bond prices had fallen because investors feared Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, might be forced out. Her message was blunt: party loyalty is essential, or gilt yields will rise and borrowing costs will surge.

Within hours, Downing Street aides were briefing that a faction of “plotters” was moving against Starmer and Reeves, and that the prime minister would “fight them to the death.” Whether this reflects genuine intelligence of an imminent Streeting-led coup or an attempt to shore up Starmer’s authority remains unclear. What is certain is that Labour’s internal tensions are intensifying just as the government prepares to deliver a politically sensitive, tax-raising Budget.

Market confidence in the government is already fragile, and even the suggestion of a leadership crisis risks pushing gilt prices lower and yields higher. If the bond markets react negatively today, it will bode ill for Reeves, whose credibility rests on convincing investors that Labour can pair fiscal restraint with political stability.

For now, Downing Street’s operation to defend Starmer appears as much about reassuring markets as quelling dissent, a reminder that, in contemporary British politics, the confidence of bond traders can prove as decisive as the loyalty of backbenchers.

America First

USS Ford redeployment heightens tensions in the Caribbean

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean after sailing from the Mediterranean, marking a major redeployment of U.S. naval power in the region.

Officially, the Pentagon describes the move as part of a campaign against transnational criminal organizations and narco-terrorism.

But the scale of the deployment, which includes destroyers, combat aircraft, and support vessels, indicates a mission extending beyond routine counternarcotics patrols.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro responded sharply, declaring the “militarization of the country by land, sea, and air” and ordering a nationwide mobilization of armed forces and millions of militia members. Maduro depicts the U.S. operation as a prelude to aggression or an attempt at regime change disguised as a drug-war initiative.

The situation has grown more complex following reports, confirmed by The Times after initial coverage by CNN, that Britain’s intelligence agencies and military have suspended intelligence sharing with the U.S. on suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean. British officials cited fears of being drawn into what they described as “extrajudicial killings” of criminal suspects by U.S. forces. The pause represents an unusual rupture in trans-Atlantic intelligence cooperation.

The convergence of U.S. naval muscle, Venezuelan mobilization, and allied dissent has created a combustible atmosphere in the Caribbean, where counternarcotics operations risk evolving into a broader confrontation with unpredictable regional consequences.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Russia’s economy faces twin strains of fiscal weakness and digital control

Russia’s federal budget revenues fell by 12 percent year-on-year in October, signaling deepening fiscal strain in the Kremlin’s wartime economy. Total receipts for the month reached ₽2.986 trillion (about $32.4 billion), with oil and gas revenues plunging by 27 percent to ₽889 billion (about $9.6 billion), while non-oil revenues slipped by 4 percent to ₽2.096 trillion (about $22.8 billion). The monthly deficit stood at ₽403 billion (about $4.4 billion), slightly lower than the same period last year but still substantial.

The downturn reflects weaker global energy prices, a stronger ruble that reduces the domestic value of dollar-denominated exports, and tightening Western sanctions that continue to hamper Russian energy firms.

Meanwhile, inflation hovering around 8 percent is eroding real tax receipts and household purchasing power, while war-related expenditure and social transfers remain elevated. The result is a widening gap between declining revenues and rising costs; a fiscal squeeze that could weaken Russia’s capacity to sustain both military and welfare commitments.

The financial strain coincides with a new wave of mobile-internet shutdowns across the country. In St Petersburg, a city of 5.6 million, residents reported that websites, banking services, delivery platforms, and taxi apps had abruptly stopped working, leaving only the state-run Gosuslugi portal accessible. Similar outages were reported in Sochi, Tula, Voronezh, Ryazan, Krasnodar, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, and Ufa. Telecom operators attributed the disruptions to unspecified “security measures,” though no official warnings of drone activity were issued. Analysts believe the shutdowns may reflect both anti-drone precautions and the state’s expanding control over digital communications, with considerable economic fallout. Each hour of disruption is estimated to cost regional economies hundreds of millions of rubles by crippling payment systems, logistics, and transport networks.

Together, the fiscal downturn and network outages portray a Russia under intensifying domestic pressure. The erosion of oil revenue deprives the state of its main financial cushion just as inflation accelerates and wartime spending grows. At the same time, recurring communication blackouts expose a system tightening its grip on information at the expense of productivity.

The birthplace of civilization

Houthis suspend attacks on Israeli shipping but keep threat alive

Yemen’s Houthi movement announced on 11 November that it had suspended all maritime operations against Israel and lifted its naval blockade of Israeli ports, signaling a temporary halt to one of the region’s most disruptive campaigns against international shipping. The decision was conveyed in a letter to Hamas’s military wing, Kata’ib al-Qassam, by the group’s newly appointed Chief of Staff, Yousef Hassan al-Madani, who took office after his predecessor, Mohammed al-Ghamari, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

In the letter, al-Madani reaffirmed the Houthis’ solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian cause but warned that the suspension was conditional. “We are closely monitoring developments,” the message stated. “If the enemy resumes its aggression against Gaza, we will return to our military operations deep within the Zionist entity, and we will reinstate the ban on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas.”

The declaration represents a notable, though tentative, easing of the threat to vessels previously targeted for supposed links to Israeli ports or trade routes. It also highlights the Houthis’ continued alignment with Iran’s regional strategy, which casts them as a key component of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Even so, the Houthis retain the ability to launch missile, drone, and unmanned surface vessel strikes against commercial and military targets. Their pattern of escalation tends to track developments in Gaza, meaning that any breakdown in the current ceasefire could swiftly revive maritime hostilities. Despite the pause, the group’s asymmetric warfare capabilities, and its capacity to disrupt global trade through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, remain a persistent concern for regional and international security.

Saudi-led coalition shells Yemeni border villages amid fragile ceasefire

Saudi-led coalition forces have shelled border villages in the Shada district of western Saada province, according to local reports. Artillery fire struck civilian settlements and farmland along the Yemeni–Saudi frontier, damaging homes and forcing residents to flee several hamlets.

Although no casualties have been confirmed, the attacks reflect continuing ceasefire violations despite United Nations–mediated efforts to preserve calm.

Saada, a long-standing stronghold of the Houthi movement, has been a flashpoint throughout the conflict. While large-scale air operations have largely subsided under the current truce, cross-border shelling and sniper fire from Saudi positions remain frequent. Such incidents risk undermining diplomatic initiatives led by Oman and the UN aimed at converting the fragile ceasefire into a durable peace agreement.

Iran faces twin crises of labor unrest and water scarcity

Roughly fifteen thousand Iranian oil and gas workers have launched one of the largest coordinated labor actions in years, striking at the economically crucial South Pars field in Bushehr Province.

South Pars, which provides most of Iran’s natural gas and supports much of its electricity generation and petrochemical production, has become a focal point for mounting economic discontent. The workers, many employed through intermediary contractors, have walked off the job to protest stagnant wages, poor working conditions, and unfulfilled benefits. Their anger has been compounded by years of inflation, sanctions, and official neglect, leaving one of the regime’s most vital industries exposed to serious disruption. A prolonged strike could restrict domestic energy supply, curtail petrochemical exports, and further undermine public confidence in the authorities’ management of the economy.

At the same time, Tehran is confronting an unprecedented water crisis. Reservoirs feeding the capital (including Lar, Latyan, and Amir Kabir) have fallen to record-low levels after years of drought and mismanagement. Officials warn that supplies could run dry within weeks, prompting rationing and even discussion of large-scale evacuations. Five consecutive dry years, soaring summer temperatures, and rampant groundwater extraction, coupled with inefficient irrigation and leaky infrastructure, have pushed the city to the brink.

Together, the twin crises (labor unrest in the energy sector and water scarcity in the capital) reveal Iran’s deep structural fragility. Both arise from the same underlying pressures: economic sanctions, climatic stress, institutional decay, and chronic underinvestment. Energy production depends on stable labor and infrastructure; water distribution depends on reliable power. Disruption in one intensifies strain in the other, creating a cycle of scarcity and discontent. For the Iranian government, the convergence of these pressures threatens not only industrial output but also political stability, as the essential pillars of modern life, power, water, and wages, begin to buckle under the weight of mismanagement and exhaustion.

Move fast and break things

 House returns to end record U.S. government shutdown

Members of the U.S. House of Representatives have begun returning to Washington, D.C., to vote on a bill intended to end the record 42-day government shutdown.

The Senate approved the bipartisan measure on 10 November 2025 by a vote of 60–40, providing temporary funding for most federal agencies until 30 January 2026 and full-year funding for select programs, including food assistance under SNAP.

The House, which had been adjourned since 19 September, was recalled by Speaker Mike Johnson for what is expected to be a rapid vote. Both Republican and Democratic leaders have expressed cautious confidence that the bill will pass.

If approved and signed by President Donald Trump, as he has indicated he will, the longest shutdown in U.S. history could end within hours.

The prolonged standoff has taken a heavy toll. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees remain unpaid, essential services have been disrupted, and widespread transport delays have snarled air travel across the country.

The stopgap measure merely postpones deeper disputes, particularly over health-care subsidies that Democrats had sought to include.

Several progressive lawmakers have criticized the deal for omitting an extension of Affordable Care Act premium credits, while conservatives have framed the compromise as a pragmatic step to restore basic government functions.

Polls show that about half of Americans blame Republicans for the impasse, with 43 percent pointing to Democrats.

Even if the bill passes, the reprieve will be temporary. With funding due to lapse again at the end of January, Congress faces the likelihood of another fiscal confrontation early next year.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Russia says ready to resume talks with Ukraine in Istanbul

Russia has announced its readiness to resume peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Moscow said its negotiating team is prepared to meet and that “the ball is in Ukraine’s court,” though no date has been set.

The statement follows renewed mediation efforts by Türkiye, which has maintained dialogue with both sides throughout the war.

Türkiye, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has sought to position itself as a neutral broker between Moscow and Kyiv, hosting several rounds of negotiations since the conflict began.

The first major talks took place in Antalya and later in Istanbul in March 2022, when Ukraine offered to adopt a position of neutrality in exchange for security guarantees, but refused to concede any territory. Those early efforts collapsed after Russia intensified its military campaign.

Talks resumed briefly in May and June 2025, when delegations met again in Istanbul and agreed in principle to a large prisoner exchange. The discussions failed to produce a ceasefire, and a short, largely symbolic meeting followed in July.

Russia’s renewed call for talks appears more a gesture of diplomatic maneuvering than a sign of real compromise. With both sides deeply entrenched, the prospects for meaningful progress remain slim.

For Türkiye, any resumption of dialogue reinforces its image as a regional mediator and a power able to engage both East and West. For Russia and Ukraine, however, Istanbul remains more a stage for posturing than a platform for peace.

Massive breach exposes China’s state-linked cyber operations

China’s largest cybersecurity firm, Knownsec, has reportedly suffered a major breach in what appears to be one of the most consequential exposures of state-linked cyber espionage to date.

The stolen cache, comprising more than 12,000 internal documents, reveals extensive details of China’s offensive and defensive cyber infrastructure, including operational manuals, source code for remote-access tools, and malware targeting multiple operating systems. The leak also includes global target lists covering more than twenty countries, among them Japan, Vietnam, and India, and a spreadsheet enumerating eighty foreign organizations that had been compromised.

Among the more unusual disclosures is documentation of a hardware-based espionage device resembling a power bank, designed to look like a standard charging unit while secretly exfiltrating data. Knownsec, a central player in China’s digital-security industry, has long operated at the blurred intersection of defense and offense, providing services to both private clients and state agencies. If confirmed, the breach highlights the deep intertwining of China’s commercial cybersecurity sector with its state intelligence apparatus.

The implications are significant. For targeted countries such as India, Japan, and South Korea, the revelations provide rare insight into China’s cyber priorities and may enable security services to fortify defenses against known toolkits.

The leak illustrates how the boundary between commercial cybersecurity and state espionage has largely vanished, turning even established security contractors into potential conduits of compromise.

Although full verification of the documents is pending, the episode sheds light on the global risks posed by dual-use cyber firms and the expanding shadow war over data and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

Bomb blasts in Dhaka raise fears of regional extremist resurgence

Three high-intensity explosions struck passenger buses in Dhaka, Bangladesh, killing at least two people and injuring more than a dozen. The blasts, which occurred on busy commuter routes in the Mirpur and Sutrapur districts, appeared designed to inflict mass disruption rather than target symbolic or political sites.

The attacks followed similar incidents in India and Pakistan, prompting concerns of a coordinated regional escalation in extremist violence.

No group has claimed responsibility.

In response, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police tightened security across the capital, deploying additional patrols, expanding surveillance, and conducting drills at key locations.

Authorities have also banned public gatherings in central districts and restricted major events and religious celebrations. Reports suggest that Christmas festivities and other mass gatherings have been cancelled nationwide as a precaution.

The government’s sweeping security measures reflect the gravity of the perceived threat but have cast a shadow over civic and religious life. The targeting of soft civilian sites (public buses) marks a troubling shift in tactics.

If these attacks are part of a wider cross-border pattern, they may signal a new phase of instability in South Asia, with likely far-reaching consequences.

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