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UN Security Council backs Gaza plan and creates international mandate

The U.N. Security Council has approved the U.S.-led Gaza resolution by a vote of 13–0, with two abstentions, producing one of the most decisive diplomatic outcomes on the conflict in recent years.

The measure, described by Washington as the most comprehensive framework for Gaza’s future since the 1990s, sets out plans for what it calls a “demilitarized, deradicalized, and self-governing” territory.

It also formally endorses President Donald Trump’s twenty-point Plan for Peace, which the U.S. argues is the only arrangement capable of preventing a return to war.

American diplomats said the resolution’s passage prevents a political vacuum that could reignite large-scale fighting and instead creates a mechanism intended to break the long-running cycle of violence. Washington has pledged to deepen coordination with Security Council members, regional governments, and Israeli and Palestinian representatives to support the transition.

Much of the early commentary has focused on what the vote means for Palestinian political aspirations. Some suggest the resolution could be a step on the path toward a Palestinian state.

However, we prefer to focus on a different aspect: the creation of an international mandate known as the Board of Peace, which will temporarily administer Gaza.

Officials involved in the process say the two-year timeline resembles earlier transitional arrangements, such as the five-year interim period envisioned under the 1993 Oslo accords or the four-year presidential term to which Mahmoud Abbas was elected in 2005. They add that a Palestinian state is not excluded, although the resolution does not affirm statehood or define a timetable for it.

In a statement on Truth Social, President Donald J. Trump congratulated the world on the outcome of the vote, highlighting the creation of the Board of Peace, which he will chair. He said the body would include “the most powerful and respected Leaders throughout the World,” and thanked both the Security Council and the wider group of countries that supported the initiative. He added that the membership of the Board, along with additional announcements tied to the plan, would be detailed in the coming weeks.

America First

U.S. signals possible deployment of ground troops to Venezuela

President Donald Trump has said he does not rule out deploying U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela, a remark that further raises the stakes in an already fraught confrontation with Nicolás Maduro’s government.

The statement comes days before the U.S. is due to designate the Venezuelan network known as the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on 24 November, a step that military and legal analysts say could give Washington a counterterrorism rationale for armed action inside Venezuela.

The Trump administration argues that Maduro and senior figures in his security apparatus are directly tied to the cartel, a claim that would cast the Venezuelan state as supporting terrorism rather than merely participating in narcotics trafficking.

The Pentagon has already moved substantial force into the region, with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group now positioned in the Caribbean, bringing extensive air, sea, and land attack capabilities.

The combination of legal escalation, military deployment, and Trump’s refusal to rule out ground forces suggests that Washington is preparing a wide spectrum of coercive options while keeping the door open to negotiation.

For Venezuela’s leadership, the message is clear: engage with Washington on U.S. terms, or risk the prospect of direct military action in the near future.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Poland warns of Russian threat after railway blasts

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has convened an emergency meeting of the national security committee after a series of explosions damaged key railway infrastructure in eastern Poland. Tusk confirmed that an explosive device detonated near the village of Mika, destroying part of the line that links Warsaw and Lublin, a corridor used heavily for domestic transport and military logistics.

Although investigators have not released full forensic findings, senior officials are pointing to the likelihood of Russian involvement. The government said that “everything points to Russian intelligence commissioning railway sabotage,” a claim consistent with past warnings about Moscow’s use of covert operations to disrupt NATO states’ infrastructure.

The rhetoric from Poland’s military leadership has been strong. General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff, told Polish media that “an armed attack on Poland is being prepared. The enemy has begun preparations for war.” His remarks reflect mounting concern within Warsaw that the incidents form part of a wider campaign designed to probe Polish vulnerabilities, create psychological pressure, or test NATO’s response thresholds.

The government has increased patrols along critical infrastructure routes and is expected to announce additional protective measures after the national security committee meets.

For Poland’s allies, the episode will heighten scrutiny of hybrid threats in Eastern Europe and raise questions about the resilience of transport links that support NATO’s eastern flank.

Russian oil price collapse deepens fiscal strain

The price of Russian crude has continued its sharp decline, falling to roughly $36.61 per barrel, a level that is now less than half the prevailing international benchmark for oil.

The latest drop follows a new round of U.S. sanctions, which target not only Russian energy firms but also the logistics networks that move crude through so-called “shadow fleets.”

The Kremlin’s willingness to sell at what amounts to dumping prices reflects a strategic calculation. Preserving cash flow, even at heavily reduced margins, appears to take precedence over defending headline price levels. Oil remains Russia’s most important source of foreign currency, and the authorities seem prepared to sacrifice long-term revenue quality in order to maintain short-term liquidity.

Before the war, analysts generally estimated that Russia required oil prices of about $70 per barrel to balance its federal budget. That threshold already assumed stable production and export volumes. The current position is considerably weaker. Ukrainian long-range strikes on oil terminals and port facilities have reduced Russia’s export capacity and disrupted its supply chain, which means Moscow is now earning less on fewer barrels. The combination of falling volumes and steep discounts has created a marked fiscal squeeze.

If prices remain at current levels, Russia will face increasing pressure on budget expenditures, including defense spending, regional transfers, and social programs. Moscow has already begun drawing more heavily on its sovereign wealth fund, and the government may be forced either to impose additional taxes on domestic energy companies or cut spending elsewhere. Sustained prices in the $30–40 range would likely hasten these adjustments and may constrain Russia’s ability to finance the war in the medium term.

The birthplace of civilization

U.S. halts visit by Lebanese army chief amid frustration over Hezbollah

The United States has abruptly canceled the planned visit of Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal to Washington, after senior officials voiced growing frustration with what they describe as the Lebanese Army’s unwillingness to act against Hezbollah despite a formal directive from Beirut to assert state authority in the south.

According to U.S. officials, the cancellation covers all scheduled meetings in Washington, D.C., including planned discussions at the Pentagon and the State Department. The Lebanese embassy in Washington was also forced to cancel a reception that had been arranged in Haykal’s honor. The across-the-board nature of the decision suggests the move was intended as a deliberate, and very blunt, diplomatic broadside.

The Lebanese Army responded with a statement attributing instability in southern Lebanon to Israeli military activity, avoiding any reference to Hezbollah or the government’s stated objective of reasserting control in areas where Hezbollah maintains an armed presence.

The Trump administration has become increasingly direct in its assessments of the Lebanese government and its security apparatus, arguing that American assistance cannot continue without clear evidence that the army is prepared to implement state policy rather than accommodate Hezbollah’s parallel authority.

For Lebanon, the episode adds to a growing list of diplomatic strains as the country faces overlapping political, economic, and security crises. Lebanon does not want war with Israel again, and it does not want a war with Hezbollah. How it threads that needle is hard to see at this stage.

U.S. signals readiness to sell F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia

President Donald Trump announced that the United States intends to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a move that would mark a significant shift in American defense policy in the Middle East. Speaking on 17 November, Trump said “we’ll be selling F-35s,” signaling Washington’s willingness to approve Riyadh’s longstanding request for up to 48 of the stealth aircraft.

The announcement came on the eve of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington, suggesting that the deal is being used as a diplomatic tool to deepen ties between the two governments.

If completed, the sale would break with decades of precedent in which Israel was the only state in the region allowed to operate the F-35, raising questions about the U.S. commitment to maintaining Israel’s legally mandated “qualitative military edge.”

Although the White House appears keen to advance the transaction, it would still require congressional approval, a process that is likely to rekindle debates over Saudi Arabia’s human-rights record, its ties to China, and the risks associated with sensitive technology transfer.

Trump’s declaration signals political intent, but the deal remains at a very early stage and would need to navigate export-control rules and detailed negotiations over terms, conditions, and delivery schedules.

For Saudi Arabia, acquiring the F-35 would significantly enhance its air-combat capabilities and strengthen its deterrence posture against Iran.

For the United States, it would reinforce a deepening strategic partnership with one of its principal regional allies. But Congress, and Israel, will have a say in this.

Bottom line, the White House and the Royal Court will be expecting to walk away from this visit with some tangible deals in the pipeline, and this may be the first of several statements of this type in the next few days. The devil, however, will be in the details, and any transfer of F-35s to Riyadh is likely to be a long term project, fraught with difficulties and opposition from a wide range of sources.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Doha agreement offers rare opening in Congo conflict

The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 militia have signed a new peace framework in Qatar, an accord aimed at halting one of Africa’s most destructive and long-running conflicts.

The agreement, reached in Doha on Saturday, seeks to end the fighting that has destabilized eastern Congo, displaced more than a million people and drawn in regional powers whose rivalries have deepened the violence.

Although earlier cease-fire attempts have collapsed, the new framework contains clearer security guarantees, commitments to withdraw forces from key towns and provisions for reintegrating fighters, measures that mediators hope will give the deal greater durability.

The accord is a notable diplomatic success for Qatar, which has worked to establish itself as a broker in intractable conflicts from Afghanistan to the Horn of Africa. It is also a significant outcome for President Donald Trump’s Africa envoy, Massad Boulos, who has been working quietly with both sides to shepherd the process toward agreement.

Even so, the path ahead is uncertain. The M23 movement retains substantial combat capability, and its relationship with Rwanda continues to complicate efforts to enforce past agreements. Kinshasa’s forces remain stretched across multiple fronts, and eastern Congo’s tangled landscape of armed groups, local grievances and competing economic interests has repeatedly made implementation difficult. Without sustained pressure on external actors, credible monitoring mechanisms and meaningful disarmament, the accord could meet the same fate as earlier peace efforts.

Despite these risks, the Doha Framework for Peace represents the most promising diplomatic opening in years. If implemented effectively, it could ease one of the world’s most acute humanitarian emergencies and shift the balance of regional politics in Central and East Africa.

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