The AI economy is booming, and smart entrepreneurs are already profiting. Subscribe to Mindstream and get instant access to 200+ proven strategies to monetize AI tools like ChatGPT, Midjourney, and more. From content creation to automation services, discover actionable ways to build your AI-powered income. No coding required, just practical strategies that work.

Subscribe to Get Your Free Guide

What you need to know

Unconfirmed reports suggest U.S. weighing new Russia–Ukraine peace framework

Unconfirmed media reports claim that President Donald J. Trump has approved a previously discussed 28-point plan for a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement, a proposal that a senior U.S. official says includes security guarantees for “both sides.” Although the administration has not verified the details, the alleged framework represents the most far-reaching peace outline attributed to Washington since the invasion began.

According to the reports, the proposal would require Ukraine to drastically reduce the size of its armed forces, and hand over the remaining areas of Donetsk still held by Kyiv. Several conditions also appear aimed at reshaping Ukraine’s political and cultural landscape, including recognizing Russian as an official state language and granting formal status to the Russian Orthodox Church.

Early indications suggest the draft was shaped through back-channel talks involving Steve Witkoff, the administration’s special envoy, in discussions with President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials.

European leaders have condemned the concept behind the proposal, arguing that it rewards territorial aggression and undermines the principles of European security. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who appears not to have been directly involved, continues to advocate for “good faith” negotiations without pre-emptive concessions.

In a potentially related development, rumors in Washington suggest that Keith Kellogg, the U.S. envoy to Ukraine, has signaled privately that he intends to step down in January. Associates say his frustration stems from what he views as a crowded policy environment and a perception that some senior officials remain reluctant to exert stronger pressure on Moscow. If confirmed, his departure would add further uncertainty to an already confused diplomatic landscape.

And Ukraine has intensified its air strikes on Russian infrastructure as Moscow continues its own campaign against Ukrainian energy and urban targets, marking a renewed phase of the war in which both sides appear increasingly willing to attack deep behind the front line. In the latest incident, a swarm of unidentified drones struck Russia’s Kursk region overnight, leaving around 16,000 residents without electricity. The regional governor said several electrical substations near the Ukrainian border had been hit, triggering widespread blackouts across three districts and highlighting the vulnerability of Russia’s regional grid to low-cost, long-range drone attacks.

The strike follows a pattern of Ukrainian attempts to disrupt Russian logistics, energy distribution, and military infrastructure well inside Russian territory, part of a strategy aimed at stretching Moscow’s air-defense network and raising the domestic cost of the war.

Russia, for its part, has intensified its bombardment of Ukrainian electricity infrastructure in recent weeks, launching salvoes of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones against power plants and substations across multiple regions, including major western cities. The reciprocal escalation suggests both governments are preparing for a winter of increased pressure on civilian infrastructure, with the aim of weakening the other side’s resilience and complicating military operations.

For Ukraine, expanding the geographical scope of strikes is also intended to demonstrate capability and resolve at a moment when Western support is under political strain.

With neither side showing interest in de-escalation, the conflict’s infrastructure war is likely to deepen, raising humanitarian risks as temperatures drop and energy grids on both sides come under mounting stress.

Move fast and break things

President Donald J. Trump signs law mandating swift release of Epstein files

President Donald J. Trump has announced that he has formally signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405), a measure that requires the Justice Department to release the bulk of its records related to the case of convicted sex offender and trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Aside from a narrow set of exceptions for material that could compromise national security or an active investigation, the department now has thirty days to disclose the files.

The legislation, passed with broad bipartisan support, reflects a growing appetite in Congress for greater clarity around a case that has long been shrouded in speculation, legal secrecy, and allegations of institutional failure. The Act imposes strict oversight on any redactions the department may seek to apply, including mandatory review by the congressional Oversight Committee and criminal penalties if officials withhold information to conceal wrongdoing.

For the White House, the signing marks an attempt to position the administration on the side of transparency in a scandal that has implicated powerful figures across politics, finance, and academia. For federal investigators, it begins a rapid countdown toward the most substantial public release of Epstein-related documents to date.

House moves to scrap contentious legal shield for Senators

The U.S. House of Representatives voted unanimously on Wednesday night to repeal a controversial provision in the government-funding law that allowed Senators to sue the Justice Department for up to $500,000 if their phone records were seized without their knowledge. The measure, slipped into the appropriations package that lifted the shutdown, had drawn bipartisan criticism for granting lawmakers a level of legal protection unavailable to ordinary citizens.

The provision came under intense scrutiny after Senate Republicans released FBI documents connected to “Arctic Frost,” an investigation into the 2020 election that involved the seizure of communications data from several congressional offices. Critics argued that the clause created a perverse incentive structure: it effectively penalized federal investigators for pursuing legitimate inquiries when those inquiries happened to intersect with the communications of sitting Senators. Legal analysts also noted that the clause risked undermining ongoing oversight and counterintelligence work by deterring the Justice Department from seeking warrants involving legislators, even when justified by probable cause.

The House’s unanimous repeal reflects frustration across the political spectrum with an arrangement viewed as both self-serving and constitutionally dubious.

The bill now heads to the Senate, where leaders have signaled that they will move quickly to reverse the provision and reassert that lawmakers do not sit above the standards applied to the public.

The episode also underscores a wider tension between congressional privilege and the demands of federal law enforcement at a moment when investigations into political interference, election security, and foreign influence remain politically charged.

President Trump to host New York mayor-elect Mamdani at the White House

President Donald J. Trump has announced that he will meet New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the White House on Friday, an encounter that is already drawing attention for its political symbolism as well as its policy implications.

Mamdani, a prominent figure on the progressive left, won the New York mayoral race on a platform centered on housing reform, expanded public services, and police restructuring. His planned visit to Washington is being interpreted as an early test of how a left-leaning city government and a conservative White House intend to manage relations on issues where their priorities diverge sharply.

For Mamdani, the meeting provides a national platform at a moment when he is assembling his incoming team and shaping expectations for his first months in office.

The encounter may also carry electoral significance, given New York’s prominence and the possibility that federal–city tensions could feature in broader political debates.

While neither side has previewed the agenda, the meeting is likely to serve as an early barometer of whether constructive engagement is possible despite pronounced ideological differences.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

U.S. steps up military presence in South China Sea as tensions flare

Within the past two weeks, the United States has deployed supersonic bombers and the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group to the South China Sea, signaling Washington’s growing concern as tensions between Manila and Beijing sharpen over Scarborough Shoal.

The strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, has been conducting operations in waters close to contested maritime features, offering a conspicuous display of U.S. naval power.

The escalation follows a series of confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels around the shoal, where Beijing has tightened its blockade and intensified coercive tactics, including the use of water cannons.

Manila, which regards the area as part of its exclusive economic zone, accuses China of attempting to restrict access to a traditional fishing ground and of ignoring the 2016 arbitration ruling that rejected Beijing’s expansive territorial claims.

For the United States, the deployments are intended to steady a treaty ally under pressure, reinforce freedom-of-navigation principles, and deter further Chinese escalation.

The presence of a U.S. carrier group and long-range bombers complicates Beijing’s calculus and increases the risks associated with its incremental advances. The episode illustrates the South China Sea’s role as one of the world’s most volatile maritime flashpoints, where tactical decisions by rival powers can carry immediate geopolitical consequences.

U.S. clears new precision-strike weapons package for Japan

The U.S. State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Japan of a broad suite of precision-guided glide munitions valued at up to $82 million, the latest in a series of transfers designed to strengthen Tokyo’s long-range strike capabilities.

The proposed package includes 120 Small Diameter Bomb Increment I munitions, 28 Small Diameter Bomb Increment II (StormBreaker) glide bombs, 74 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) tail-kit assemblies of various types, 75 Mark 80 Series general-purpose bombs, and a range of associated equipment, training, and support services. Raytheon and Boeing would serve as the prime contractors.

The StormBreaker, which can engage moving targets in poor weather and through obscurants, represents one of the most advanced air-launched munitions in U.S. service. Alongside the SDB I and JDAM kits, the package reflects Washington’s broader effort to enhance Japan’s capacity for precision strike at a time when regional security concerns remain acute. Tokyo has been expanding its stockpile of standoff weapons and modernizing its air forces in response to China’s military buildup and North Korea’s frequent missile tests.

The State Department noted that the $82 million estimate reflects the highest possible quantity and cost based on Japan’s initial request, and that the final value will be lower once requirements, budget authorizations, and formal sales agreements are concluded. The transaction, once finalized, would further integrate U.S. and Japanese air-combat systems and reinforce the alliance’s ability to deter coercion across the Indo-Pacific.

U.S. clears precision-guided artillery sale to India

The U.S. State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to India involving 219 M982A1 Excalibur 155mm GPS/INS-guided artillery shells, along with associated equipment, support, and training, at an estimated value of $47 million.

The Excalibur, which costs roughly $90,000 per round, is one of the most accurate artillery projectiles in U.S. service. It has been used extensively in Iraq, Afghanistan, and more recently in Ukraine, where its ability to strike targets with meter-level precision has made it a highly valued capability.

Raytheon would serve as the prime contractor. The deal forms part of a broader U.S. effort to deepen defense ties with India as Washington seeks to counterbalance China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.

The acquisition would enhance India’s long-range precision-fire capabilities at a time when India continues to modernize its artillery and improve interoperability with Western systems. It also reflects India’s gradual shift away from reliance on legacy Russian/Soviet platforms, a diversification that U.S. officials have encouraged.

If Congress approves the sale, the transfer would mark another incremental step in the expanding U.S.–India security partnership, underscoring the strategic importance both sides now place on high-technology cooperation and shared deterrence in the region.

The birthplace of civilization

U.S. and Saudi Arabia move to secure rare earth supply chains

Rare earths producer MP Materials is joining forces with the U.S. military and Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining firm, Maaden, to build a rare earth refinery in the kingdom, a project that reflects Washington’s and Riyadh’s shared ambition to lessen dependence on Chinese processing. The facility will supply both countries’ manufacturing and defense sectors with strategically vital minerals used in precision-guided munitions, advanced radar systems, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and a wide range of high-technology components.

The partnership marks a further step in America’s effort to rebuild a domestic and allied rare earth supply chain, a priority that has grown more urgent as geopolitical competition with Beijing intensifies.

Although MP Materials operates one of the only large rare earth mines in North America, downstream processing capacity remains limited. Locating a refinery in Saudi Arabia allows Washington to diversify risk, expand capacity, and place critical infrastructure in the hands of a close security partner.

The venture aligns with Riyadh’s strategy to develop a mining sector capable of supporting economic diversification and high-value industrial production. Maaden aims to position the kingdom as a processing hub for minerals essential to global energy-transition technologies.

The refinery also dovetails with the deepening U.S.–Saudi strategic relationship, which now spans defense cooperation, artificial intelligence, and industrial supply-chain resilience. As both countries seek to reduce exposure to Chinese dominance in rare earth refining, the partnership signals a tightening convergence of economic and security interests in one of the world’s most sensitive commodity sectors.

Israel launches strikes in Gaza and southern Lebanon

After Hamas militants opened fire on Israeli soldiers operating in Gaza on Wednesday, the Israeli Air Force carried out a series of retaliatory airstrikes targeting a meeting of senior Hamas leaders. Israeli officials said the strikes were intended to disrupt command networks and deter further attacks as fighting in the enclave continues to fluctuate between low-level clashes and sudden escalations.

Military operations quickly continued across Israel’s northern frontier in Lebanon. Following the Gaza operation, the Israeli Air Force issued evacuation orders for several towns in southern Lebanon before launching dozens of strikes against sites linked to Hezbollah. The targets included military infrastructure in Beit Lif and suspected weapons depots in Deir Kifa, Shehour, Tayr Felsay, and Aynata. Lebanese media reported extensive damage in multiple villages, reflecting what residents described as one of the most intense waves of Israeli strikes in recent weeks.

Israeli commanders argue that Hezbollah’s entrenched presence in southern Lebanon poses a strategic threat that cannot be separated from developments in Gaza. For Lebanon, the renewed bombardment risks further destabilizing a nation already strained by political paralysis, economic collapse, and the spillover effects of the wider regional conflict.

The ultimate complex system

Japan’s 40-year yield breaks records, rattling global markets

Japan’s 40-year government bond yield has surged to 3.7 percent, up from 3.36 percent yesterday, marking the highest level in the country’s history.

The sharp move is the latest sign that Japan’s long era of ultra-low interest rates is drawing to a close.

For a country that has spent decades battling deflation, the acceleration in long-term yields is striking enough.

For the global economy, the implications are far more far-reaching.

As discussed yesterday, Japan sits at the heart of the global “carry trade,” a strategy in which investors borrow cheaply in yen and deploy that capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. The model worked for years because Japanese rates remained anchored near zero, creating predictable spreads and a ready supply of low-cost funding. A sustained rise in Japanese long-term yields threatens to upend that system. As borrowing costs in yen climb and global yield differentials narrow, carry positions become less profitable and more exposed to currency volatility.

The shift risks triggering a broader repricing across world markets. Japanese institutional investors, long major holders of foreign bonds, may begin repatriating capital as domestic yields become more attractive. Emerging-market borrowers, who benefited from years of ample yen-funded liquidity, could face tighter financing conditions.

And global fixed-income markets, already adjusting to higher rates in Europe and the U.S., must now contend with the end of Japan’s role as the world’s perpetual low-rate anchor.

The sudden spike in the 40-year yield is therefore not simply a domestic phenomenon; it is a signal that a cornerstone of global financial stability is beginning to shift.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Trump outlines new Quad effort to address Sudan’s civil war

Following a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which both leaders expressed a desire to help end the war in Sudan, President Donald J. Trump announced that the Quad (the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) will begin coordinating a renewed diplomatic push to address the conflict that has ravaged the country since April 2023.

The war, fought chiefly between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces, has displaced millions, devastated Khartoum, and triggered a humanitarian crisis stretching from Darfur to the Red Sea coast.

Trump said the four governments would work together to “fix the problem,” a phrase that suggests a more hands-on approach than previous international mediation efforts, which faltered as regional powers backed rival factions on the ground.

Saudi Arabia and the U.S. previously co-hosted talks in Jeddah, although those negotiations collapsed amid repeated ceasefire violations. Bringing Egypt and the UAE formally into the process could reshape the diplomatic landscape, given their ties to the warring parties.

Whether the Quad can overcome entrenched rivalries is uncertain. Each member state holds differing security interests in the Horn of Africa. However, the announcement marks the first sign of coordinated high-level engagement since early 2024, raising the possibility that external pressure, combined with war fatigue and battlefield stalemates, might force Sudan’s factions back to the negotiating table.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Germany begins large-scale rejections of Syrian asylum claims

Germany has begun issuing mass denials to Syrian asylum seekers after the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) resumed processing nearly 53,000 cases that had been frozen for almost a year.

According to figures cited in German media, the rejection rate has surged above 99 percent. In October, BAMF approved asylum for only one of 3,134 Syrian applicants. Nine individuals received subsidiary protection, and six others were granted deportation bans due to specific risks. All remaining applicants were denied.

The numbers mark the steepest tightening cycles in German asylum policy in recent decades and reflect a growing political consensus that Syrians arriving after the formal end of the conflict no longer qualify for blanket humanitarian status.

Although deportations have not yet begun, preparations are reportedly underway, including negotiations with regional governments about return arrangements and assessments of security conditions in different parts of Syria.

Berlin now faces a politically charged dilemma: implementing removals to a country still marked by fragmented authority, human-rights concerns, and lingering instability, while also responding to domestic pressure to reduce asylum approvals after years of highly elevated migration flows. The policy shift is likely to intensify debate within the European Union over asylum rules, burden-sharing, repatriation standards, and the question of when a post-war state can truly be considered safe.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief