U.S. military movements around Venezuela, including the arrival of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Puerto Rico, coincide with the 24 November terrorism designation of the Cartel de los Soles. Flight suspensions by international airlines and discreet departures of international diplomats suggest governments expect potential interdiction, covert activities, or limited U.S. strikes. The combined military, legal, commercial and diplomatic signals point toward a coordinated campaign against Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held productive talks in Geneva. Both sides edged toward an outline for President Donald Trump’s peace plan, though Kyiv’s red lines (no recognition of Russian gains and no forced demilitarization) remain firm. Any deal will require alternative compromises such as monitoring, phased withdrawals or sanctions arrangements, while Russia’s willingness to engage is unclear. In Lebanon, Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah commander Ali Tabtabai marks a major escalation, prompting warnings from Lebanese leaders and intensifying debates over Hezbollah’s disarmament. Europe is facing its own security concerns as Dutch authorities investigate coordinated drone incursions near sensitive NATO sites. Domestic U.S. politics shifted too, with the abrupt closure of the Department of Government Efficiency after it failed to deliver promised savings, and with President Donald Trump signaling plans to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
U.S. military poised around Venezuela
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan “Raizin” Caine, has arrived in Puerto Rico, a move widely read as preparation for imminent U.S. military activity directed at Venezuela. His presence on the island, which has long served as a forward staging ground for U.S. operations in the Caribbean, signals a shift from contingency planning to active operational management.
On 24 November the U.S. terrorism designation against the Cartel de los Soles, the Venezuelan military-linked trafficking network associated by the Trump administration with Nicolás Maduro, comes into force.
The designation expands Washington’s legal scope to target financial assets, logistics chains, and individuals connected to the group. It also supplies a rationale, in Washington’s view, for potential escalatory steps taken under counterterrorism authorities.
Commercial disruption has intensified. Several international carriers have suspended routes to Venezuela, with Turkish Airlines (the flag carrier of Türkiye) joining the list on 24 November. This indicates the rising operational risk and the prospect of airspace closures if the U.S. initiates strike or interdiction missions.
Diplomats are also taking precautions. Reports suggest that foreign embassy personnel have begun quietly departing Caracas, either through routine “authorized departure” instructions or discreet evacuation.
Taken together, the military posture, the terrorism designation, the commercial flight suspensions, and the diplomatic drawdowns point to preparations for a coordinated military campaign. This could include maritime interdictions, special forces operations, or limited strikes on Venezuelan security infrastructure.
The sequencing suggests Washington intends to isolate the regime physically, financially, and diplomatically, and there is currently no discussion of an off ramp.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict is likely between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
Rubio and Zelenskyy finesse peace framework concepts
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has left Geneva after a round of talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a meeting both sides described as substantive.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials say negotiators made progress toward a shared outline for President Donald Trump’s peace plan, although no one suggested that a final agreement is close.
After several hours of closed-door discussions, Rubio appeared briefly with Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff. Rubio called the session “probably the most productive and meaningful meeting so far,” while noting that “there is more work to do.” Yermak avoided specifics, a sign of how sensitive the negotiations have become.
Various versions of so-called European peace plans are now circulating in the media. These drafts sketch different mixes of ceasefire terms, territorial arrangements, demilitarization measures, and security guarantees. Most are either speculative exercises or diplomatic trial balloons rather than accurate reflections of the Geneva talks.
For Kyiv, the red lines are unchanged and non-negotiable. Zelenskyy is highly unlikely to accept any settlement that recognizes Russian territorial gains, grants Moscow additional land, or imposes deep reductions on Ukraine’s armed forces.
These positions have stiffened after three years of war and heavy casualties, and Ukrainian officials continue to describe them as matters of national survival.
Any workable agreement, in practice, will have to find other forms of compromise, such as security guarantees, phased withdrawals, international monitoring, reconstruction financing, or sanctions arrangements, without breaching those boundaries.
Whether Moscow is willing to engage on that basis remains the central uncertainty surrounding the Geneva talks.
Royal Navy shadows Russian vessels in the Channel
The Royal Navy has escorted two Russian naval vessels through the English Channel, the latest movement in a steady flow of Russian warships using one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors.
According to the Ministry of Defence, HMS Severn, an offshore patrol vessel, was assigned to monitor the Stoikiy, a Steregushchiy-class corvette, and the Yelnya, a fleet tanker, as they traveled west through the Dover Strait during the past fortnight.
Officials said the escort was routine, part of the United Kingdom’s commitment to track foreign naval activity in its area of responsibility and maintain awareness in the Channel. The Stoikiy, equipped with anti-ship missiles and air-defense systems, normally serves with Russia’s Baltic Fleet. The Yelnya, a replenishment tanker, supports longer-range deployments.
Although such transits are not uncommon, their frequency has increased amid friction between NATO and Russia. British defense officials maintain that every Russian warship entering the Channel is met and tracked, partly to uphold maritime safety in congested waters and partly to demonstrate allied vigilance. France’s Marine Nationale often coordinates with the Royal Navy to follow these movements as the ships pass between national zones.
Netherlands halts flights after drone incursions near sensitive bases
The Netherlands’ Defense Ministry confirmed that multiple drone incursions over the weekend forced the temporary suspension of air traffic at Eindhoven Airport, one of the country’s busiest military-civilian hubs. Officials said flight operations were halted as a precaution after unidentified drones were detected entering restricted airspace on repeated occasions, prompting security alerts and temporary runway closures.
The incidents followed a more serious confrontation on Friday, when the Dutch Air Force fired on several drones lingering over Volkel Air Base.
The facility, which hosts U.S. Air Force assets and stores a contingent of U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements, is among Europe’s most sensitive military sites.
Defense officials said the drones evaded interception and departed the area, a failure that has heightened concerns about deliberate attempts to probe NATO defenses.
Dutch authorities have not attributed the incursions to any state or non-state actor. Officials said the pattern suggested coordinated testing of air-defense responses rather than recreational flying. The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism has been informed, and additional counter-drone teams have been deployed to both Volkel and Eindhoven.
The episodes come amid growing unease in Europe about Russian surveillance efforts in NATO airspace, as well as an increase in drone overflights of critical infrastructure across the continent. The Netherlands is expected to brief allies through NATO channels in the coming days.
The Middle East
The birthplace of civilization
Israel kills senior Hezbollah commander near Beirut
Israel yesterday assassinated Ali Tabtabai, the most senior military commander in Hezbollah and a figure widely regarded by regional intelligence services as the group’s de facto chief of operations.
Tabtabai died in a targeted strike that used several precision-guided missiles and hit a crowded working-class neighborhood close to Beirut’s international airport. The blast hit part of a residential block that had served as a safe house, killing four others. At least three of the other dead appear to have been Hezbollah operatives, according to martyrdom notices issued by the group’s media outlets.
Israeli officials, speaking anonymously to local media, described the operation as part of an expanded campaign to weaken Hezbollah’s cross-border strike capabilities and to erode senior field leadership. Hezbollah has not issued a formal reply, although its channels portrayed Tabtabai as “one of the pillars” of its regional operations.
Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, condemned the strike as a violation of sovereignty. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the attack a “grave escalation”, arguing that it showed the need to return to the framework set out in UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the accord that ended the 2006 war. Although Salam did not name Hezbollah directly, the resolution’s provisions include the withdrawal of armed groups from the border area and the disarmament of non-state militias, a politically charged issue in the days ahead.
The assassination is likely to sharpen Lebanon’s internal debate over the disarmament of Hezbollah, and it may test the limits of international crisis-management efforts led by Paris and Washington.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
Dogecoinomics over
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been shut down eight months before its mandate was due to expire.
Launched with fanfare as a flagship cost-cutting scheme, DOGE pledged to uncover $2 trillion in federal fraud, waste, and duplication.
Its political appeal rested on the promise of a $5,000 rebate check for every American household, an idea that swiftly became a staple of rallies and campaign rhetoric.
In practice, DOGE spent little time on audits and concentrated instead on aggressively reducing the size of the bureaucracies that regulate the economy and deliver federal services. Agencies throughout the government, from procurement offices to labor inspectors to environmental review teams, lost significant portions of their staff. Several watchdog bodies were merged, scaled back, or left barely functional. The White House called this “streamlining”; critics said it amounted to a deliberate weakening of the state’s basic machinery.
The results were modest. Internal estimates indicate that DOGE identified only about $2 billion in plausible savings, a fraction of one percent of what had been promised and well below the economic cost of the disruption. Economists argue that the sudden removal of regulatory and compliance personnel contributed to delays in federal contracting, an increase in procurement mistakes, and gaps in oversight of financial institutions and infrastructure projects.
The early closure is widely viewed as an acknowledgment that the program had become politically and operationally untenable. Congressional leaders are now pressing for investigations into DOGE’s methods, the damage inflicted on federal services, and the administration’s initial claims of trillion-dollar savings that never materialized.
Trump signals Muslim Brotherhood designation
President Donald Trump said in a weekend interview that he intends to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a step that would rank among the administration’s most far-reaching moves against an Islamist movement with branches and affiliates across the Middle East.
The remark, delivered in typically direct terms, is the clearest indication so far that the White House aims to revive a policy push that has surfaced repeatedly since 2017, although it has stalled for practical legal and diplomatic reasons.
Officials familiar with the process said the administration is preparing to act through an executive order, which would allow the president to bypass Congressional delays and instruct the State Department to begin the formal review. A parallel legislative option is also being developed as a fallback, with a bill expected to be introduced if the executive route becomes bogged down in interagency or judicial disputes.
A designation of this sort would carry wide-ranging consequences. It would require sanctions on individuals and entities linked to Brotherhood networks, complicate U.S. relations with states where Brotherhood-derived parties hold political roles, and strain intelligence cooperation with allies that differentiate between political and militant branches.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would likely applaud the decision, while Qatar and Türkiye, where Brotherhood-aligned groups operate openly, would probably resist it.
Debate inside the administration is set to sharpen in the coming days as legal, diplomatic and security officials weigh the impact of targeting an organization whose membership is diffuse, whose structure varies across countries and whose local functions remain contested.
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What happened today:
380 - Theodosius I makes his formal adventus into Constantinople as Eastern Roman emperor. 1221 - Genghis Khan defeats Jalal al-Din at the Battle of the Indus, completing Mongol conquest of Central Asia. 1642 - Abel Tasman becomes the first recorded European to sight Van Diemen’s Land (Tasmania). 1859 - Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species is first published in London. 1963 - Lee Harvey Oswald is shot and killed on live television by Jack Ruby in Dallas. 1989 - Politburo of the Czechoslovak Communist Party resigns during the Velvet Revolution, ending Communist rule. 2013 - Iran and the P5+1 sign the Joint Plan of Action, an interim nuclear agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. 2016 - Government of Colombia and FARC sign a revised peace deal, formally ending more than 50 years of civil war. 2017 - Terrorist attack on the al-Rawda mosque in Egypt’s North Sinai kills hundreds of worshippers. 2022 - Anwar Ibrahim is officially named as the 10th prime minister of Malaysia after a hung parliament.



