In the U.S., federal prosecutors dropped the 2020 election-interference case against President Donald Trump, removing a major legal obstacle ahead of the 2026 campaign. Washington was shaken when two West Virginia National Guard members were killed and two wounded in a targeted shooting near the White House, prompting an immediate freeze on immigration applications from Afghan nationals. Across the Atlantic, tech tensions also rose in France, where GrapheneOS accused the government of demanding backdoor access and threatening its developers. Foreign-policy frictions deepened as the U.S. cut aid to South Africa and revoked its G20 invitation, while Taiwan announced a $40 billion defense budget to accelerate rearmament amid rising Chinese military pressure. China signaled a tentative thaw with Washington by purchasing large volumes of U.S. soybeans. Meanwhile, Israeli jets conducted simulated strikes near Iran after transiting Iraqi airspace, and Lebanon rebuked Tehran over comments on Hezbollah. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Federal prosecutor drops 2020 election interference case
The U.S. prosecutor overseeing the federal inquiry into alleged interference in the 2020 election has formally dropped the case against President Donald Trump, bringing an abrupt end to one of the most politically charged investigations of recent years.
The decision halts all federal efforts to pursue criminal liability over Trump’s attempts to challenge, overturn, or otherwise influence the outcome of the election, a process that had spanned multiple jurisdictions, grand juries, and competing legal theories.
Officials familiar with the matter say the prosecutor concluded that the evidentiary record, although extensive, was unlikely to meet the threshold required for criminal conviction. Internal assessments reportedly noted the difficulty of proving intent beyond a reasonable doubt, particularly in a highly politicized environment in which Trump and his legal team consistently framed their actions as part of a legitimate effort to contest election results. Prosecutors were also aware that central witness testimony had grown increasingly complicated after years of political disputes, shifting public statements, and legal challenges.
The move carries significant political implications. For Trump, it removes the most consequential federal case tied directly to the tumultuous period following the 2020 vote, clearing a major legal obstacle ahead of the 2026 campaign cycle and reinforcing his argument that the investigations were politically motivated.
Legal analysts note that dropping the case does not alter the historical record of the post-election crisis but illustrates the constraints of criminal law when applied to political behavior carried out at the highest levels of government.
State-level cases and civil proceedings remain separate matters, but the federal withdrawal marks a decisive moment in the long-running debate over accountability for the events that followed the 2020 election.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
Taiwan unveils $40 billion special defense budget
Taiwan has announced an extraordinary $40 billion special defense budget, a sweeping expansion of its military spending that comes amid rising pressure from the U.S. to accelerate its rearmament.
The package, separate from Taiwan’s regular annual defense allocation, is one of the largest single injections of military funding in the island’s history and signals a more urgent shift toward preparing for a potential confrontation with China.
Officials in Taipei say the funds will be used to purchase a mix of new defense systems, many of them sourced from the U.S., Taiwan’s largest unofficial ally and principal security partner.
Priority items include air- and missile-defense platforms, long-range precision-strike weapons, naval systems, and enhanced surveillance capabilities.
The budget is also expected to support faster delivery of equipment already ordered but delayed by production bottlenecks in the U.S. defense-industrial base.
The move follows months of U.S. diplomatic and military pressure on Taipei to strengthen its deterrence posture amid increasingly aggressive Chinese military activity around the island, including record numbers of PLA sorties across the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
Washington has argued that Taiwan must invest heavily in asymmetric defenses, weapons that are mobile, survivable, and difficult for the PLA to neutralize early in a conflict.
Taiwan’s government has framed the special budget as essential in a rapidly worsening security environment.
For China, the announcement is likely to be interpreted as a deepening of U.S.–Taiwan military cooperation and another step toward what Beijing describes as the “hollowing out” of the One-China policy.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
China resumes large U.S. soybean purchases
China has quietly returned to the U.S. agricultural market, buying at least ten cargoes of American soybeans worth roughly $300 million in deals concluded since 25 November, just one day after the phone call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The timing is notable.
The soybean trade has long been a gauge of the broader U.S.–China relationship, rising during periods of diplomatic warmth and collapsing whenever tensions spill into economic retaliation.
The new purchases suggest that Beijing may be signaling a cautious willingness to stabilize commercial ties after months of friction over technology policy, investment screening, and security concerns.
For China, soybeans remain strategically important. The country is the world’s largest consumer of the crop, relying on imports to feed its livestock and manage domestic food prices.
Diversification efforts, particularly increased buying from Brazil, have reduced China’s dependence on U.S. supply, but American beans still offer competitive pricing and consistent quality, making them a politically sensitive yet attractive option.
For Washington, the contracts provide a modest boost to American farmers, who have faced volatile export conditions and shifting global demand.
The scale of the purchases is substantial enough to suggest a deliberate policy choice in Beijing rather than a routine market adjustment.
Whether this indicated the start of a broader thaw or a temporary gesture will depend on the course of upcoming negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs, semiconductor controls, and restrictions on Chinese investment.
U.S. cuts aid to South Africa and rescinds G20 invitation
President Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. will terminate all aid to South Africa and withdraw the country’s invitation to the next G20 summit, a decision that ranks among Washington’s most severe diplomatic rebukes of Pretoria since the end of Apartheid.
The move signals a sharp decline in bilateral relations and reflects mounting U.S. frustration with South Africa’s foreign-policy direction, particularly its alignment with Russia and its increasingly strained dealings with Western partners.
Ending aid will affect a broad mix of programs that range from public-health initiatives to trade facilitation, while removing South Africa from the G20 guest list carries symbolic weight, calling into question its standing as a prominent voice for the Global South.
Officials close to the administration say the measures are intended to compel a strategic shift in Pretoria, although some argue they may accelerate South Africa’s drift toward alternative partnerships with Moscow and Beijing.
The announcement is likely to ignite a fierce domestic debate within South Africa, where economic pressures are acute and diplomatic isolation would arrive at a politically delicate moment.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Israeli jets conduct simulated strikes near Iran after entering Iraqi airspace
Israeli fighter jets have twice entered Iraqi airspace in the past two days, approached Iran’s western frontier, and carried out what Iraqi officials describe as missile-firing “drills” before returning to their bases.
The maneuvers, although not publicly acknowledged by Israel, are being viewed across the region as a pointed signal in the intensifying shadow confrontation between Israel and Iran.
According to Iraqi security officials, the jets crossed into Iraqi airspace at high altitude and followed a trajectory consistent with earlier reconnaissance and strike-simulation routes used during periods of heightened tension.
Their approach toward Iran’s borders, combined with simulated missile launches, suggests a rehearsal of long-range strike profiles rather than routine surveillance.
For Iraq, the flights represent another breach of sovereignty at a time when the government is seeking to avoid being drawn into a wider regional contest.
For Tehran, the message is clear. Israeli planners have long considered a credible long-range strike option essential to deterring Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. In recent months, rhetoric from Israeli officials has again grown more forceful, and intelligence coordination with Western partners has increased.
The drills appear crafted to reinforce the impression that Israel is both willing and able to project force across multiple states if it judges Iranian activity to cross certain thresholds.
The incidents also illustrate the geopolitical fragility of Iraqi airspace, which has repeatedly been used, formally or otherwise, by foreign militaries operating in the region.
Baghdad now faces renewed pressure to respond diplomatically, even as it tries to maintain a delicate balance between U.S. security cooperation, Iranian influence, and domestic political sensitivities; especially considering Iraqi just held a national election on 11 November and is currently attempting to form a new government.
These incursions are another indication of Israeli preparations for new strikes on Iran in the near to medium term.
Lebanese minister rebukes Tehran over Hezbollah comments
Lebanon’s foreign minister delivered one of the sharpest public criticisms of Tehran in years, responding directly to remarks made the previous day by Ali Akbar Velayati, the long-time senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Velayati had declared that Hezbollah was “more necessary than bread and water” to Lebanon.
His comments were widely seen in Beirut as an attempt to dictate Lebanon’s internal political agenda and to warn Lebanese factions against asserting state authority over armed groups.
In reply, the Lebanese foreign minister cited an earlier assurance by Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who had insisted that Iran does not interfere in Lebanon’s domestic affairs. The minister said he had wanted to believe that statement “until your Supreme Leader’s advisor Ali Akbar Velayati came out today to guide us on what is truly important in Lebanon and warned us of the consequences of disarming Hezbollah.”
He then articulated a broader national sentiment that cuts across party and sect, arguing that Lebanon’s survival depends not on foreign-imposed priorities but on the restoration of its sovereignty. “What is more important to us than water and bread,” he said, “is our sovereignty, our freedom, and the independence of our internal decision-making, free from ideological slogans and transborder regional agendas that have devastated our country and continue to drag us further into ruin.”
The exchange highlights the central tension in Lebanese politics: a state struggling to assert control over its own institutions and security apparatus and external actors, above all Iran, whose influence shapes the calculations of powerful domestic groups. It also reflects a growing willingness within parts of the Lebanese political class to challenge the notion that Hezbollah’s armed status is beyond debate.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
National Guard members killed in targeted attack near White House
Two members of the West Virginia National Guard were killed in downtown Washington, D.C., after a gunman opened fire on them in what authorities described as a targeted ambush just blocks from the White House. Two other guardsmen were wounded.
The attack occurred near the Farragut West Metro station in mid-afternoon, when the assailant approached the group and shot them without warning. Other National Guard personnel returned fire immediately, subdued the suspect, and took him into custody, with all three men transported to local hospitals.
Officials later disclosed that the suspect is an Afghan national who entered the United States in 2021 and had previously served in special-forces units working alongside the CIA and other U.S. government agencies.
In response, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced an indefinite pause on the processing of all immigration applications filed by Afghan nationals.
The shooting, carried out in the heart of the capital and directed at uniformed personnel performing routine duty, sent shockwaves through federal agencies and has intensified scrutiny of security procedures and vetting practices.
U.S. moves to end protected status for Haitian immigrants
The Trump administration has launched a renewed effort to terminate the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation for roughly 353,000 Haitian immigrants living in the U.S., reopening one of the most contentious immigration disputes of recent years.
TPS, first granted after Haiti’s devastating 2010 earthquake and extended several times because of persistent instability, has allowed Haitian nationals to live and work legally in the country.
The administration now argues that conditions in Haiti no longer justify the designation, despite ongoing political turmoil, gang-related violence, and a deteriorating public-security environment.
If the termination proceeds as planned, Haitian TPS holders will become eligible for deportation in early February unless they secure another legal basis to remain.
Immigration attorneys warn that only a small share of affected individuals are likely to qualify for alternative forms of relief, leaving many in a precarious position despite deep economic and family ties to the U.S.
For policymakers in Washington, the move reflects a broader shift toward narrowing humanitarian protections.
North Carolina court upholds new congressional map
A three-judge panel overseeing the North Carolina redistricting cases has unanimously rejected attempts to block the congressional map enacted earlier this year, clearing the way for the new boundaries to be used in the next election cycle.
The ruling is a notable victory for the Republican-controlled legislature, which drafted the map after the state supreme court reversed its earlier view on partisan gerrymandering.
Plaintiffs argued that the new districts weakened the voting power of minority communities and entrenched partisan advantage, but the panel concluded that the legal standard required for an injunction had not been met.
The decision leaves challengers with few short-term options, since any appeal would confront tight electoral deadlines and a judiciary that has grown increasingly unwilling to intervene in redistricting disputes.
The unanimous nature of the ruling also signals judicial doubt about claims that the map violates federal protections, strengthening the legislature’s position and shaping a congressional landscape that is likely to favor Republicans for several election cycles.
New Europe
Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases
Starmer government weathers a turbulent political week
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government is experiencing one of its most intense weeks in the media since taking office, as a series of major policy moves, leaks, and controversies arrive in quick succession.
The most contentious proposal is a plan to abolish jury trials for all criminal cases except murder, manslaughter, and rape, a sweeping change that critics argue would overturn centuries of British legal tradition and shift far greater authority to judges.
At the same time, the Office for Budget Responsibility has suffered an unprecedented full leak of its report ahead of the Budget, revealing projections that taxes will rise by £26 billion (about $33.1 billion) by 2029 and that income-tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, drawing more workers into higher tax bands through fiscal drag.
The government’s domestic program is expanding elsewhere. Labour intends to spend £1.8 billion (about $2.3 billion) on a national digital-ID system, a policy ministers describe as modernization but which civil-liberties groups warn could entrench state overreach.
Climate policy has created further unease. A per-mile tax on electric-vehicle drivers is being prepared, even as the “temporary” fuel-duty cut on petrol and diesel is extended once more. Critics say the combination penalizes those who adopted cleaner transport while offering continuing benefits to fossil-fuel use.
On energy, ministers are unveiling their North Sea Strategy, which will relax restrictions on new oil and gas drilling. The government argues that greater domestic production will smooth the transition and strengthen energy security, while environmental groups counter that the plan contradicts the United Kingdom’s climate commitments and reinforces reliance on hydrocarbons.
Taken together, the week’s announcements depict an administration balancing fiscal pressures, legal upheaval, climate-policy inconsistencies, and growing criticism from both left and right, all within a single turbulent stretch.
Free Speech and Digital Privacy
Under threat worldwide
GrapheneOS alleges French pressure for backdoor access
GrapheneOS says it is facing intense pressure from the French state, which it accuses of demanding backdoor access and of using both official and corporate media to link the project to criminal activity.
GrapheneOS is an open-source, security-hardened version of Android designed to run on Google Pixel devices. It emphasizes rigorous privacy protections, exploit mitigation, and verifiable security rather than proprietary features or commercial add-ons.
Because its code is open and its architecture avoids any form of privileged access for third parties, it is widely used by journalists, activists, and professionals who require secure communications.
According to the developers, French law-enforcement agencies have issued direct threats to seize servers and arrest team members if they refuse to cooperate. In response, the project is withdrawing from France entirely and ending its use of French hosting providers such as OVH.
The team also reports a surge in reputational attacks, including harassment, misinformation campaigns, and raids on their community channels. They argue that two France-based Android forks, /e/ and iodéOS, both recipients of government funding, are exploiting the situation by reinforcing misleading narratives that depict GrapheneOS as unsuitable for ordinary users, even though these rival systems are, in the developers’ view, far less private and significantly less secure.
Taken together, the dispute marks a sharp confrontation between a privacy-focused open-source project and a government intent on expanding lawful-access capabilities, with broader implications for Europe’s ongoing struggle over encryption, surveillance, and technological sovereignty.
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What happened today:
602 - Byzantine emperor Maurice executed after coup by Phocas. 1095 - Pope Urban II proclaims the First Crusade at the Council of Clermont. 1382 - Mamluk sultan al-Salih Hajji deposed, ending the Qalawunid line and beginning Burji Mamluk rule in Egypt. 1918 - Makhnovshchina anarchist territory established after Makhno’s forces take Huliaipole in Ukraine. 1965 - Pentagon advises President Johnson that U.S. troop levels in Vietnam must rise to about 400,000. 1978 - Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is founded in the village of Fis in southeastern Türkiye. 1992 - Second Venezuelan coup attempt launched against President Carlos Andrés Pérez. 2020 - Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is assassinated near Tehran.



