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Putin warns Ukraine to withdraw or face continued war

Russian President Vladimir Putin has hardened his wartime demands, asserting that Russia will halt military operations only if Ukrainian forces withdraw from all territories currently held by Kyiv. “If Ukrainian forces withdraw from the territories they currently hold, we will stop military operations. If they do not, we will achieve this by military means,” he said, in one of his clearest ultimatums since the invasion began.

Strategically, the ultimatum signals that Moscow’s negotiating baseline has shifted again. Russian officials have previously floated a settlement involving recognition of territories held by Russian forces and Ukraine adopting a “neutral” status. 

Putin’s latest formulation goes further, implying that Ukraine should not only accept its current battlefield losses but also withdraw from additional areas, including territory retaken by Kyiv or never occupied by Russia. 

The remarks also reflect Moscow’s assessment that it cannot secure a decisive military victory, but that it might sway political debates in the United States and Europe.

The statement reassures Russian audiences that the Kremlin is setting the pace and terms of the conflict, despite massive battlefield losses and growing economic strain.

The ultimatum also tests the cohesion of Ukraine’s supporters. By presenting a “peace offer” that Kyiv cannot credibly accept, Moscow aims to create doubt in Washington DC and European capitals about Ukraine’s prospects for reclaiming territory.

The accompanying threat, that Russia will enforce its terms by force if necessary, is intended to convey both confidence and inevitability, particularly as Russia seeks to exploit manpower and matériel advantages, along with divisions among Ukraine’s partners.

Officials in Kyiv argue that withdrawing under Russian pressure would guarantee neither peace nor security, but would instead invite renewed aggression. They note that Russia’s demands ignore Ukraine’s sovereignty and its internationally recognized borders.

Whether Putin’s comments alter the trajectory of Western support will depend on political debates in Washington and across Europe, where elections, budget constraints and shifting public sentiment are shaping discussions about long-term aid.

For now, the Kremlin appears intent on projecting resolve, raising the cost of resistance and arguing that any refusal to accept its terms proves that Western governments, rather than Russia, are driving the war.

Again, we assess that the U.S. backed peace plan has little chance of success at this time.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Investigators search chief negotiator’s office in Ukraine’s biggest corruption case

Investigators in Ukraine have searched the office and associated premises of Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelensky, in what has become the most significant corruption probe of Zelensky’s tenure.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) announced on 28 November that its detectives were conducting authorized searches as part of a broad investigation into alleged graft at Energoatom, the state-owned operator of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.

The Energoatom inquiry is described by Ukrainian officials as the largest corruption case opened under Zelensky’s presidency, both in scale and in the political sensitivity of those involved.

At the center of the alleged scheme, investigators say, is businessman Timur Mindich, who is known to have longstanding personal and political ties to the president and members of his inner circle.

Although Yermak has not been charged, the decision to search the premises of such a senior official represents a sharp escalation in the inquiry and signals that NABU is prepared to scrutinize even the highest levels of the political elite.

For the Zelensky administration, which has built much of its credibility abroad on promises to confront entrenched corruption, the case poses a challenge at a time when Ukraine is seeking continued Western military and financial support.

The political consequences may prove significant. The investigation threatens to unsettle the environment around the president, intensify friction between anti-corruption bodies and elements of the political establishment, and prompt fresh questions among Ukraine’s Western partners about the strength of anti-graft institutions during wartime. Further developments are expected as NABU prepares additional procedural steps and potential indictments.

Russia’s economic slump deepens

Russia’s latest industrial data point to a sharp contraction across several core segments of its manufacturing base, revealing the strains imposed by sanctions, supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages and the diversion of capacity toward the military sector.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, October year-on-year output figures show steep declines across a range of strategic categories. Tractor production fell by 47 percent, reflecting reduced domestic demand and persistent shortages of imported components. Elevator manufacturing contracted by 35 percent, a sign of cooling activity in construction and heavy industry. Output of internal combustion engines declined by 42 percent, indicating severe bottlenecks in precision tools and imported electronics.

Passenger-car production dropped by 47 percent compared with a year earlier. Russia’s civilian automotive sector has been among the most affected since Western and Japanese manufacturers exited the market, leaving domestic plants reliant on Chinese suppliers and smaller intermediaries. Bus production also fell sharply, down between 25 and 40 percent depending on category, suggesting that municipal and regional procurement has been disrupted by rising costs and limited capacity.

Russia’s wider economic strains are visible elsewhere. The country’s railway monopoly, on which the military depends for most resupply, is reportedly carrying debts of around $51 billion and will need a government bailout to continue operating.

The data reflects a broader shift in Russia’s economy. Industrial capacity and skilled labor continue to move toward defense manufacturing, where spending has surged. Civilian industries, dependent on imported technologies and specialized components, are struggling to adapt.

The October collapse therefore highlights both structural and cyclical pressures: sanctions that have weakened supply chains, domestic inflation that has reduced purchasing power and the deepening militarization of the economy. Without reliable long-term suppliers or a reduction in dependence on Western technologies, the slump in civilian industrial output is likely to persist into 2026 and beyond.

Meanwhile, more than half of Russia’s regions are running serious budget deficits. One region, Yakutia, has suspended payments to Russian soldiers after officials acknowledged a severe shortfall. The pause, confirmed by regional Finance Minister Ivan Alekseev in a televised statement on 21 November, affects enlistment bonuses and other incentives promised to contract servicemen.

The combination of shrinking industrial output, regional fiscal pressure and mounting liabilities in key infrastructure sectors points to an economy struggling to sustain both civilian needs and an extended war effort as sanctions start to bite.

Move fast and break things

U.S. reevaluates green cards from 19 countries of concern

The U.S. government has launched an unprecedented, system-wide reappraisal of every green card issued to nationals of 19 “countries of concern”, following an ambush near the White House in which one U.S. National Guard member was killed and another critically wounded.

The attacker, an Afghan national who arrived through a post-withdrawal resettlement program, has become the catalyst for the most sweeping review of lawful permanent residents in recent American history.

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) says it is conducting a “full-scale, rigorous re-examination” of every permanent residency file linked to the 19 countries named in a presidential proclamation of June 2025 as having “screening and vetting deficiencies”. These include Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Libya, Eritrea, Venezuela, Cuba, Laos, Turkmenistan and others.

The policy stands out because it does not focus only on new arrivals or pending cases. Instead, it reaches backward, reopening files belonging to people who have lived legally in the U.S. for years, in many instances after extensive screening. Officials say adjudicators have been instructed to give additional weight to “negative, country-specific factors”. In practical terms, this means individuals from the 19 states may be required to attend new interviews, present supplementary evidence, or undergo expanded background and security checks.

The political context matters. The killing of a uniformed service member in the nation’s capital has turned what might otherwise have been a contentious administrative measure into a national-security priority.

President Donald Trump ordered the review and cast it as an effort to prevent major failures in the previous administration’s refugee and immigration vetting processes. Afghans who arrived under the 2021–25 resettlement pipeline are expected to encounter particularly close scrutiny.

The consequences are extensive. For tens of thousands of lawful permanent residents, the process introduces uncertainty into what was once regarded as one of the most secure legal statuses in the U.S. Some may face delays in renewing green cards, others may see naturalization applications slowed or paused. In some cases, the review could result in revocations if USCIS determines that the original vetting was inadequate.

The initiative reflects a shift in doctrine: lawful permanent residency is no longer treated as a settled status when questions of identity, document integrity or geopolitical risk emerge.

For the administration, the death of a service member has created the political space and public acceptance to act forcefully.

Birthplace of civilization

Israel warns embassies of dangerous areas in Beirut as tensions rise

Israel has reportedly issued alerts to foreign embassies, international organizations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, warning that several districts in Beirut’s southern suburbs may soon become unsafe as military activity in Lebanon intensifies.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense has circulated detailed lists of streets and neighborhoods that could be affected if operations against Hezbollah expand.

The warnings identify specific streets across Haret Hreik, Bir al-Abed, Muawad, Hadath, al-Mreijeh and al-Ruwais, areas that form the core of Hezbollah’s political, social and military presence in Beirut. They also include adjacent districts such as Tahwitat al-Ghadir, al-Barakat, al-Ouzai, al-Basta al-Tahta and Ras al-Nabaa, along with several Palestinian camps that have long been viewed as sensitive security zones because of the presence of various armed factions outside state control.

The alerts appear intended to signal that Israel is preparing for a broader campaign in Lebanon, one that could go beyond the familiar pattern of strikes along the southern frontier and in the Bekaa that have continued since the November 2024 ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Al-Jadeed television reported this week that Israel has received U.S. approval to “take action” in Lebanon, although Washington has not confirmed this publicly.

The warnings follow an Israeli airstrike last week in the southern suburbs of Beirut that killed Ali Tabtabai, Hezbollah’s chief of staff. The attack was the most significant strike in the capital in months and departed from the recent pattern of highly localized exchanges.

Israel maintains that Hezbollah continues to rebuild and expand its military capabilities inside Lebanon, including the stockpiling of precision weapons and the strengthening of command structures.

For Lebanon, the warnings heighten fears that a new round of conflict may be about to begin, presumably after the Pope’s visit, which runs from 30 November until 2 December. The southern suburbs of Beirut contain dense civilian populations, social-service networks and Hezbollah’s institutional infrastructure, making any large-scale action in these areas both militarily significant and potentially devastating. The inclusion of Palestinian camps in the alerts suggests Israeli concern that non-Hezbollah factions might become drawn into the conflict, adding more instability to an already volatile setting.

The alerts place pressure on foreign missions in Beirut, which must now evaluate evacuation plans or other contingencies.

Taken together, the warnings, the reported U.S. green light, and the killing of Tabtabai, suggest that Israel is gearing up for ‘round two’ against Hezbollah.

Australia lists Iran’s IRGC as a state sponsor of terrorism

Australia has formally designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a state sponsor of terrorism, marking one of the most consequential shifts in Canberra’s policy toward Tehran in decades.

The decision reflects rising concern over the IRGC’s global activities, including its role in arming proxy militias, directing overseas intimidation efforts and supporting attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Middle East.

Under the new designation, individuals or organizations in Australia that provide support to the IRGC face severe criminal penalties. Anyone who funds, assists, recruits for or maintains operational links with the group may be prosecuted and sentenced to as much as 25 years in prison. The government has also expanded financial sanctions and intelligence-sharing arrangements to identify networks tied to the Iranian security apparatus.

The move follows months of pressure from Australia’s security agencies, which have warned that the IRGC’s overseas operations increasingly intersect with Canberra’s national-security interests. Officials point to the group’s supply of drones and missile technology to Russia for use in Ukraine, its backing of Hezbollah and other regional militias and its cyber and information campaigns directed at Western countries. Iranian attempts to intimidate dissidents and dual nationals abroad, including within Australia, also weighed heavily in the government’s assessment.

Canberra’s decision places Australia among a small group of countries that have imposed the most sweeping restrictions available against the IRGC. The United States designated the corps as a foreign terrorist organization in 2019. Several other allies have considered similar measures, although legal or diplomatic constraints have slowed progress. Australia’s move is likely to intensify pressure on the United Kingdom and European Union, where debates over such listings have grown sharper after a series of Iranian-linked assassination attempts and sabotage operations on European soil.

The designation also marks a broader hardening of Australia’s stance toward the Iranian regime.

The move adds to the mounting diplomatic pressure on Tehran at a time when tensions in the Middle East remain very high.

Under threat worldwide

High Court accepts challenge to Australia’s social media ban

The High Court of Australia has accepted the filing of a constitutional challenge to the proposed Social Media Ban, a case brought by the Digital Freedom Project together with two individual applicants, Noah Jones and Macy Neyland, who are both 15 years old.

The action represents the first substantial test of the government’s plan, which, starting next month, will restrict access to social-media platforms for users below 16 years old. This will create new compliance obligations for technology companies operating in Australia, and lead to Australians having to prove their age to use social media platforms - creating major freedom of speech, privacy, and data-protection threats.

The Minister responsible for the legislation, the Commonwealth and the eSafety Commissioner, have been formally served with the Writ of Summons and Statement of Claim.

Because the case raises questions about the scope of federal legislative authority and the implied freedoms within the Constitution, all State and Territory Attorneys-General have been notified under the Judiciary Act and may choose to intervene.

Their participation would permit the High Court to assess a wider range of constitutional arguments, particularly those concerning federal–state relations and the limits of executive power in regulating online expression.

The High Court will now determine the initial procedural steps, including whether the case should be heard by the full bench, the timetable for written submissions and whether any applications for interlocutory relief, such as a stay on enforcement of the proposed ban, will be considered.

Directions are expected in the coming weeks, after which the matter will move to substantive argument.

The challenge is set to become a significant test of digital rights, government oversight of online platforms and the boundaries of constitutional protections in the digital era.

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