As the noose continued to tighten around Venezuela, Washington has delivered an unusually sharp ultimatum to President Nicolás Maduro, offering guarantees only if he leaves the country immediately. Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s envoy, reportedly travels today to Moscow for renewed cease-fire talks. The conflict has widened elsewhere: Ukraine is suspected of striking a Russian-linked tanker off Senegal, raising the prospect of a globalized maritime contest with implications for African states and international commercial shipping. U.S. security policy is hardening towards China. A new National Farm Security Action Plan bars future CCP-linked farmland purchases and seeks to unwind existing holdings, inviting legal and diplomatic friction with Beijing. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, a wave of Republican retirements could reshape the 2026 electoral map. In the Middle East, Türkiye has verified new PKK withdrawals, the U.S. has struck ISIS weapons sites in Syria, Hamas and Israel remain stalled over the next cease-fire phase, and Benjamin Netanyahu has requested a presidential pardon for corruption charges. In Europe, the EU advances its “chat control” proposal, and Washington warns that free speech is eroding in Britain. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
White House reportedly issues blunt warning to Maduro
Following President Donald Trump’s warning on Saturday that aircraft should not use Venezuelan airspace, a long-anticipated phone call between Trump and Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro took place on Sunday.
In the call, Trump delivered a clear ultimatum to Maduro, according to reporting by mainstream media outlets like CNN and the Miami Herald (the White House confirmed the call but offered no other details of the conversation).
Washington’s message was reported to be that Maduro could still secure personal guarantees for himself and his closest associates, although only if he agreed to leave Venezuela immediately.
There has been a large increase in the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean over the past month, consistent with plans to take military action against Venezuela, as we’ve reported in detail.
A CNN report states that Maduro privately informed the United States he would step down within 18 months, but Trump is pressing for his immediate resignation.
The tone of the warning indicates that the U.S. now considers the scope for a negotiated departure to be narrowing quickly.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side
Witkoff heads to Moscow
Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s envoy handling talks on the Ukraine war, is rumored to be departing for Moscow today.
The unconfirmed trip would mark the start of a new round of negotiations with senior Russian officials, following several days of revised discussions with Ukrainian representatives in Florida.
Witkoff has become the central figure in Washington’s effort to craft a cease-fire framework, despite controversy over a leaked call in which he appeared to advise a Kremlin aide.
The journey to Moscow carries both diplomatic opportunity and political risk, since the U.S. hopes he can narrow differences after reworking an earlier peace proposal that Kyiv had rejected as overly favorable to Moscow.
For Russia, his arrival offers a chance to pull the U.S. deeper into direct bargaining on terms that could formalize its territorial gains; for Ukraine and its European partners, it raises concern that Washington may prioritize expediency over long-term security.
In short, Witkoff’s mission could influence the next phase of the war, and it reflects the flexible and transactional character of current U.S. diplomacy.
Ukrainian strike reaches Senegalese waters
A major twist has emerged in the maritime shadow war, with Ukrainian intelligence reportedly striking a Russian-linked tanker far from the battlefield in waters off Senegal almost five thousand five hundred kilometers (about three thousand four hundred miles) from Ukraine.
The target, the Turkish-owned MV Mersin, is believed to be part of the Russian shadow fleet that moves sanctioned oil through opaque ownership networks.
Early reports indicate that the vessel began taking on water in its engine room shortly after the attack, then issued a distress call that prompted tugboats from nearby ports to race to keep it afloat.
This appears to be the first instance of the conflict spilling into West African waters, a sign that the contest between Kyiv and Moscow now spans continents and supply chains rather than remaining confined to front-line engagements.
If confirmed, the operation would amount to a calculated expansion of Ukraine’s effort to disrupt Russia’s economy and particularly its maritime trade, placing governments along Africa’s Atlantic coast in an awkward position as they balance maritime security responsibilities, energy interests and diplomatic ties.
A previously quiet front has stirred, and the resulting political and commercial ripples may extend well beyond the Gulf of Guinea, unnerving insurers, shippers and governments already anxious about the vulnerability of global sea lanes.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
National Farm Security Action Plan
The U.S. government has announced the “National Farm Security Action Plan,” a broad initiative intended to limit foreign influence over American agriculture.
The plan bans all future farmland purchases involving entities linked to the Chinese Communist Party and instructs federal agencies to identify and, where the law permits, unwind existing holdings through executive authorities already in place.
Officials say the policy is motivated by national-security concerns, including the possibility that land near sensitive facilities could be used for intelligence gathering or as a point of pressure on food-supply chains.
The framework also introduces substantial penalties, with fines reaching as high as 25% of a property’s assessed value for violations, a sign of Washington’s increasingly forceful approach to the ownership of strategic assets.
The initiative is likely to draw legal challenges over due-process standards and the definition of “CCP-linked,” and could further strain relations with Beijing.
Republican retirements reshape the 2026 landscape
A growing number of Republicans in Congress are heading for the exit door ahead of the 2026 elections, creating one of the largest waves of retirements in recent cycles.
Four Republican senators have confirmed that they will not seek another term, part of a broader group of eight senators from both parties choosing to step aside.
In the House, the trend is sharper. Twenty-three Republican representatives have announced that they will not run again, either to retire from public life or to pursue other political offices.
This level of turnover, the highest since at least 2018, reflects a mix of ambition, political fatigue, and strategic calculation in an unsettled national climate. For the Republican Party, the openings carry clear risks.
Competitive seats without incumbents tend to be more exposed, giving Democrats new openings in districts that might otherwise be difficult to challenge.
With so many Republicans departing, the landscape for 2026 is shifting quickly, increasing uncertainty about the party’s hold on the House and complicating its Senate prospects as it prepares for a consequential election cycle.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Türkiye verifies PKK withdrawals
Turkish intelligence services and the military have confirmed a new step in the peace process, stating that the PKK has withdrawn from six fortified cave complexes in the Zap and Metina areas of the Kurdistan Region.
Under the agreed “verification mechanism,” inspection teams entered each site and found them fully evacuated, with ammunition and supplies destroyed before departure. The confirmation follows the PKK’s earlier pullout from Türkiye and, more recently, its retreat from zones along the frontier into deeper positions in the Qandil Mountains.
Ankara views the clear withdrawal of personnel and materiel as evidence that the group is meeting its commitments, while the PKK’s move further inland helps preserve its cohesion during a politically delicate period.
The withdrawals reduce the risk of clashes along the border and suggest that both sides are trying to stabilize the fragile de-escalation, although the durability of this progress will depend on whether these technical steps lead to broader political compromises.
U.S. hits ISIS cache in southern Syria
U.S. Central Command said on Sunday that American forces had conducted a significant operation against Islamic State (ISIS) infrastructure in southern Syria, destroying more than 15 sites tied to the group’s weapons-storage network.
The mission uncovered and eliminated a sizable cache of materiel, including more than 130 mortars and rockets, assault rifles, machine guns, anti-tank mines, and components used to assemble improvised explosive devices.
Troops also located and destroyed quantities of illicit narcotics, which U.S. officials increasingly regard as a revenue source for ISIS as its territorial footprint contracts. The strike is part of a broader campaign aimed at disrupting ISIS cells in the Syrian desert, where militants have exploited remote terrain and smuggling routes to regenerate limited operational capacity.
Washington has stepped up counter-ISIS efforts in 2025 following a rise in activity attributed to fighters in the Badia region, and the latest announcement signals that, although ISIS no longer holds territory, its dispersed networks still demand sustained pressure from U.S. and partner forces.
Hamas accuses Israel of stalling the next phase of the ceasefire
Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem told Al-Jazeera that the group’s continued efforts to locate and recover the remains of Israeli hostages, despite what he described as severe operational difficulties in Gaza, show its full commitment to the ceasefire agreement. He accused Israel of postponing the start of phase two of the deal, which is due to bring longer pauses in fighting, broader humanitarian access, and additional exchanges of hostages and detainees.
Qassem urged the mediators, particularly Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., to press Israel to meet its obligations, open the Rafah crossing, and move into the next stage of the arrangement.
The broader situation is fragile. The shift from phase one to phase two was always likely to be contentious, because it demands deeper concessions from both parties and touches on politically sensitive issues such as aid flows, security provisions, and limits on military activity.
Israel remains divided over how far it is prepared to proceed, while Hamas sees the framework as essential for securing humanitarian relief and retaining political influence. Mediators are expected to intensify their efforts in the coming days, and the transition may take the form of gradual, partial steps rather than a clear formal move into phase two. Although the risk of collapse is real, both sides have reasons to preserve the agreement, pointing to a slow and tentative progression rather than an abrupt breakdown.
Netanyahu seeks a presidential pardon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has submitted a request for a presidential pardon to President Isaac Herzog, a step that elevates the political and legal stakes in his ongoing corruption trial. Netanyahu continues to deny wrongdoing
The move follows a letter sent on 17 November by President Donald Trump urging Herzog to “fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu,” an unusual instance of foreign involvement in Israel’s judicial affairs and a reminder of the close personal ties between the two men.
For Herzog, the choice carries significant political and constitutional implications. Granting a pardon would swiftly terminate the cases, although it would likely provoke a fierce public debate about equality before the law and the boundaries of presidential authority.
Refusing the request would extend a long-running and politically corrosive saga at a moment when Israel’s government is under intense pressure at home and abroad.
A pardon would also remove a substantial constraint on Netanyahu’s actions. Currently he has to worry about prosecution when he leaves office: while he is in office he has been able to continually delay the trial proceeding due to various security and operational emergencies, he won’t have that option when he’s out of office. A full pardon would free Netanyahu to act without having to worry about constantly making compromises with political allies to maintain a parliamentary coalition so as to ensure he stays in office.
Free Speech and Digital Privacy
Under threat worldwide
EU moves chat control to the next stage
The European Union’s Council of Ministers has endorsed its position on the “chat control” proposal, opening the door to inter-institutional talks without creating any new law. The Council’s text now becomes the basis for trilogue negotiations with the European Parliament and the European Commission.
‘Chat control’ is intended to find a means to monitor private communications in order to detect child abuse material. It would be impossible to do without creating backdoors to encrypted systems, and thus raises not only the prospect of mass monitoring of the messages of private citizens, but also security risks through compromise of encryption.
Parliament must still establish its own mandate before attempting to strike a compromise, a task likely to prove difficult given the political and legal sensitivities surrounding encryption, privacy, and child-protection policy.
Even in favorable circumstances, a final regulation is unlikely to materialize quickly, and several months of negotiations, amendments, and legal examination are probable before any definitive agreement is reached.
US warns UK on free speech
U.S. Ambassador Warren Stephens warned that free speech is increasingly under strain in the UK, delivering his remarks before an audience that included Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy.
His comments fit within a broader pattern of U.S. concern, as senior American officials have repeatedly noted what they regard as a tightening of the boundaries of permissible expression in Britain.
Washington has grown alarmed about the cumulative effect of the UK's expanding hate-speech provisions, the practice of recording “non-crime hate incidents,” and proposed digital-safety rules that grant wide discretion to state agencies and large platforms.
From the U.S. point of view, these measures suggest a shift away from the free-expression tradition that has long anchored the transatlantic partnership.
Stephens’s intervention therefore reads less as an isolated rebuke and more as a diplomatic signal that the UK’s current trajectory could erode the democratic principles both countries claim to defend.
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What happened today:
1640 - Portugal restores its independence from Spain, ending the Iberian Union and acclaiming João IV as king. 1913 - Crete is formally annexed by Greece after gaining self-rule from the Ottoman Empire. 1918 - Iceland becomes a sovereign state in personal union with the Danish crown under the Act of Union. 1918 - The Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (later Yugoslavia) is proclaimed. 1955 - Rosa Parks refuses to give up her bus seat in Montgomery, triggering the Montgomery Bus Boycott. 1958 - The Central African Republic attains self-rule within the French Union. 1959 - Twelve nations sign the Antarctic Treaty, demilitarizing the continent. 1969 - The United States holds its first Vietnam-era draft lottery. 1973 - Papua New Guinea gains self-government from Australia. 1991 - Ukrainians vote overwhelmingly for independence from the Soviet Union. 2009 - The Treaty of Lisbon enters into force, reforming the European Union. 2019 - A man in Wuhan, China, develops symptoms and becomes the index case of COVID-19.



