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The arrival of U.S. envoys in Moscow produced no movement toward a Ukraine settlement, despite a five-hour meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Moscow said no compromises were found and that a Trump-Putin meeting is not planned. Putin coupled the talks with warnings to Europe and threats of expanded strikes against Ukrainian vessels, even as Russia’s economy shows strain, with Rosneft reporting a sharp fall in income. EU states agreed to ban Russian gas imports by autumn 2027.

China and Russia deepened their strategic alignment at strategic consultations in Moscow involving Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, indicating that any settlement on Ukraine will require Beijing’s backing. In Dublin, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed Western capitals for binding security guarantees, warning that vague assurances risk enabling a future Russian attack.

In Washington, Trump unveiled a child-savings initiative funded in part by Michael Dell and challenged the validity of autopen-signed Biden documents. He also pardoned former Honduras president Juan Orlando Hernández, aggravating political tensions in Tegucigalpa. Additional developments included Republican plans to extend ACA subsidies, Israeli demands for a Syrian buffer zone, a controlled reopening of Rafah, and rising NATO unease after ambiguous U.S. remarks.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

U.S. envoys in Moscow fail to push through a peace deal

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of President Donald Trump, arrived yesterday in Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin, marking the most senior Trump-aligned contact with the Kremlin since the Alaska meeting in August.

  • Their visit comes at a delicate moment. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, landed in Moscow within hours of their arrival (more on that below). There is no indication that the two delegations met formally, although photographs on social media showed them in the same waiting room before their respective meetings with Putin.

  • The timing may be coincidental, although it also suggests parallel diplomatic tracks as major powers position themselves for the next phase of the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s talks with Witkoff and Kushner in the Kremlin lasted five hours, ending without progress. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s aide, said “no compromises have been found so far, and a meeting between the Russian and U.S. leaders is not planned at this moment”. Ushakov added that “the specific wording of the U.S. peace plan was not discussed at Putin’s meeting with Witkoff”. Moscow received four additional documents beyond Trump’s initial plan, he said. The talks also covered “the future of economic cooperation between Russia and the United States”. Ushakov refused to provide further details, noting that both sides agreed not to disclose the substance of the negotiations.

In a public address earlier in the day, Putin set out Russia’s stance toward Europe and the incoming U.S. administration. “Russia does not intend to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is ready right now,” he said. He added that European governments were hindering the Trump administration’s effort to achieve a settlement and were advancing a peace proposal on Ukraine that Moscow considers unacceptable. The remarks appeared calibrated to shape the context in which any Trump-led diplomatic initiative will unfold, drawing Russia’s red lines before Washington presents its own ideas.

Putin also addressed the recent rise in Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers and cargo vessels carrying Russian goods in the Black Sea and off the coast of Senegal. He said Russia would “increase strikes on facilities and Ukrainian vessels” and would take action against tankers from countries that Moscow believes are assisting Kyiv. Such measures, if enacted, could widen the maritime confrontation and heighten insurance and shipping risks across the region, particularly for carriers without clear alignment.

Russia’s domestic economic strains are, meanwhile, becoming more apparent. Rosneft, the country’s largest oil producer, reported that its net income between January and September fell by 70 percent year-on-year to 277 billion roubles ($3.57bn), citing high interest rates, weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble. The results highlight the pressure on Russia’s energy-dependent economy as the country seeks to sustain a prolonged war and expand its military output. And EU lawmakers and member states announced early on Wednesday that they had reached agreement on a plan to ban all imports of Russian gas into the European Union by autumn 2027.

With U.S., Chinese and Russian envoys all in Moscow, and with the Kremlin projecting military resolve while confronting economic stress, the city has become the setting for a consequential round of great-power diplomacy, coordinated or otherwise.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

Cold War 2.0

It’s America vs China & everyone else needs to choose a side

China and Russia tighten strategic alignment

The 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultations in Moscow, led by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu, was orchestrated to present a unified geopolitical front at the same moment that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting Vladimir Putin.

The timing sent a pointed message to Washington. Moscow may receive American intermediaries, but it does not negotiate its core interests outside China’s view, which gives Beijing an informal co-signature on any prospective arrangement over Ukraine.

A notable addition to the communiqué was a coordinated stance on Japan, with both sides pledging to “uphold the fruits of victory in World War II” and to “counter any attempts by Japanese militarism to make a comeback”.

The positioning of Shoigu’s reaffirmation of support for China’s positions on Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong immediately after the Japan passage appeared deliberate, since it connected Japan’s recent rhetoric about Taiwan to a shared China-Russia red line.

  • On Ukraine, Beijing quietly echoed Russia’s expansive interpretation of the conflict’s “root causes”, although it maintained sufficient ambiguity to preserve a future role in mediation.

Overall, the meeting communicated to the incoming administration of President Donald Trump that any settlement on Ukraine will require Beijing’s agreement, formalized a joint front against Japan’s evolving security posture, and strengthened the narrative of a steady and ascending Sino-Russian partnership resistant to U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between the two powers.

Zelenskyy presses for firmer guarantees in Dublin

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered one of his most pointed appeals in recent months to Ireland’s parliament, urging Western governments to stop “playing games behind Ukraine’s back” and to set out clear, binding security guarantees to prevent another Russian attack.

He warned that the war cannot be concluded on vague assurances or shifting political signals, and insisted that “nothing should be decided without Ukraine”, particularly in discussions about a post-war security framework. Zelenskyy argued that Russia’s objectives have not materially changed despite its failure to occupy the country, and cautioned that without concrete guarantees Moscow may attempt a “third invasion” within the decade. He highlighted the human cost already borne by Ukraine, referring to soldiers returning to civilian life and to those who will never return, and said the country cannot endure a cycle in which Russia rebuilds its forces and launches renewed offensives.

He welcomed the willingness of the U.S. to act as a security guarantor, although he stressed that Ukraine requires specific commitments rather than broad declarations. EU accession, he added, forms a central pillar of Ukraine’s long-term security, and he pressed Brussels for a timetable, asking, “Will we join the EU this century or the next?” Clarity, he said, is the least Ukrainians should expect after resisting Russian aggression with the help of Europe and the U.S.

Security-guarantee negotiations: The U.S., the U.K., France, Germany and several EU states have been working on a “framework document” that would define long-term support for Ukraine, including weapons supply, intelligence sharing and military training. These discussions accelerated after officials in Washington signaled an openness to a more formal security commitment that would fall short of NATO membership. Kyiv maintains that only enforceable guarantees will deter future Russian aggression, and that symbolic gestures will not suffice.

The EU dimension: Ukraine has pursued accelerated EU accession since 2022, casting membership as both a political anchor and a form of security. While several EU governments support rapid progress, others prefer a slower, multi-year process. Zelenskyy’s pointed question about whether membership will arrive “this century or the next” challenged European hesitation and the risk that prolonged uncertainty may weaken Ukraine’s strategic position.

Ireland’s role: Ireland, although not a NATO member, has been active in humanitarian and reconstruction initiatives and has supported EU sanctions on Russia. Zelenskyy’s decision to deliver a forceful address in Dublin reflects Ireland’s influence within EU debates and its position as a sympathetic, neutral venue for Ukraine’s diplomatic outreach.

Further NATO doubts after Bessent’s remark

The absence of the U.S. Secretary of State from today’s NATO meeting, the first no-show since 1999, has heightened anxiety across the alliance.

It comes as Russia increases pressure along NATO’s northeastern flank, with border probes, drone overflights, hybrid disruptions, and sabotage that several member states now describe as “incursions” intended to test collective resolve.

Against this backdrop, Secretary Bessent’s televised comment, in relation to Russian incursions into NATO countries, that “the U.S. is not going to get involved with troops or any of that, we will sell the Europeans weapons” carries unusual weight.

His phrasing, whether deliberate or careless, appears to contradict the plain meaning of Article 5, which binds all members to treat an attack on one as an attack on all. Since 1949, successive U.S. administrations have avoided even the suggestion of selective engagement, recognizing that NATO’s deterrent depends on the credibility of American military support.

  • Bessent’s formulation suggests a more transactional posture in which Washington might restrict its role to armaments and financing rather than direct military involvement, even in the event of Russian aggression.

If interpreted literally, the statement risks signaling to Moscow that the alliance’s most powerful member is reconsidering its commitments. It may prompt additional Russian probing, particularly in the Baltic region where NATO’s tripwire forces are thinly stretched. European governments, meanwhile, are likely to read Bessent’s words as encouragement to accelerate rearmament and expand strategic autonomy. Some may interpret it as confirmation that the U.S. is shifting from guarantor to supplier.

Whether this reflects an actual policy shift or merely an undisciplined remark remains uncertain. The White House has not clarified the comment, and U.S. officials have said informally that Article 5 is unchanged. Even so, the ambiguity revives precisely the doubts about NATO that Europe increasingly feels. Deterrence relies on clarity, and mixed signals, even if unintended, weaken the alliance at a moment of rising strain.

Trump Administration

Move fast and break things

USCIS halts immigration benefits for nationals of 19 countries

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has issued formal guidance on the newly announced immigration pause.

Under the directive, all immigration benefits for nationals of 19 designated countries are suspended indefinitely. The affected jurisdictions, drawn from Presidential Proclamation 10949, are Afghanistan, Burma (Myanmar), Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

  • The suspension covers the full range of USCIS-administered benefits, including naturalization, employment authorization, adjustment of status, and other routine petitions.

  • The agency notes that processing will not resume until further instructions are issued by the USCIS Director.

The guidance also confirms that affirmative asylum applications are frozen for individuals of any nationality.

  • Applicants may still file, although USCIS will not schedule interviews, issue decisions, or advance cases while the pause remains in effect.

  • Defensive asylum claims lodged in immigration court fall outside USCIS authority, although they may be influenced by parallel measures adopted by the Department of Justice.

The announcement represents an unusually wide-reaching halt that affects both adjudications and the intake pipeline.

It also prompts questions about backlogs, statutory timelines, and the possibility of further exemptions or clarifications, particularly for applicants with urgent status needs or humanitarian claims. Additional details are expected once the department sets out its implementation plan and any potential review mechanisms.

Trump unveils child-savings plan backed by Michael Dell

Following a Cabinet meeting at midday yesterday, President Trump announced a new initiative aimed at providing long-term financial support to young Americans.

Trump said that tens of millions of children will receive up to $1,000 each, funded by a donation from Michael Dell and seed money from the administration. Dell has pledged $6.25 billion toward the effort. Under the plan, accounts will be created at birth, invested over time, and made accessible when recipients turn 18. The intention, Trump said, is to give young Americans a financial head start as they enter adulthood.

Dell’s contribution will cover children under 10 in ZIP codes with average household incomes of $150,000 or less. The accounts, to be known as Trump Accounts, will launch on 4 July 2026, coinciding with the 250th anniversary of the United States.

Trump challenges validity of autopen-signed Biden documents

President Donald Trump issued a statement on social media declaring that all documents signed by Joe Biden using an autopen “are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect”.

The declaration amounts to a sweeping challenge to the legitimacy of executive actions taken during the Biden presidency, since the autopen, a device that reproduces a president’s signature for routine or time-sensitive documents, has been used by several administrations. Trump presented the move as a corrective measure, arguing that only a handwritten presidential signature carries constitutional authority.

Legal scholars noted that no court has ever invalidated an executive act on the grounds of autopen use, and that Congress and federal agencies have long treated autopen-signed documents as valid.

The statement appears intended to cast doubt on a broad range of Biden-era decisions, from administrative orders to standard authorizations, and potentially gives the Trump administration leverage in disputes over regulatory continuity and the scope of inherited executive power.

House Republicans prepare short extension of ACA subsidies

House Republicans are set to advance a short-term extension of the Affordable Care Act’s expiring subsidies, a move shaped by political calculation and fiscal caution. The enhanced subsidies, introduced during the pandemic to reduce premiums for low- and middle-income households, are due to lapse at the end of the year.

  • Their expiration would trigger steep increases in premiums for millions of Americans, a prospect few lawmakers wish to confront before an election year.

The stopgap suggests Republicans are not prepared to endorse a long-term renewal, which they argue would cement pandemic-era spending levels they have long resisted. A temporary extension provides time to negotiate broader changes to health-policy rules next year, including revisions to insurance-market regulations and cost-control measures. It also prevents Democrats from portraying the lapse as a unilateral Republican decision to raise healthcare costs for working families.

Democrats are likely to accept the brief extension, since it avoids the immediate shock of a subsidy cliff.

The decision, however, ensures a fresh battle in early 2026, when lawmakers will again face the choice of making the subsidies permanent or trading them for concessions elsewhere in the legislative agenda.

U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy

America First

Trump pardon impacts Honduras politics

President Donald Trump has pardoned former Honduras president Juan Orlando Hernández. Hernández was released from a U.S. prison on Monday night. The pardon erased his conviction for drug trafficking. Hernández, once seen in Washington as a reliable partner, had been serving a 45-year sentence for running a cocaine network through Honduras.

The decision has sent tremors through Central America, where Hernández’s return reopens long-standing debates about corruption, security, and the reach of U.S. courts.

The timing is politically charged. 

Ruling-party candidate Rixi Moncada, who finished third in the preliminary presidential count, has said she will not accept the results. She claims that procedural violations and irregularities marred the tally, and her refusal threatens to weaken the already fragile credibility of the electoral process.

Moncada’s position increases the likelihood of an extended institutional confrontation, particularly as opposition groups signal they may embrace her accusations. With Hernández’s abrupt release dominating political discourse and sharpening partisan divides, Honduras now confronts two overlapping crises: a disputed election and a divisive pardon that revives public anger over impunity, criminality, and foreign judicial interference.

The Middle East

Birthplace of civilization

Israel sets new demands for a Syrian buffer zone

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sharpened his language toward Syria, setting out the most far-reaching security demands in years. He said Israel seeks a demilitarized buffer zone running from the outskirts of Damascus to Mount Hermon, a stretch of territory that would place much of southern Syria under implicit Israeli control.

Netanyahu said Israel’s priorities are uncomplicated: to protect communities along the northern frontier, to prevent the “entrenchment of terrorists and hostile activities,” and to safeguard the Druze population on both sides of the border. He paired these remarks with a pointed warning that Israel will act alone if required, saying the state will “stand by our principles in any case.”

The terms he set out are far-reaching and hard for any sovereign state to accept.

Netanyahu said an agreement with Damascus remains possible if Syria accepts these principles, arguing that talks could proceed “in a positive atmosphere and with understanding.”

Netanyahu’s remark appears optimistic rather than practical. The new Syrian government has shown little appetite for ceding its territory.

Rafah crossing to reopen for outbound travel

The Israeli military said that the Rafah Border Crossing will reopen in the coming days, although only for residents leaving the Gaza Strip for Egypt. The decision was approved by the political leadership in Jerusalem after weeks of discussion over humanitarian corridors and security coordination with regional partners.

Under the plan, the crossing will not resume commercial traffic or two-way movement. Instead, it will function as a tightly managed exit point for civilians who have passed security checks agreed with Egyptian authorities.

The crossing is expected to operate under a European Union monitoring system, reviving parts of the EU Border Assistance Mission that oversaw Rafah in the mid-2000s.

Representatives of the Palestinian Authority will also take part, marking a modest return of PA administrative involvement at a site that has long fallen outside its effective control.

The arrangement reflects a broader effort to create an internationally supervised mechanism while excluding Hamas from operational roles at the border.

Cairo has offered no public timetable, although Egyptian officials remain in close contact with Israel and the EU regarding the security, screening, and humanitarian procedures needed to activate the plan.

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What happened today:

1800 - United States presidential election produces Electoral College tie between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. 1854 - Battle of the Eureka Stockade pits Australian gold miners against colonial troops at Ballarat. 1912 - Balkan League and Ottoman Empire sign armistice temporarily halting the First Balkan War. 1925 - Anglo-Irish agreement formalizes the Partition of Ireland and confirms the border. 1938 - Nazi Germany issues decree on the utilization of Jewish property as part of Aryanization policies. 1967 - First successful human heart transplant is performed at Groote Schuur Hospital in Cape Town. 1971 - Pakistan launches pre-emptive air strikes on India, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. 1979 - Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini becomes the first Supreme Leader of Iran under the new constitution. 1984 - Bhopal disaster releases toxic gas from a Union Carbide pesticide plant, killing and injuring thousands. 1989 - President George H. W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev meet at the Malta Summit and signal the end of the Cold War. 1994 - Taiwan holds its first full local elections with direct elections for key provincial and mayoral posts. 1997 - Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines is signed in Ottawa, Canada.

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