In Washington, officials are examining options for a negotiated Venezuelan transition, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio proposing Qatar as a potential refuge for President Nicolas Maduro. Travel advisories, airline suspensions and Iran’s evacuation of its diplomats reflect mounting concern that conditions in Venezuela may deteriorate rapidly. NATO governments agreed to expand financing for American weapons for Ukraine, committing €1.15 billion (US$1.34 billion) to accelerate air-defense and long-range strike deliveries. In Asia, China and Japan clashed again near the Senkaku Islands, after a Chinese Coast Guard vessel struck a Japanese fishing boat. The incident added to a steady rise in maritime friction shaped by competing territorial claims and Beijing’s more assertive posture. Israel’s political arena grew more fractious. Yair Lapid claimed victory after the Knesset endorsed President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, although the governing coalition boycotted the vote to avoid lending support. In Lebanon, talks with Israel entered a more political phase with the appointment of Ambassador Simon Karam, while Prime Minister Tamam Salam publicly urged Hezbollah to disarm amid fears of escalation with Israel. In Yemen, UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council forces seized key sites in Hadramawt, challenging Saudi-linked units. Meanwhile, Australia and Canada signaled tighter online-identity rules, reflecting a broader global shift toward greater digital oversight and the end of internet privacy. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
U.S. signals on Venezuela’s future
American officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have floated Qatar as a possible destination for Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, a sign that Washington is seeking an orderly resolution to the country’s political impasse as the U.S. military increases its presence in waters near Venezuela.
The idea reflects long-standing doubts in Washington about Maduro’s durability and a view among some policymakers that a negotiated exit, rather than a sudden collapse or a military intervention, would limit regional disruption.
Warnings to travelers have multiplied. Sweden and Norway have advised their citizens to avoid Venezuela, citing a deteriorating security climate and the risk of abrupt border closures. Numerous airlines have suspended flights after President Donald Trump’s social media message last week warning operators against entering Venezuelan airspace, a note many carriers interpreted as a sign that conditions could deteriorate without notice. Iran’s decision to evacuate its diplomats has added to international unease, since Tehran has been among Caracas’s most loyal partners. Its withdrawal suggests rising concern that the crisis may be moving into a more volatile stage.
Taken together, these moves indicate a broader global adjustment to Venezuela’s trajectory, with governments and airlines preparing for a moment when diplomatic or commercial engagement becomes difficult, or impossible, at short notice.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s America vs China & everyone else needs to choose a side
NATO states expand financing of American weapons for Ukraine
Four NATO countries have agreed to finance additional American weapons packages for Ukraine, providing a combined €1.15 billion (US$1.34 billion) as of 3 December 2025. Norway will supply €500 million (US$583 million), the Netherlands €250 million (US$292 million), Canada €200 million (US$233 million) and Germany €200 million (US$233 million).
The funds are intended to accelerate deliveries of U.S.-made air defenses, artillery shells and long-range strike systems, meeting immediate battlefield requirements and distributing the financial burden of support more evenly across the alliance.
China and Japan in contested waters
China and Japan’s coast guards have confronted one another again near the disputed Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyu Islands.
The latest clash followed China’s claim that a Japanese fishing vessel had entered waters that Beijing asserts are part of its territory. Japanese officials reported that a Chinese Coast Guard vessel then struck a Japanese fishing boat within waters administered by Japan, in the small island chain that sits just northeast of Taiwan.
Tokyo described the incident as a violation of its sovereignty and issued a formal protest. Beijing repeated its long-standing claim to the islands, known in Chinese as the Diaoyu, and insisted that its patrols were lawful.
The encounter added to a steady rise in maritime friction between the two countries, shaped by competing territorial assertions, the higher tempo of Chinese patrols, and the broader regional contest for influence in the East China Sea.
Both governments have reasons to avoid escalation, although each sees the islands as a test of national resolve.
The area has become a symbol of Japan’s security posture and its partnership with the U.S., and a sign of China’s intention to reshape the regional balance.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Lapid claims victory as PM’s coalition boycotts vote on Trump’s Gaza plan
Leader of the centrist party Yesh Atid and former prime minister Yair Lapid announced that “The Knesset overwhelmingly approved my proposal to endorse and adopt President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan on Gaza with a vote of 39 in favor and 0 against. Israel now officially endorses and adopts President Trump’s plan.”
The tally is accurate, although the politics surrounding it are far from straightforward.
Indeed, the entire coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walked out of the Knesset plenary before the vote, boycotting the session. Their absence ensured no votes were cast against the motion, allowing Lapid to present the outcome as unanimous among those present.
The move appears aimed at denying Lapid, the opposition leader, a genuine political win while avoiding a direct vote against a plan linked to Trump, who remains popular among many on the Israeli right and personally close to Netanyahu.
The episode exposes the divide within Israel’s political arena. Lapid has framed the vote as formal endorsement of Trump’s Gaza blueprint, while the coalition’s maneuver points to its reluctance to associate itself publicly with any external proposal at a moment when negotiations remain fluid and Netanyahu is seeking to preserve diplomatic flexibility. The boycott also reflects a deepening mistrust between government and opposition over how to shape any post-war settlement in Gaza and how closely Israel should align itself with American initiatives that emerge outside official channels.
In practical terms, the vote does not bind the government. It is a declaratory measure, and the coalition’s refusal to participate indicates that it does not regard the resolution as imposing any obligation.
Even so, the vote bolsters Lapid’s attempt to present Trump’s plan as the basis for a broad national consensus, creating an unusual contrast between an opposition that supported a U.S.-backed framework and a governing coalition that declined to vote at all.
Lebanon opens a new phase of talks with Israel
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry says that Beirut has entered “a new phase of negotiations with Israel,” shifting the process from a narrow military and technical track to one with political contours.
For the first time since 1991, Israel and Lebanon have held direct civilian talks. U.S. Envoy, Morgan Ortagus, chaired the talks.
The appointment of Ambassador Simon Karam yesterday as head of the Lebanese delegation in the ceasefire supervision meetings replaces the lower-level security liaison mechanism that has been in place since the 2024 truce.
His selection is widely viewed as a response to a long-standing U.S. request that the discussions expand beyond managing ceasefire incidents to address the political conditions along the frontier.
Karam attended talks yesterday, in the border town of Naqoura, where a representative, Uri Resnick, from the Israeli National Security Council, was also present.
The next meeting will be held on 19 December.
Although Lebanon and Israel remain formally at war, the decision signals a cautious readiness in Beirut to explore diplomatic ground that had previously been avoided.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has recently indicated that he is willing to consider political engagement to reinforce the fragile ceasefire and to shape a more durable security arrangement on the border. Washington has argued that a lasting reduction in cross-border fire requires more than technical de-escalation, and that a political channel is essential.
The latest move does not amount to peace negotiations and no authority has been granted for treaty-level talks.
Lebanon’s political blocs remain divided on the scope of any engagement, and Hezbollah maintains the ability to block any step toward normalization.
Even so, the introduction of a senior diplomat into the process is the clearest indication so far that Beirut is testing whether the talks can move beyond crisis management and develop into a more structured, if still limited, political dialogue.
Salam calls for Hezbollah to disarm as tensions rise
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam yesterday said Hezbollah must surrender its weapons, describing disarmament as a central element of Lebanon’s long-delayed state-building effort.
Salam argued that Hezbollah’s arsenal has neither deterred Israel nor protected Lebanon, noting that repeated conflicts have brought severe destruction to Lebanese territory without altering the strategic balance.
He said the state has now reclaimed authority over decisions of war and peace, which he cast as vital for restoring institutional sovereignty and limiting the influence of non-state actors over national policy.
Salam added that Beirut had received Israeli messages warning of a potential escalation, although no deadline was conveyed. He said foreign envoys who recently visited the Lebanese capital “assess that the situation is dangerous and prone to escalation,” a view that adds urgency to attempts to strengthen state authority and avoid further deterioration along the southern frontier.
STC advances in Yemen’s Hadramawt
UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) units have expanded their campaign across Hadramawt, capturing key sites in Sayoun, including the airport, the Presidential Palace and guest house, and the main government complex.
The move challenges what remains of internationally recognized authority in that region.
Footage from the city shows Hamdan, the son of Ali Abdullah al-Kathiri, the influential president of the STC’s National Assembly, standing beside Fadi Baoom, another member of a prominent Hadrami family long associated with Hirak, the Southern Movement.
Their appearance appears intended to present the advance as both a military operation and a locally rooted political effort, part of a broader attempt to signal support from Hadrami elites whose backing has often been fragmented.
The seizure of state facilities, if maintained, represents a significant escalation in the contest for authority in eastern Yemen, placing pressure on the Presidential Leadership Council and complicating Saudi efforts to maintain a unified security structure in Hadramawt.
The STC’s forces are facing units aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, notably the Saudi-backed First Military Region and associated security elements, many of which retain links to the Islah-aligned networks once built by Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar.
The STC has long viewed these formations, along with Islah-affiliated tribal and political figures, as impediments to consolidating control across the south, and as too close to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Although Saudi Arabia is not directly involved in the fighting, its sponsorship of the Wadi Hadramawt security order makes Riyadh an indirect counterparty, since the STC’s advance runs against Saudi preferences even if clashes remain formally between Yemeni factions.
There is no indication that the Houthis are involved.
As tensions rise and UAE-backed STC units push to take control of the broader Hadramawt region, a senior Saudi military and security delegation led by Major General Mohammed bin Ubaid has arrived at Riyan International Airport in Mukalla.
Free Speech and Digital Privacy
Under threat worldwide
Australia weighs tighter online controls
Australian Communications Minister Anika Wells has declined to dismiss the prospect of a future ban on virtual private networks, describing such a step as “technically achievable” but “extreme.”
The government’s current position, she said, is not to intrude completely on how major technology firms operate in Australia, a formulation that leaves open the possibility of stricter measures as the regulatory climate changes.
Her comments come as officials acknowledge that Australia’s new age-verification regime could allow parents’ social-media accounts to be restricted or blocked if they knowingly permit their children to use them, a point confirmed by eSafety representatives during a Senate hearing.
The appetite for more intrusive verification rules is not limited to Australia.
In Canada, lobbying by Meta appears to be nudging policymakers toward a system that would require government-linked identification to download applications, placing Canada in line with the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia, all of which have enacted or advanced legislation that compels some form of online identity disclosure.
The broader shift toward compulsory verification signals a decisive turn in digital governance. What began as a child-safety effort has evolved into a framework that expands state oversight of routine online activity, reducing the space for anonymous engagement and marking the end of an era when users could move through the internet with minimal official scrutiny.
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What happened today:
1110 - Baldwin I of Jerusalem and Sigurd the Crusader capture the port city of Sidon during the Crusades. 1259 - Treaty of Paris signed between France and England, redefining English territorial claims in Europe. 1533 - Ivan IV is proclaimed grand prince of Moscow. 1534 - Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent occupies Baghdad, consolidating Ottoman rule in Mesopotamia. 1563 - Council of Trent holds its final session, cementing doctrines of the Catholic Counter-Reformation. 1992 - President George H. W. Bush orders U.S. troops to Somalia for Operation Restore Hope. 2005 - Mass demonstrations in Hong Kong demand democratic reform and universal suffrage.



