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Thai airstrikes intensify along the Cambodian border

Following the eruption of fighting along the Thai–Cambodian frontier on 7 December, F-16A fighter jets of the Royal Thai Air Force carried out a series of precision strikes on the Chong Arn Ma Casino complex, located just across the border from Nam Yuen District in Ubon Ratchathani Province in southern Thailand. 

The abandoned casino, situated on the Thai–Cambodian frontier, has reportedly been converted into a command-and-control site and munitions depot for elements of the Cambodian Army. The Chong Arn Ma compound, together with several derelict resorts that line the frontier, has become a recurring flashpoint. These locations were also targeted during the previous round of fighting in July. 

Thailand’s Second Army Area reported engagements at Chong Arn Ma, Hill 677, Huai Ta Maria, Khana, and Prasat Ta Muen. The sites lie within about 10–30 km (6.2–18.6 miles) of one another, forming a compact belt of contested ground that has long seen overlapping patrols, smuggling routes, and unresolved territorial claims.

Conditions for civilians are worsening. Thai authorities in Sa Kaeo Province began evacuations at 7 a.m., with artillery fire and air operations posing increasing danger to border communities. Local officials are relocating families from exposed areas and establishing temporary shelters.

Officials have limited their public remarks to immediate response measures, and it remains unclear whether Thailand plans to broaden its operations beyond the immediate border zone.

Move fast and break things

Consumer sentiment falls to near-record lows

Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan’s long-running survey, is hovering near the weakest levels recorded since the index was created in the early 1950s. The latest reading is only a fraction above the all-time low of 50.0 reached in June 2022.

A level near 50 signals that households view both their financial situation and the broader economic climate with deep pessimism. Respondents report deteriorating expectations for income, purchasing power, and business conditions. High prices and elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. Although the labor market remains relatively firm, the survey indicates that inflation fatigue and concerns about declining real wages have worn down confidence more sharply than in previous downturns.

The scale of the decline is notable because it coincides with mixed headline indicators: growth has remained positive, unemployment is historically low, and corporate earnings have not collapsed.

The gap between objective economic measures and household perceptions has widened over the past three years, suggesting that consumers place considerable emphasis on persistent price pressures and uncertainty about future stability.

Historically, only a few episodes, the recessions of 1980 and 1982, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic shock, have pushed sentiment to similarly depressed levels. The current figures place household confidence once again within that narrow band of crisis-era pessimism.

It’s America vs China & everyone else needs to choose a side

More detail on drones that shadowed Zelenskyy’s arrival in Dublin

During the arrival of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin on 1 December, Irish authorities detected up to five large, military-grade drones operating in the Irish Sea along the expected flight path of his aircraft. 

Additional details are now emerging about this incident.

The drones appeared shortly before the plane landed (the aircraft landed early), prompting a major security alert and the rapid deployment of naval and air-surveillance assets. An Irish navy vessel, LÉ William Butler Yeats, reported the drones circling above it near Howth, suggesting that the operation involved coordination across both land and sea.

Their size, endurance and design placed them well beyond the realm of hobbyist recreational drones, but rather professional military drones, and operating five such craft simultaneously would have required multiple pilots, spotters and counter-surveillance teams.

The incident occurred against a broader backdrop of rising concern across Europe about the vulnerability of undersea cables, energy infrastructure and air corridors to hostile unmanned systems.

In recent years, a sequence of sabotage attempts and unexplained incursions in the North Sea, Baltic and North Atlantic has led Western intelligence agencies to warn of an expanding campaign of hybrid activity that targets European infrastructure.

The timing and precision of the Irish Sea operation have therefore intensified scrutiny of who might have been responsible. No government has accepted responsibility publicly, although only a state actor, or a proxy with state-level resources, could have mounted an operation of this complexity. The investigation now focuses on the drones’ launch origin, command links, and whether the incursion was intended as a direct attack, reconnaissance, intimidation, or a probe of Irish and European defenses.

Birthplace of civilization

Congress weighs repeal of Caesar Act & new conditions on Lebanon

On the anniversary of the fall of Damascus last year Congress has moved to fold a full repeal of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act into an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, which is expected to come to a vote this week.

Under the amendment, the U.S. President must submit a report to Congress every six months assessing progress on conditions that Washington considers essential for any normalization.

The amendment also introduces new provisions related to Lebanon. It authorizes the Pentagon to reassess military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces if the institution is deemed “unwilling to act” against Hezbollah’s arsenal.

Taken together, the changes reveal an attempt to recalibrate U.S. leverage in both Syria and Lebanon through a mix of sanctions relief, conditionality, and oversight.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Macron’s warns China on trade

French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be compelled to adopt “strong measures” against China, including possible tariffs, if Beijing does not address its widening trade surplus with the bloc.

His remarks came immediately after a three-day visit to China during which he received unusually expansive access to Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader not only hosted formal talks in Beijing but also accompanied Macron on a high-profile cultural excursion to Chengdu, a gesture rarely extended to foreign heads of state. It was, by diplomatic standards, an elaborate display of personal attention and ceremonial warmth.

The timing of Macron’s comments has raised eyebrows in Beijing. Having spent several days being courted by Beijing, he returned to France and, within twenty-four hours, threatened China with trade measures that align closely with the tougher line pursued by Washington. The contrast was striking. President Donald Trump, whose diplomatic style is often regarded as unconventional, nonetheless secured a face-saving trade arrangement with Xi after their meeting in Busan last month, which suggested that direct engagement will yield tangible outcomes when grievances are aired openly.

Macron’s approach risks satisfying no one. Beijing may feel that its hospitality was repaid with public admonition (and thus public loss of face), and European partners may wonder why a president who had just enjoyed extraordinary access chose not to use that moment to negotiate.

Support for One Nation rises in Australia as Coalition slips

Support for the opposition Coalition has slipped as the right wing populist party, One Nation, records a sharp rise, according to the latest Resolve Strategic poll, which also shows a majority of voters now favor significant cuts to immigration.

The survey indicates that One Nation’s gains come largely at the expense of the right of center Coalition, particularly among voters in outer suburban and regional areas who have grown increasingly skeptical of both major parties.

The movement reflects a broader pattern seen in other advanced economies (especially Europe), where strain on housing supply and greatly increased post-pandemic migration have fueled discontent. Australia’s sharp rebound in net overseas migration, driven by international students, temporary workers and new arrivals seeking permanent settlement, has become a focal point for political frustration.

The poll’s findings will unsettle the major parties. For the Coalition, stagnating support despite cost-of-living pressures signals a failure to consolidate the opposition vote. For the governing Labor Party, the public’s growing appetite for tighter migration settings creates pressure to accelerate its own recalibration of intake levels, announced earlier this year but still viewed by many voters as insufficient.

One Nation’s rise is notable not only for its scale but also for its speed. The party has seized on themes of cultural change, population management and economic strain, framing immigration cuts as central to restoring equilibrium. Whether this represents a temporary protest vote or a more durable shift in political alignment will depend on how both major parties respond, particularly on housing supply and the pace of population growth.

The results point to a more fractious electoral environment in which migration policy, once treated as a technocratic issue, is becoming a defining political battleground. 

One Nation’s ascent has now taken another dramatic turn with Pauline Hanson announcing that Barnaby Joyce has joined the party. Joyce will sit as a One Nation member in the lower house until the next election, after which he intends to run for a Senate seat in New South Wales.

Joyce’s defection is one of the most consequential realignments in recent Australian politics. A National Party veteran and former deputy prime minister, he built his career on rural advocacy, economic nationalism and a populist rhetorical style that has long appealed to conservative voters outside the major cities.

Known for championing regional industries and for his combative approach to Canberra politics, Joyce often acted as a bridge between mainstream conservatives and more populist currents. His shift into One Nation formalizes a trajectory many observers had anticipated as he grew increasingly vocal about migration levels, cultural change and the perceived neglect of regional communities.

His move also represents a significant blow to the Coalition. Joyce’s presence in the Nationals gave the party a distinctive, regionally focused identity. His departure removes one of its most recognizable figures at a moment when support in rural electorates is drifting toward smaller right-leaning parties. It also hands One Nation a high-profile parliamentarian with national name recognition, parliamentary experience and an established constituency, giving the party credibility it has often lacked.

Strategically, Joyce’s defection deepens the pressure on the Coalition to recalibrate its migration settings and broaden its message beyond cost-of-living concerns. One Nation now holds a symbolic bridgehead in the lower house and a potent recruitment asset: a former deputy prime minister arguing that the major parties have lost touch with regional voters. That message is likely to resonate in electorates where economic strain, housing shortages and rapid demographic change have become defining political issues.

Joyce’s arrival marks an evolution of One Nation from essentially a right-wing populist protest movement to a more structured parliamentary force.

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