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What you need to know

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 stands out as one of the most assertive congressional interventions in U.S. force-posture policy and Ukraine support in recent memory.

Building on earlier provisions intended to limit troop withdrawals from South Korea, the bill strengthens statutory constraints on any substantial reduction of U.S. forces overseas.

It blocks the Defense Department from lowering the American military presence in Europe below 76,000 troops for more than 45 days unless the administration certifies that the change aligns with U.S. and NATO security interests, and it similarly forbids cutting the U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula below 28,500 troops without a formal assurance that deterrence will remain intact and that key allies have been fully consulted.

The legislation also safeguards strategic command roles, including the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, which cannot be relinquished without congressional consent.

These measures, placed within a must-pass authorization bill, give Congress effective veto power over abrupt drawdowns and reflect its long-held belief that forward-deployed forces are essential to deterring Russia in Europe and North Korea in East Asia.

The law also contains an extensive suite of Ukraine-related provisions that challenge any belief that congressional backing for Kyiv is ebbing. Section 1241 requires a formal assessment by the administration of the threat that Russia poses to the United States and its allies; Section 1242 renews the ban on recognizing Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory; and Section 1243 authorizes $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for this year and next, with the funds available through 2029 and subject to tighter controls to prevent diversion of materiel originally manufactured for Ukraine. Section 1244 requires immediate congressional notification if the administration halts intelligence support to Kyiv. Another element, Section 8363, incorporates the bipartisan Abducted Ukrainian Children Recovery and Accountability Act, which supports operations to return Ukrainian minors taken by Russia.

Taken together, these measures show that Congress intends to reinforce U.S. alliance commitments and to block unilateral strategic retrenchment that could embolden adversaries or unsettle key regions.

It’s America vs China & everyone else needs to choose a side

Lithuania declares emergency after balloon intrusions from Belarus

Lithuania has declared a nationwide state of emergency after a series of airspace incursions by low-altitude balloons launched from Belarus.

Lithuanian officials say the balloons, many of them rudimentary and drifting unpredictably, have repeatedly entered controlled airspace near Vilnius, which compelled the authorities to suspend operations at the capital’s international airport on several occasions. Border-security services believe the devices are likely being used by smuggling networks based in Belarus to move contraband or probe Lithuanian response procedures. It is also possible that elements inside Belarus are exploiting criminal channels to exert political pressure on Vilnius.

The incursions have prompted heightened alerts across Lithuania’s air-defense and law-enforcement agencies because such small, slow-moving objects are difficult to detect and intercept. The government said the emergency measures would improve coordination among the military, aviation authorities, and border guards, and would grant temporary powers to restrict movement in sensitive areas, accelerate investigations, and deploy additional surveillance equipment along the frontier.

Vilnius has accused Minsk of tolerating, if not facilitating, the activity, describing it as part of a broader pattern of hybrid pressure that includes orchestrated migrant flows and information campaigns. Belarus has denied involvement.

The episode adds further strain to relations between the two neighbors at a time of heightened regional tension driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and NATO’s reinforcement of its eastern flank.

Russia prepares for a long war

Russia’s latest presidential decree, signed by Vladimir Putin on 9 December, authorizes the call-up of reservists for 2026 training cycles, a procedural step on paper although politically revealing in context.

Moscow’s mobilization reserve includes former conscripts and ex-servicemen, along with a contracted pool of volunteers that probably numbers over 100,000 personnel. These volunteers form a semi-professional buffer that Russia has relied on since 2022 to replenish depleted units without resorting to a politically fraught general mobilization.

Renewing the decree so far ahead suggests that the Kremlin is preparing for sustained military operations into 2026, particularly if no settlement emerges in Ukraine. Russia presents the measure as routine annual planning.

The early timing, however, combined with heavy battlefield attrition and the expansion of Russia’s defense-industrial output, points to a strategy focused on long-term force generation rather than winding down. It also signals to domestic institutions, including regional governors, military commissariats, and defense enterprises, that mobilization structures must remain in continuous readiness.

This does not amount to a formal decision to escalate, although it indicates that Putin is preparing the state for a protracted conflict, keeping manpower pipelines open and maintaining the legal authority for rapid call-ups if battlefield conditions change.

Chinese and Russian aircraft probe South Korea’s air defense zone

Chinese and Russian military aircraft again entered South Korea’s air defense identification zone, with Seoul stating that roughly 11 bombers and fighters briefly crossed into KADIZ over the eastern and southern seas.

The flights took place alongside a joint Sino-Russian strategic air patrol that Beijing said formed part of its annual cooperation plan.

Although the aircraft did not intrude into South Korea’s sovereign airspace, their unannounced arrival prompted South Korea’s armed forces to scramble fighter jets.

These episodes, which have recurred since 2019, are widely read as coordinated demonstrations of strategic intent, reflecting growing Chinese and Russian assertiveness in Northeast Asia.

Japan protests radar lock by Chinese aircraft

Japan lodged a forceful protest after Chinese Shenyang J-15 fighters operating from the carrier Liaoning repeatedly directed their fire-control radars at Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15J jets southeast of Okinawa on 6 December.

Tokyo reported two episodes of “intermittent radar illumination”, one lasting several minutes in the afternoon and another continuing for about half an hour in the evening, describing the conduct as “extremely dangerous” and a violation of the basic norms that govern safe military aviation.

A fire-control lock is widely regarded as a preliminary step in missile targeting, which heightened concern inside Japan’s Ministry of Defense.

China rejected the charge and said its carrier group was engaged in routine training when Japanese aircraft approached and interfered with operations, a move Beijing argued created the unsafe conditions.

Close encounters are common in the East China Sea, although this appears to be the first publicly acknowledged radar-lock incident between Chinese and Japanese fighters, a development that raises the temperature in an already strained bilateral security environment.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Sudan’s battle for the oilfields

The Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of the Heglig oilfield, the main transit hub for South Sudan’s crude exports to Port Sudan, marks one of the most consequential shifts in Sudan’s war since the paramilitary rebellion began in 2023.

Heglig is more than an oil installation. It is the core of Sudan’s public finances and the central artery through which South Sudan transports the crude that sustains its government.

By taking the site and prompting the withdrawal of staff and army units, the RSF has halted production and placed itself in command of the infrastructure that supports the region’s most valuable revenue stream.

The consequences are immediate and broad. Khartoum loses its final substantial source of foreign currency, worsening an already severe fiscal collapse. The RSF gains considerable leverage, since control of the oilfields provides both financial independence and a potent instrument in any future negotiation.

If the shutdown continues, Sudan and South Sudan may confront deepening economic crises, while the wider region absorbs the effects of disrupted exports, diminished state capacity, and a strengthened non-state actor commanding the most strategic asset in the energy sector.

America First

Trump allows Nvidia to resume controlled chip sales to China

President Donald Trump’s decision to permit Nvidia to export its H200 artificial-intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China represents a carefully managed opening that both Washington and Beijing can present as mutually advantageous.

The arrangement authorizes sales of the powerful, although not cutting-edge, H200 while retaining the prohibition on Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell and Rubin lines.

Trump informed President Xi Jinping that the U.S. will take 25 percent of the revenue from these exports, turning a national-security measure into a regulated commercial channel that generates income for the U.S. and maintains leverage over China’s access to crucial technology.

For Nvidia, renewed entry into the Chinese market restores a major source of demand. For Chinese firms, the decision provides a useful lift in AI processing capacity at a time when domestic alternatives remain limited.

Under threat worldwide

Reddit prepares legal battle over Australia’s youth social-media ban

Global platform Reddit is poised to mount a constitutional challenge to Australia’s new age-limit rules for social media, creating what could become the most consequential confrontation to date between a major technology firm and the government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

The lawsuit is expected as the youth social-media ban takes effect on tomorrow, inflaming political and legal debate around one of Albanese’s headline policies.

The $44 billion platform has hired Perry Herzfeld, SC, a leading constitutional barrister, along with the commercial law firm Thomson Geer. The case is expected to be filed in the High Court within days. It will argue that the restrictions on teenagers infringe the implied freedom of political communication in Australia’s Constitution. Although not a general right to free expression, the implied freedom has long been treated by the High Court as a structural safeguard for political discourse. Reddit is expected to contend that mandatory age limits and related access barriers constitute a disproportionate constraint on young people’s participation in public debate.

Thomson Geer’s role is significant: the firm has frequently acted for X (formerly Twitter) in disputes with the eSafety Commissioner, giving it substantial experience in challenging online-safety decisions and navigating the increasingly fractious relationship between global platforms and Canberra’s regulators.

If lodged, Reddit’s case will be the second challenge to the new regime. Two weeks ago, the Digital Freedom Project, an activist group led by NSW Libertarian Party MLC John Ruddick, filed a High Court action on behalf of 15-year-olds Noah Jones and Macy Neyland. The lawsuit names the Commonwealth, eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman-Grant and Communications and Sport Minister Anika Wells, arguing that the law curtails young people’s ability to communicate, access information and participate in civic life.

Together, the two challenges highlight the strength of industry opposition and the constitutional fragility of Australia’s approach to youth online regulation. A High Court ruling against the government could derail a major Albanese initiative and place firm limits on how far Canberra and other jurisdictions may go in controlling access to digital platforms.

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