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Pax Silica takes shape in Washington

The inaugural Pax Silica meeting took place in Washington, D.C., on 12 December 2025. On that occasion, the Trump administration and partner governments formally launched the initiative with the signing of the Pax Silica Declaration, as officials from Australia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and others gathered to discuss cooperation on securing artificial intelligence capabilities and critical supply chains. Pax Silica has emerged as a guiding concept for the Trump administration’s approach to technology, supply chains, and strategic alignment in the Indo-Pacific.

It is framed as an effort to consolidate a trusted group of key partners capable of sustaining and expanding advanced semiconductor supply chains while accelerating the development and deployment of artificial intelligence.

In the Indo-Pacific, the core participants are Australia, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, with Taiwan included in a guest capacity (the Taiwanese Foreign Minister was later recorded visiting the unofficial Taiwanese embassy in Virginia, just outside Washington DC).

Each plays a distinct but complementary role in the semiconductor and AI ecosystem:

Conceptually, Pax Silica recalls earlier U.S.-led orders such as Pax Americana, recast for a digital and industrial age.

Rather than relying primarily on military dominance to guarantee stability, it seeks to anchor global systems by embedding key technologies within a tightly knit network of trusted states.

The logic is implicitly exclusionary: by deepening cooperation among partners that share supply-chain standards, export controls, and research priorities, the initiative aims to reduce dependence on China while shaping the technological environment in which future economic and military power will be exercised.

How formal Pax Silica will ultimately become remains unclear, as does whether it will develop into binding agreements rather than just coordinated signaling.

Its emergence nonetheless points to a wider shift in U.S. strategy, in which alliances are increasingly organized around chips, data, and computing capacity as much as around treaties and troop deployments.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

China turns up pressure at Sabina Shoal

On 12 December the Philippine Coast Guard reported that vessels from the Chinese Coast Guard fired high-pressure water cannons at small, wooden Filipino fishing boats operating near Sabina Shoal, injuring three fishermen and damaging their craft.

Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela said the water cannons were powerful enough to destroy wooden structures and parts of the indigenous fishing boats, making this the first known instance in which such force has been used directly against civilian fishing vessels at Sabina Shoal rather than larger coast guard ships or resupply missions.

The shift matters because it resembles the early stages of China’s approach elsewhere in the South China Sea, where sustained presence and intimidation of local fishermen paved the way for de facto control of access, as occurred at Scarborough Shoal.

By pressuring civilian livelihoods instead of military logistics, Beijing appears to be probing limits while sustaining a gray-zone posture that stops short of overt force but steadily narrows the Philippines’ ability to operate normally within its own exclusive economic zone.

The new Monroe Doctrine era & the Trump Corollary

Chile swings right at the ballot box

Ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast has secured a decisive victory in Chile’s presidential election, propelled by voter anxiety over crime, public order, and uncontrolled migration, and reinforcing a broader rightward shift across Latin America.

With 57.4 percent of ballots counted last night, Kast had captured roughly 59 percent of the vote, well ahead of the leftist candidate Jeannette Jara, who won about 41 percent.

Kast’s campaign rested squarely on promises to restore security and reassert state authority. He has pledged to form what he calls an “emergency government” to curb irregular migration, expand police powers, and impose tougher sentencing.

On the economy, Kast promised tax cuts and tighter control over public spending, arguing that fiscal discipline and private investment are essential for growth and social stability.

Ideologically, Kast has aligned himself with a group of nationalist and socially conservative leaders abroad, including Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The association signals both his outlook and his governing ambitions: a stronger executive, skepticism toward progressive social agendas, and a readiness to challenge liberal institutions in the name of order and sovereignty. Supporters view this as a long-overdue correction; others warn of democratic backsliding and the erosion of civil liberties.

Despite his emphatic mandate, Kast will face immediate constraints. Chile’s Congress remains fragmented, and his coalition lacks a clear majority in either chamber.

Advancing major reforms on migration, policing, or fiscal policy will require negotiation with centrist and conservative rivals who may share elements of his agenda but resist an accumulation of executive power.

Chile’s institutions, shaped by decades of democratic consolidation, will likely be tested as Kast seeks to convert popular support into lasting policy change.

Across the region, the result reinforces the sense that Latin America’s political pendulum is swinging back to the right, driven less by ideological fervor than by fatigue with insecurity, inflation, and ineffective governance.

Chile now appears to be part of that wider recalibration, one in which voters are placing a premium on capitalism, order, and control.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Eritrea walks away from Igad

Eritrea has announced its withdrawal from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), dealing another blow to an already fragile regional body and highlighting widening fractures across the Horn of Africa.

In a statement, Eritrea’s foreign ministry accused the organization of “becoming a tool against” certain member states rather than serving as a neutral forum for cooperation. It argued that Igad has drifted from its founding principles and has failed to make a meaningful contribution to regional stability.

The decision reflects Asmara’s long-standing suspicion of multilateral institutions in East Africa, particularly those in which Ethiopia, Kenya, and Western partners wield disproportionate influence.

Eritrean officials have complained that Igad has become selectively politicized, especially in its handling of conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia, and that it has been used to legitimize external pressure and diplomatic initiatives that clash with Eritrea’s security priorities. From Asmara’s perspective, the bloc now operates less as a platform for sovereign equality than as an instrument of regional and external influence.

Eritrea’s departure also highlights the limits of Igad’s effectiveness at a moment when the region is grappling with overlapping crises, including:

Although Igad was originally created to coordinate responses to drought, development challenges, and cross-border security threats, critics inside and outside the organization have long argued that it lacks the cohesion, enforcement capacity, and political unity required to manage today’s conflicts.

For Eritrea, withdrawal offers strategic clarity at the price of deeper regional isolation. The country has consistently favored bilateral ties and ad hoc security arrangements over binding institutional commitments, in line with its broader foreign-policy approach.

For Igad, the loss of one of its founding members further weakens its claim to speak for the region as a whole and raises fresh doubts about its relevance as East Africa’s political and security environment becomes more fragile.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

A child care scandal engulfs Orbán’s government

Viktor Orbán’s government has been pulled back into crisis after the emergence of a document cataloguing more than 3,300 cases of sexual and physical abuse within Hungary’s child care system, accompanied by video material that has amplified public outrage.

The disclosures surfaced only weeks after Orbán publicly maintained that conditions in the sector were “fine” or “acceptable,” an assessment that now looks poorly judged.

The scale of the allegations, together with indications of institutional negligence and, in some instances, active concealment by authorities, has reopened one of the most politically sensitive issues confronting the ruling Fidesz party.

The revelations have prompted a renewed wave of protests, organized under the slogan “Let’s defend our children,” a pointed inversion of the government’s own language on family values and child protection. For a government that has grounded much of its legitimacy in claims of moral authority, social conservatism, and the primacy of the family, the scandal cuts directly against a core narrative.

One of the most prominent demonstrations occurred in Budapest over the weekend, with large crowds assembling in highly visible public spaces.

The march was led by Péter Magyar, a former insider turned vocal critic of Orbán, who has emerged as a rallying figure for a fragmented opposition seeking to convert public anger into sustained political pressure.

The episode adds to the strains already bearing on Orbán’s leadership. Hungary has faced persistent domestic criticism and external scrutiny over rule-of-law issues, media freedom, and corruption. The child care scandal introduces a more visceral challenge, one that transcends ideology and resonates broadly with the public. Magyar’s prominence in the protests also hints at a possible realignment within the opposition, as figures with establishment credentials confront Orbán from positions that are harder for the government to dismiss as marginal or externally driven.

Whether the crisis becomes genuinely uncontrollable for Orbán remains unclear. His government has navigated previous scandals through a mix of media dominance, narrative discipline, and tactical concessions.

Even so, the combination of documentary evidence, visual material, and sustained street mobilization points to a potential deeper erosion of public trust. For a leader who has long portrayed himself as the guardian of Hungarian families, the allegation that the state failed its most vulnerable children carries a heavy political charge.

Birthplace of civilization

Islamic State Violence flares across northern Syria

Several serious security incidents on consecutive days have highlighted the volatility of Syria’s fragmented security landscape and the mounting risks facing both local authorities and foreign forces operating in the country.

On 13 December a suicide attack struck during a visit by an American delegation to the General Security headquarters in the Badia region of eastern Syria.

According to local reports, the attacker was the bodyguard of the official overseeing the Badia region under the administration led by President Ahmad Al Sharaa.

Violence intensified the following day, 14 December, in northwestern Syria. An Islamic State attack in the Idlib area killed at least ten members of security forces loyal to Al Sharaa’s administration. It was the fourth attack in Idlib within 36 hours, indicating a sustained campaign rather than a single strike.

The pace and clustering of the assaults suggested a deliberate attempt by Islamic State to confront rivals, weaken their claims of providing order, and restore its own relevance.

Taken together, the incidents illustrate the complex and often deadly competition among armed actors in Syria.

Islamic State, despite its territorial defeat, continues to exploit security gaps, internal rivalries, and the presence of foreign forces to mount high-impact attacks.

For Al Sharaa’s administration, the strikes expose weaknesses in its security apparatus and challenge its narrative of control in both desert regions and urban strongholds such as Idlib.

For the United States, the Badia attack is a reminder that even limited deployments and advisory missions carry serious risks in an environment marked by fluid loyalties and resilient insurgent networks.

A deadly attack at Bondi Beach

On 14 December 2025 a terrorist mass shooting struck Bondi Beach in Sydney during a large Hanukkah celebration known as “Chanukah by the Sea.”

Two armed assailants, identified by police as Sajid Akram, 50, and his son Naveed Akram, 24, opened fire on crowds gathered for the event. Authorities have classified the assault as a terrorist attack with an antisemitic motive after Islamic State flags were found in the suspects’ vehicle and investigators identified prior links to extremist networks.

One gunman (Sajid) was killed by police at the scene, while the other was shot and taken into custody in critical condition. Emergency services declared the area an active crime scene, and improvised explosive devices (described by the poilce as ‘rudimentary’) were also discovered and safely neutralized.

The human toll was severe. At least 15 people were killed, including a child, and at least 42 others were injured, among them police officers and bystanders of various ages. Rabbi Eli Schlanger, a community leader, was among the victims, and foreign nationals were also reported among the dead and wounded.

As details emerged, the attack appeared less an isolated act than the culmination of a long-running pattern of Islamic State-linked radicalization and intelligence blind spots. Naveed Akram, one of the gunmen, was closely connected to Isaac El-Matari, who is serving a seven-year prison sentence for planning an Islamic State insurgency after declaring himself the group’s Australian commander.

El-Matari belonged to a Sydney-based ISIS cell whose members have since been convicted of terrorism offenses, several of whom also maintained close ties to Akram.

Australian intelligence officials have confirmed that the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation took an interest in Akram as early as six years ago, after police disrupted plans for an ISIS-inspired attack; authorities at the time believed he had pledged allegiance to the group.

The historical context deepens concerns over security lapses.

El-Matari returned to Australia in 2018 after serving time in a Lebanese prison for attempting to travel to Syria to join Islamic State. From his return until his arrest, he remained under sustained intelligence and law-enforcement scrutiny. Despite this, his wider network appears to have retained both ideological cohesion and operational intent.

The shooting ranks among the deadliest attacks in Australia’s history. Akram and his father killed at least 15 people, including a 10-year-old girl, and sent dozens to hospital, with several victims remaining in critical condition.

In the aftermath, scrutiny has focused on both intelligence oversight and Australia’s firearms regime. The national cabinet has agreed to review gun-control measures, including licensing standards, limits on the number of firearms an individual may own, tighter restrictions on permitted weapons, and proposals to confine firearms licenses to Australian citizens.

The questions many Australians are asking is: what is the point of a national firearms registry, if individuals known to be in contact with extremist groups have access to those firearms?

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