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Dear Loyal Readers, We’ll be taking a break over the Christmas holidays and the New Year, until 5 January. In the meantime, we will publish some long form articles on issues of geopolitical importance (as we did this time last year). And we will provide news flashes of important developments. Right now we are monitoring: - The seizure of two ships carrying Venezuelan oil by U.S. authorities (the pursuit of a third vessel), and U.S. sanctions on members of the Venezuelan President’s family. The pressure on Venezuela is ratcheting up. - Threats by Israel, broadcast through leaks to the mainstream media, of strikes on Iran and strikes on Iraqi militias linked to Iran. Iraq’s authorities, meanwhile, are finalizing a disarmament program for four out of the remaining major militia groups. And Iran is signaling defiance by conducting missile tests. - Threats by Israel, again broadcast through the mainstream media, of increased strikes on Lebanon, as Lebanon’s government announces it has almost completed the removal of Hezbollah and its weapons from southern Lebanon. - Worth noting are the U.S. operations over the weekend against Islamic State facilities and fighters in rural areas of Syria, following the killing of three Americans (two military and one civilian) in an Islamic State attack in Syria on 13 December. We don’t think this is the end of this story, as the U.S. will likely continue to support the new Syrian government in its campaign to consolidate power. However, American support to the separatists Kurds in north eastern Syria is likely to continue at this time, in conjunction with attempts to force reconciliation between the Kurds and Damascus. - Meanwhile, the price of platinum, gold, and silver continues to rise dramatically. So too, Japanese bonds continue to rise: They have provided a cheap supply of money for the global economy for three decades, and the rise in price threatens this source of cheap liquidity. - And Europe has designated Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia as safe countries to return refugees to; likewise it will soon also designate Bangladesh, Colombia, India, and Kosovo, as safe countries to which refugees currently in Europe can be returned. - Please also continue to follow us on X.com, for the latest (@NAMEAGroup). |
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Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief
What happened today:
1775 - British Parliament passes the Prohibitory Act, cutting off trade with the American colonies. 1816 - Treaty of Peace and Amity signed at Algiers between the United States and Algiers (Barbary settlement). 1894 - French Army officer Alfred Dreyfus is convicted of treason in a court-martial. 1943 - The Damascus agreement is signed, recognizing the independence of Syria and Lebanon in treaty arrangements with France. 1945 - President Truman issues the “Truman Directive,” prioritizing displaced persons and refugees within U.S. immigration quotas. 1948 - Indonesia establishes the Emergency Government of the Republic of Indonesia (PDRI) during the Dutch offensive. 1989 - Romanian Revolution: Nicolae Ceaușescu is overthrown. 1989 - The Brandenburg Gate border crossing reopens, symbolizing the end of Berlin’s division. 1990 - Lech Wałęsa is sworn in as President of Poland. 2001 - “Shoe bomber” Richard Reid attempts an attack on a transatlantic flight and is subdued. 2010 - The U.S. repeals “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” allowing open military service by gay and lesbian personnel. 2018 - A U.S. federal government shutdown begins amid a budget dispute over border wall funding.
