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What you need to know

Iran’s anti-government protests

Nine days into serious anti-government protests across Iran, the broad pattern is becoming clearer, even as verifiable detail remains scarce.

Demonstrations have spread well beyond Tehran, reaching smaller and regional cities.

So far, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has documented 81 different protests across 23 provinces. In the capital, most gatherings have been concentrated in eastern, central, and southern districts, though demonstrations also continued in the western neighborhood of Punak. What began as protests by bazaar merchants, angered by inflation that has made imported goods unaffordable, has taken on a life of its own. Yesterday, large crowds reportedly attended funerals for those killed, turning mourning into renewed mobilization.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a speech on Saturday, tried to separate the business-based demands of the bazaar merchants from the more anti-government street protesters, but the attempt does not appear to have eased the pressure. Neither did the resignation of Iran’s central bank governor Mohammad Reza Farzin.

Security measures, including the use of live fire and mass arrests, have continued, while internet disruptions and restrictions on foreign journalists have made the true scale and intensity of events difficult to confirm.

While the demonstrations up to this point are based around issues of every day life, especially currency devaluation and the accompanying inflation, if they become truly self-sustaining they may threaten the survival of the regime, potentially leading to an internal coup to push out the old guard (including Khamenei) or a broader popular revolution. Instability in Iran will have a knock-on effect throughout the Middle East and down into the Persian Gulf, where much of the world’s oil is sourced and transported.

The new Monroe Doctrine era & the Trump Corollary 

Venezuela’s interregnum

The U.S. law enforcement and military operation over the weekend that ended President Nicolas Maduro’s rule has left Venezuela in a limbo that is both dramatic and oddly procedural.

On 3 January 2026, Maduro was seized in a high-profile operation and transferred to U.S. custody alongside his wife, where both now face charges, a spectacle meant to convey more than just law enforcement, but rather was a clear demonstration of American power and America’s renewed geopolitical focus on the Western Hemisphere.

The morning after, President Donald Trump publicly hinted that the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, was unlikely to play a leading role in any post-Maduro government, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged separate contacts with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who is reportedly in Moscow. The message was plain: Washington appears to favor continuity in the machinery of the state, provided it co-operates.

Trump’s rhetoric also pointed to an unusually direct U.S. role in the near term, including plans to “run” Venezuela and rebuild its oil industry in ways framed as benefiting Venezuelans while also serving U.S. corporate and government interests. 

Overall, the parallel outreach to senior remnants of the chavista system indicates a U.S.-preference for a managed transition built on conditional deals rather than a clean break. 

Trump, meanwhile, warned Mexico about the continuing activity of its drug cartels. And Colombia’s president has issued threatening statements condemning the intervention and warning of regional consequences.

But the sharper strategic question may be how Havana is affected by this event, and how it responds.  

Cuba has long been deeply embedded in Maduro’s protective and intelligence ecosystem, and Rubio’s warnings in recent days imply that the U.S. may treat Cuban involvement not as background noise, but as a target for pressure in the next phase, as the U.S. builds out the parameters of the new Monroe Doctrine with its Trump Corollary as outlined in the latest U.S. National Security Strategy.

The birth pangs of the birthplace of civilization 

A southern Yemeni gambit, and a new dimension to a familiar war

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) has made its boldest institutional move toward a revived South Yemen in years. It has unveiled a constitutional framework for an independent southern state and outlined a two-year transition that would culminate in a referendum.

Many observers read this as independence in practice, even if it stops short of a clean, internationally recognized break right now. On the ground, however, the decisive shifts have come less from declarations than from the practical effects of the infighting within the anti-Houthi camp.

The STC’s recent push into Hadramout ruptured the coalition fighting the Houthis and brought a Saudi–UAE divergence into the open. Saudi-backed forces have since reasserted control in and around Mukalla after airstrikes and political pressure that reportedly prompted STC withdrawals from key positions in Hadramout.

Meanwhile the Houthis remain the dominant force in the north and northwest, holding Sanaa and much of the northern highlands.

The broader war therefore remains largely frozen, even as the south’s internal balance of power is contested in real time.

Move fast and break things

The subsidy cliff returns to Obamacare

As of the start of 2026, the Affordable Care Act’s temporary enhanced premium tax credits have expired.

Many Marketplace households will therefore receive smaller subsidies than they did last year, and some will lose eligibility for the extra help altogether.

In 2025, roughly 22.4m people, about 92% of Marketplace enrollees, received advance payments tied to these enhanced credits, so the lapse affects most of the market.

Without an extension, net premium payments for subsidized enrollees would more than double on average in 2026, with the sharpest increases often falling on older buyers and people in higher-premium areas. The financial exposure is uneven geographically and politically. A large share of Marketplace enrollees live in states that voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, so the fallout is likely to be felt heavily in many Republican-leaning states as well as Democratic ones.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

North Korea opens 2026 with a hypersonic test

North Korean state media said Kim Jong Un oversaw a hypersonic missile launch drill on 4 January, casting it as a readiness test and part of strengthening the country’s “war deterrent.”

South Korea and Japan reported detecting multiple ballistic-missile launches into waters east of the Korean peninsula, with flight distances of roughly 900–1,000 km (560–620 miles).

Both governments condemned the launches as violations of UN Security Council resolutions. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said it was aware of the launches and was consulting with allies, while assessing no immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory.

These were North Korea’s first ballistic-missile launches of 2026, and may have involved the Hwasong-11 family of missiles which were displayed at an October 2025 parade, though public technical detail remains limited.

The launch coincided with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to China, and North Korean messaging also criticized recent U.S. actions in Venezuela, giving the military display a geopolitical gloss.

Grinding stalemate in Ukraine continues on the ground

Over the past two weeks, the battlefront in Ukraine has been continued to be shaped by slow, attritional shifts rather than rapid manoeuvre.

Russia has continued to apply pressure in the east, particularly on the Donetsk axis around the broader Pokrovsk approach and the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical area, producing small, locally confirmed changes rather than a decisive breakthrough.

Ukraine, meanwhile, appears to have made some tactical gains in parts of the northeast around Kupyansk, even as Russia maintains regular attacks there.

In the south, Moscow has reiterated that capturing the remainder of Zaporizhzhia region remains a priority, while the northern border areas have seen continued probing and small-unit activity amid competing claims and information operations.

Above all of this, the air-and-drone war has been intense around the New Year, with both sides sustaining a high tempo of long-range strikes that complicates logistics, damages infrastructure, and has an impact on battlefield momentum as much as any single village taken or lost.

Cyber pressure rises on Taiwan

Taiwan’s National Security Bureau said that in 2025 it logged an average of about 2.63m cyberattacks a day that it attributes to China, with critical infrastructure, including hospitals, energy services, and banks, a recurring target.

The bureau said the figure was up 6% from 2024, and that the methods ranged from denial-of-service flooding to man-in-the-middle activity.

The warning came days after China’s military staged large-scale exercises around Taiwan, including the live-fire “Justice Mission 2025” drills on 29–30 December, which Taipei said involved sizable naval and air deployments.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Gunmen raid a market in Nigeria’s Niger State

Police in Nigeria’s Niger State said gunmen attacked Kasuwan Daji market in Demo village, in Borgu local government area, at about 4:30 p.m. on Saturday, 3 January, killing at least 30 people and abducting others.

The attackers, described by police as “bandits”, burned market stalls and looted food items, while witnesses said they arrived on motorcycles and opened fire indiscriminately, with women and children among the victims.

President Bola Tinubu said he had ordered security agencies to pursue those responsible, rescue abductees, and intensify operations around vulnerable communities, particularly near forests, as residents reported more people missing and suggested the death toll could be higher than the police figure.

Botswana courts Russian investment

Botswana’s foreign minister, Phenyo Butale, said yesterday that Gaborone plans to open an embassy in Moscow soon, presenting the move as part of an effort to deepen ties with Russia and attract investment.

He encouraged Russian firms to bring capital and expertise to Botswana’s mining sector, with a particular focus on rare earths as the country looks to broaden its economy beyond diamonds.

Butale also pointed to diamonds as a natural area for cooperation, given their outsized importance to public finances and foreign-exchange earnings, and noted that Russian mining companies have operated in Botswana before.

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