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Iran unrest: crackdown begins

Considering that Iran’s protest movement has only gathered momentum over the past 13 days, the regime has now intensified its crackdown accordingly, including by taking the rare step of using the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces to suppress protests in at least one province. 

Connectivity has been sharply curtailed nationwide. Independent internet monitors and international network providers report widespread outages and throttling across multiple provinces, alongside disruptions to phone service and international calling in many areas.

Official messaging has shifted from playing down unrest to warning of “casualties” while blaming foreign-linked “terrorist” actors, a sign that the state is laying the groundwork for tougher measures as demonstrations persist.

Monitoring suggests the regime has, in at least one province, taken the unusual step of deploying Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces in a domestic security role, an escalation beyond routine policing and Basij militia mobilization.

Claims of large-scale deaths in particular locations, including allegations of mass shootings, are circulating. The communications blackout has made independent verification difficult, and casualty figures remain disputed.

Aviation disruption is spreading. Turkish Airlines has cancelled scheduled Istanbul–Tehran flights for Friday. Separate reports suggest additional airport restrictions inside Iran, though details are uneven.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Beirut for meetings yesterday, presented as focused on bilateral ties and economic cooperation. There are social-media claims that his family traveled with him and may remain in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump warned Tehran it would face severe consequences if it uses deadly force against protesters. Iran’s supreme leader has replied today with defiance, rejecting outside pressure and portraying the unrest as foreign-backed destabilization.

The next 48 hours will be important, as we see whether the regime can suppress the demonstrations, or whether they escalate. Activities in Kurdish majority regions, where there is a level of organizational structure in anti-government groups, will be a significant indicator of whether the government can regain control.

Birthplace of civilization

Aleppo ceasefire today following serious clashes in Aleppo, amid claims the interim Syrian President is being held

A ceasefire announced on 9 January has eased, but not ended, several days of fighting in northern Aleppo between Syrian government forces and Kurdish-led units linked to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Clashes have focused on the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh, and Bani Zeid, prompting evacuation orders, large-scale displacement, and reports of rising civilian casualties.

Under the government’s stated terms, Kurdish fighters would be allowed to withdraw with personal light weapons and move under escort toward SDF-held territory in northeastern Syria. Implementation remains uncertain. Local accounts suggest the truce is fragile, with continued tension over checkpoints, safe corridors, and the sequencing of any withdrawals.

The political fallout is widening. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s Prime Minister Masrour Barzani warned that “the targeting of Kurds” in Aleppo “to alter the region’s demographics and endanger civilians” raises serious questions about the government in Damascus and the international community’s response, framing the clashes as much more than a local dispute.

Separately, veteran Kurdish politician Salih Muslim has alleged that Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been captured by his own people. Muslim points to al-Sharaa’s absence from public view and his failure to speak since an alleged incident widely reported as an attempted assassination. Muslim claims al-Sharaa is being held either in Damascus or in Ankara, Türkiye. He called for al-Sharaa to appear publicly to refute the allegation. The claims have not been independently verified and may just be political propaganda; or perhaps something more serious. Al-Sharaa’s recent absence from public appearances is notable.

What to watch next:

Move fast and break things

An executive order with hard limits on voting practices

President Donald Trump has said he wants to sign an executive order aimed at ending mail-in voting and phasing out voting machines before the 2026 midterms.

That should be treated as an intention, not a policy change, unless and until a published order says otherwise.

Legal experts note that election administration is largely a state responsibility, which sharply limits what a president can ban outright by decree.

The White House has, however, already issued a separate elections-related order on 25 March 2025 focused on federal forms, citizenship verification, and inter-agency coordination. That points to the more realistic terrain for executive action: rules, standards, databases, guidance, and the use of federal leverage, rather than a clean nationwide prohibition.

If Trump attempted a broader move, the most plausible mechanics would be indirect, such as urging the Election Assistance Commission to tighten certification standards for equipment used in federal elections, conditioning certain federal grants on states adopting specific voting practices, and directing the Justice Department toward a more aggressive enforcement posture.

Even then, the most likely near-term outcome would be rapid litigation and uneven compliance, because states set most voting rules and run the machinery of elections, and courts could pause contested provisions while the merits are argued.

Substantively, “eliminating mail-in ballots” would run into the reality that many states rely heavily on absentee or vote-by-mail systems, with the practical effect of limiting access for voters who cannot easily vote in person, including people with disabilities, the elderly, and some remote or traveling voters, with spillover effects on turnout and administration.

Likewise, “eliminating voting machines” is rhetorically tidy but operationally messy. Much of what voters call “machines” are ballot scanners that count paper ballots, and replacing that infrastructure at scale would be expensive, slow, and more likely to increase the risk of long counts and local disputes than to reduce them.

Meanwhile, the mail-in system is already facing procedural friction outside the White House, including Postal Service postmark guidance that election officials say could lead to more ballots being rejected on technical grounds, a reminder that small administrative changes can matter even without a sweeping federal ban.

A mortgage-bond gamble in pursuit of the American dream

President Donald Trump says he has directed the U.S. government’s housing-finance machinery to buy $200bn of mortgage-backed securities, arguing that a large, targeted bid for mortgage bonds will push down yields and, in turn, mortgage rates.

The plan appears to run through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-controlled mortgage giants overseen by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, rather than through Congress or the Federal Reserve. Trump framed the move as an attempt to “bring back the American dream” by cutting monthly payments and making homeownership more attainable.

Mechanically, the idea resembles a simplified form of quantitative easing. When a large buyer steps into the mortgage-bond market, prices rise and yields fall, which can narrow the spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Even if rates ease, the policy runs into housing’s tougher constraint: supply. America’s affordability problem is not only the price of money but also the scarcity of homes for sale, amplified by “lock-in” effects that keep owners with low-rate mortgages from moving.

There is also a balance-sheet trade-off. Using Fannie and Freddie’s resources at scale could leave them less protected against a downturn, while inviting accusations that housing finance is being steered by political priorities rather than prudential ones.

Markets, meanwhile, will watch for the details: the pace of purchases, which bonds are targeted, the risk limits, and what happens if rates do not fall as promised.

America First

Trump threatens cartel strikes in Mexico

President Donald Trump has said the U.S. will take the fight to the drug cartels in Mexico implying a shift from maritime interdictions towards direct strikes on cartel infrastructure and leadership.

He has cast the approach as a national-security response to overdose deaths and cross-border violence, and it aligns with steps his administration has already taken to treat major cartels as terror-linked actors, including a 20 January 2025 executive order establishing a designation process and subsequent State Department designations on 20 February 2025.

The main barrier is Mexico’s view on its sovereignty: President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected any U.S. military action on Mexican soil, arguing that cooperation must respect sovereignty, even as both sides keep channels open for intelligence-sharing and law-enforcement coordination.

If the rhetoric hardens into policy, Washington would still face domestic legal and congressional constraints, while Mexico’s refusal would increase the risk of escalation and a sharp deterioration in bilateral security and economic cooperation.

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