Imagine this. You open your phone to an alert. It says, “you spent $236,000,000 more this month than you did last month.”

If you were the top bidder at Sotheby’s fall auctions, it could be reality.

Sounds crazy, right? But when the ultra-wealthy spend staggering amounts on blue-chip art, it’s not just for decoration.

The scarcity of these treasured artworks has helped drive their prices, in exceptional cases, to thin-air heights, without moving in lockstep with other asset classes.

The contemporary and post war segments have even outpaced the S&P 500 overall since 1995.*

Now, over 70,000 people have invested $1.2 billion+ across 500 iconic artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.

How? You don’t need Medici money to invest in multimillion dollar artworks with Masterworks.

Thousands of members have gotten annualized net returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8% from 26 sales to date.

Explore offerings

_{*Based on Masterworks data. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd}

What you need to know

Iran’s comms blackout provides regime with space to accelerate crackdown

Amid a near-total internet blackout that has lasted more than four days, and with phone communications only intermittent, reports from Iran are claiming that government forces have suffered fatalities in the low hundreds, with civilian protesters possibly numbering as many as 10,000 dead.

Such figures are difficult to verify under blackout conditions and should be treated with caution, but if confirmed they would imply an exceptionally severe escalation. Claims of security-force deaths on this scale would also be among the highest reported in a bout of civil unrest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

There are also reports that Kurdish fighters, including the Kurdistan Freedom Party, are organizing in the west of the country and beginning to lay the groundwork for a longer-term insurgency.

In southeastern Iran, at least one Baloch group has declared it will fight the regime. Baloch militancy has long straddled Iran and Pakistan, and has simmered for decades.

Over the weekend, President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the nation. He adopted a conciliatory tone, urging people to trust the government to resolve economic problems, while attributing the protests to outside forces. His remarks are unlikely to have persuaded many.

This morning Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that the situation in the country was ‘completely under control’.

The coming days will demonstrate whether this is true or not, but we do not believe that this protest movement has been suppressed yet, despite the overwhelming force deployed.

However, for a revolution to succeed, it is necessary for elements of the power structure, such as the military, security forces, clerics, or other key pillars of the regime, to join the protests, and we have not seen that yet.

Birthplace of civilization

The U.S. keeps its powder dry, for now

There are no clear signs of a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, despite slightly hysterical commentary on social media. President Donald Trump has asked for a military briefing on options tomorrow (Tuesday).

The administration has suggested that the menu may not center on kinetic strikes, and that it will also weigh other tools, including cyber operations. Washington could also try to reopen Iran’s internet access, expand the distribution of Starlink terminals, or tighten enforcement against Iran’s oil exports to increase economic pressure on the regime.

As for kinetic strikes, it is worth recalling that the B-2 bombers that hit Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025 flew from their home base in Missouri. If the plan is limited, targeted attacks, the U.S. does not necessarily need a visible regional buildup.

One further constraint is hard to ignore. Although much, though not all, of Iran’s long-range ballistic-missile force was heavily degraded during the 12-day conflict in June 2025, Iran still has substantial stocks of short- and medium-range missiles. Those could threaten American and allied facilities across the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East. That risk will feature prominently in the Pentagon’s calculations.

Aleppo ceasefire collapses as government forces retake Kurdish districts

The ceasefire declared on Friday in Aleppo, in fighting between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, collapsed over the weekend.

Government forces now appear to control all districts of Aleppo that were previously Kurdish-majority. Under the ceasefire terms, some Kurdish fighters left through an agreed withdrawal and returned to areas of northeast Syria under SDF control. Many Kurdish civilians, however, were left behind. There have been no reports of massacres, but online videos appear to show government forces rounding up civilians and verbally abusing them.

What was meant to be a ceasefire followed by an orderly pullback has instead taken on the character of an unconditional surrender.

The outcome is a major victory for the government in Damascus, but it is likely to deepen the divide between the government and the SDF, reducing the long term prospects for integration compared with the situation before the Aleppo fighting began last week.

The SDF controls most of Syria’s oil resources, as well as a large share of its agricultural wealth, particularly wheat.

Move fast and break things

The Justice Department turns up the heat on the Federal Reserve Chair

The Department of Justice has announced an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell, an extraordinary step that intensifies President Trump’s political campaign against the central bank’s independence.

The inquiry is unusual not only because it targets a sitting Fed chair, but because it risks blurring the line between criminal enforcement and macroeconomic policy. Powell has been a frequent target of attacks by Trump, who has repeatedly blamed the Fed for keeping interest rates too high.

Public reporting suggests the investigation is tied to Powell’s congressional testimony about the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation and related spending, including whether statements to lawmakers were accurate. Even if prosecutors frame the matter narrowly, the timing and optics will invite allegations of political pressure, particularly if the administration continues to demand faster rate cuts.

The immediate stakes are institutional. Central banks trade on credibility, and credibility depends on insulation from short-term politics. An investigation that appears to weaponize oversight could chill internal decision-making at the Fed, complicate communications with Congress, and inject a fresh risk premium into markets.

Longer-term, the episode could help set a precedent for treating monetary-policy disagreements as grounds for legal intimidation, with consequences that extend well beyond Powell himself.

The ultimate complex system

Gold and silver hit records on uncertainty

Gold has surged above a record $4,600 per troy ounce, and silver has climbed above a record $84, as investors return to traditional havens amid a thickening fog of uncertainty.

The rally reflects a mix of geopolitical risk, political turbulence in Washington, and shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates.

If markets conclude that the Federal Reserve will face pressure to ease policy, or that decision-making will become less predictable, the dollar can weaken and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals tends to fall.

Silver’s rise has been especially notable because it serves as both a hedge and an industrial input, which can amplify momentum when fear, tight liquidity, and speculative positioning move in the same direction.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief