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What you need to know

Iran’s rulers face their gravest test since 1979

Yesterday we suggested, based on scattered reports from witnesses inside Iran, that the death toll could be as high as 10,000. Today Iran International, a Saudi-backed opposition outlet, put the figure at 12,000. The regime, meanwhile, has acknowledged 2,000 deaths.

International condemnation is intensifying. Australia and Germany both issued statements overnight denouncing the crackdown and arguing that the regime has forfeited its legitimacy. Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, went further, saying that “we are witnessing the final days and weeks of the Iranian regime”.

A trickle of information is escaping via Starlink satellite terminals. At the same time, security forces are reportedly going door-to-door in parts of Tehran to confiscate satellite dishes. The Associated Press, reporting from Dubai, said its journalists received some international calls from inside Iran this morning, though they were unable to call the numbers back.

U.S. rhetoric is also hardening. In anonymously attributed comments leaked to journalists, administration officials said the White House is increasingly weighing kinetic strikes against targets in Tehran. President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

The scale of the unrest remains difficult to gauge, given the five-day shutdown of regular internet and phone services. The regime’s intent, however, seems unmistakable: to crush the protests quickly, before they cohere into something harder to contain.

The same point we have made since the beginning of these protests still holds. Revolutions without organization often falter. But organization can also form amid disorder. There are signs of this in Iran’s Kurdish areas, and possibly in Baluchi regions as well. What remains uncertain is whether the 16-day protest movement elsewhere is developing structures capable of sustaining pressure on the state.

Another unknown is whether elements of the security apparatus, including the regular army or factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, might defect. If meaningful parts of the coercive machinery switch sides, the regime’s position becomes untenable. With information limited, firm judgments are premature.

One further reminder is worth keeping in mind. The protests that unseated the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979, built over roughly a year. Strategic patience is warranted when assessing how this wave might develop.

Birthplace of civilization

Gaza’s technocrats return to the table

Palestinian factions are meeting today in Cairo to revive a familiar idea: sidelining partisan rivals by creating a technocratic committee to run Gaza’s day-to-day administration.

The proposal, pushed by regional mediators (especially Egypt), is meant to solve several problems at once. It would give Gaza a non-Hamas face that could reassure donors and external backers, while avoiding the immediate political shock of either restoring the Palestinian Authority (PA) by force or leaving Hamas in charge of civilian ministries.

The wording matters almost as much as the committee itself. A Fatah spokesman in Gaza, Monther al-Hayek, warned Hamas against supporting a committee that is not explicitly tied to the PA, arguing that any arrangement outside the PA’s umbrella would amount to a step toward administrative separation. That reflects Fatah’s core fear: that Gaza hardens again into a permanent parallel entity, with “technocrats” serving as a polite label for a Hamas-adjacent administration.

Hamas, for its part, has signaled conditional openness to dissolving its Gaza government if a new body takes over, but its incentives are narrower than Fatah’s. Hamas wants to preserve influence, protect its armed wing, and avoid being blamed for the collapse of public services. Fatah wants the committee to look like an interim mechanism that restores PA primacy, not an end-run around it. Egypt is trying to keep both sides in the room, with Qatar and Türkiye also involved in the wider diplomacy.

The talks are also being shaped by external timelines. Recent reporting has linked the governance discussion to a broader, U.S.-backed post-war framework that envisages staged security arrangements, reconstruction, and some form of international oversight. Whether that architecture can be made to work will depend less on committee job titles than on harder questions: who controls border crossings, who pays salaries, who commands security forces, and what becomes of Hamas’s weapons.

A first accounting of Aleppo’s missing Kurds

Reports from Aleppo’s Kurdish-majority districts, especially Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, point to a widening accountability gap after the latest round of fighting and security operations.

A first published roster of at least 278 missing Kurdish civilians is being treated by Kurdish outlets and civil-society monitors as an initial tally. Follow-on lists are likely to grow as families compare information, check detention facilities, and confirm who fled, who was detained, and who cannot be reached amid disrupted communications and movement restrictions.

The Kurdish Red Crescent says it has also lost contact with three medical staff who were working in the same neighborhoods. Some reporting suggests they were later confirmed as detained or abducted, depending on the account.

Meanwhile, press-freedom monitors report that authorities have restricted, or selectively permitted, coverage. They have also detained or barred journalists seeking to enter or report from the Kurdish neighborhoods. That has limited independent verification of who is missing, where people may be held, and whether abuses occurred during the takeover and subsequent security sweeps.

Media exclusion increases rumor density and slows corroboration, which is why outside monitors and local NGOs are pressing for access, detainee lists, and family-notification procedures.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Ukraine and Moldova besiege Russian forces in Transnistria

In the past few days, Ukraine and Moldova have tightened controls around Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Moldova on Ukraine’s border, sharply constraining movement into and out of the Moscow-backed breakaway region and complicating logistics for Russia’s military contingent there.

Ukraine has kept its crossing points into Transnistria closed since the early phase of Russia’s full-scale invasion, removing the only direct overland route Russia could plausibly use for organized resupply or troop rotation. As a result, traffic and personnel movements that might previously have transited via Ukraine must route through Moldova’s controlled entry points, typically via Chisinau, where Moldovan authorities can screen, delay, or deny movement and cargo. Moldova has just done that.

The restrictions do not mean Transnistria is sealed off from all goods. Civilian commerce can still reach the region via Moldova in some form. The measures bite most on militarily relevant logistics, including bulk fuel, dual-use equipment, munitions, specialist spare parts, and routine personnel rotation. This pushes Russia’s presence further toward a political symbol than a force with credible options for sustained military action.

Air access remains constrained as much by status as by geography. Transnistria lacks internationally recognized air links, and entry for travelers generally routes through Moldova, giving Moldovan authorities another point at which to disrupt suspicious movements. Transnistrian officials have publicly complained about tighter controls, reflecting the region’s dependence on Moldovan gateways.

Over time, the isolation is likely to erode readiness for Russia’s contingent, commonly estimated at about 1,500 personnel, and narrow its practical mission to guarding key sites and maintaining a tripwire presence. One focus is the Cobasna ammunition depot, frequently cited by regional officials and analysts as a major legacy stockpile and a recurring safety and security concern.

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