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What you need to know

Iran’s blackout drags on as violence crushes protests

Iran’s internet blackout has lasted for more than 138 hours. At President Donald Trump’s request, Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk has made Starlink subscriptions free in Iran. An estimated 50,000 Starlink terminals are in the country, many of them previously offline because of the cost.

There is still no sign of a U.S. military buildup in the region, though as we noted yesterday, the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities were launched from Missouri, so limited targeted strikes would not necessarily require a regional military buildup.

The death toll appears to be in the many thousands, though there are no official figures. Rights groups and international media are assembling estimates from unofficial counts, based on contacts with medical institutions and activist networks. The government says 3,000 people have been killed; some human-rights and activist networks now claim the number could be as high as 20,000.

The protests appear to have lost momentum over the past day, amid extreme violence by security forces.

Anti-government activity, however, appears to be continuing, and may be intensifying, in Kurdish areas, particularly in the city of Kermanshah (population close to 1 million). Large numbers of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps units, alongside allied militias from Iraq, have reportedly deployed there to fight Kurdish separatists, who appear to have taken control of much of the city.

Birthplace of civilization

A technocratic cabinet is announced for Gaza

Following meetings in Cairo on Tuesday, a new technocratic government for Gaza has been announced.

The technocratic government has reportedly received formal letters of appointment signed by the Trump Administration-backed Board of Peace, with a public announcement expected today. Supporters present the move as more than a gesture, arguing that it signals the start of a new phase focused on administration, accountability, and reconstruction rather than factional rule.

Backers say the cabinet is made up of independent Gazan professionals affiliated with neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas. They argue that many members remained in Gaza during the war, endured its consequences, and stayed involved in local institutions and community life.

The government is expected to be headed by Ali Shaath, an academic and public-policy figure described by supporters as technocratic and independent, with a long record of work on governance, development, and institutional reform.

Other prominent figures cited in the announcement include Ayed Abu Ramadan, an economic and private-sector figure in Gaza; Samira Helles, a public-administration specialist; and Hana Tarzi, a civil-society representative involved in community engagement and humanitarian coordination. Supporters argue that, taken together, the cabinet reflects a civilian, locally rooted approach to governance.

Supporters frame the development as a structural shift toward rebuilding infrastructure, restoring public services, stabilizing the economy, coordinating humanitarian and development efforts, and laying the groundwork for longer-term governance reform and regional integration.

Lebanon’s foreign minister links Hezbollah disarmament to Israeli strikes

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji said yesterday that the ceasefire agreement requires the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, arguing that Israel would continue to have grounds to strike as long as the group remains armed.

“The ceasefire agreement stipulates that the Lebanese government will disarm Hezbollah,” he said. “As long as Hezbollah still holds weapons, Israel, unfortunately, has the right to continue its attacks against them.”

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Ukraine war update: front lines largely steady as long-range strikes intensify

Open-source battlefield trackers suggest the front line in eastern Ukraine has changed little over the past week, even as both sides have intensified long-range attacks. In Donetsk, fighting has remained heavy, but publicly confirmed territorial changes in core Donbas sectors appear limited in recent open reporting, and many claimed gains are difficult to verify independently.

The week’s most consequential developments have come from the air. Overnight on 12–13 January, Russia launched one of its largest combined drone-and-missile attacks in recent weeks, again concentrating on Ukraine’s energy system during severe winter conditions. Ukrainian officials reported nearly 300 drones, as well as ballistic and cruise missiles, striking multiple regions and targeting power infrastructure. Kyiv experienced its most serious outage of the winter, and authorities reported widespread disruptions to electricity and central heating. In Kharkiv, officials said four people were killed, including in a strike on a Nova Poshta logistics facility, while emergency power restrictions and rolling outages were imposed in several regions. With temperatures in Kyiv reported around -15°C (5°F), Ukrainian officials warned the attacks were designed to compound civilian hardship.

Ukraine, for its part, has continued a campaign of drone strikes into Russia. Early on 14 January, Russian officials said a Ukrainian drone attack on Rostov-on-Don caused a fire at an industrial site, damaged apartment buildings, and killed one person while injuring four. Russia’s defense ministry reported intercepting drones over Rostov region and elsewhere. Separately, Ukrainian statements and international reporting said drones struck a drone-manufacturing facility in Taganrog, also in Rostov region, with reports of explosions, fire, and damage to production buildings.

Beyond the battlefield, maritime risk in the Black Sea has risen again. War-risk insurance costs for ships operating there jumped on 13 January after two Greek-managed oil tankers were struck by unidentified drones while heading to load at a Russian terminal. Insurers tightened review cycles to 24 hours, reflecting concerns about the unpredictability of drone threats and the potential for further attacks to disrupt energy and grain flows.

The ultimate complex system

Metals mania returns

Silver has surged above $90 an ounce, extending a powerful rally that has pushed the metal into what some analysts call uncharted territory. Copper has also climbed to fresh records, capping a sharp rise over recent months and adding to the sense that commodities are entering a new phase of repricing.

Traders and investors cite a familiar mix of forces. Expectations of easier monetary policy have lowered real yields and weakened the dollar, conditions that typically favor precious metals and other dollar-priced commodities. At the same time, copper is being driven by a supply base that adjusts slowly to price signals, colliding with demand tied to electrification, grid upgrades, data centers, and defense production. When inventories are tight, markets can start pricing availability as much as fundamentals, lifting near-term contracts and tugging benchmarks higher.

The move is also being magnified by market structure. Once prices form a clear trend, systematic strategies and leveraged positions can add momentum, while options-related hedging can reinforce the direction of travel. The result is a market that, across multiple assets, seems to be moving one way, with prices rising in an unusually linear fashion.

Silver’s surge has revived attention to headline-friendly milestones, including estimates of the metal’s total value based on assumed above-ground stocks. Such figures are imprecise, but they can help sustain the sense that a broader regime change is underway. For now, metals are trading as both inflation hedges and scarcity assets, a combination that can turn volatile when liquidity is ample and conviction feeds on itself.

The key question is what breaks the pattern first: a policy surprise, a demand shock, or a faster-than-expected supply response.

America first

U.S. designates Muslim Brotherhood branches in Lebanon, Egypt, & Jordan

The U.S. government has escalated its campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood by imposing terrorism designations on three of the movement’s national branches, a step that triggers asset freezes, transaction bans, and wider sanctions risk for anyone found to be doing business with them.

The administration framed the move as an effort to disrupt what it says is material support for Hamas and other violent activities against U.S. partners in the region. Officials argue that these organizations present themselves as civic and charitable movements while operating political and financial networks that, in Washington’s view, help sustain militant groups. The targeted organizations have denied involvement in terrorism and criticized the designations as political.

The practical effects are immediate. For SDGT listings, any property and interests in property within U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from dealing with the designated entities. Foreign financial institutions can also face heightened exposure if they are found to facilitate significant transactions for sanctioned parties, a risk Washington increasingly uses to extend the reach of its measures beyond the U.S. financial system.

The FTO designation carries an additional layer of legal jeopardy: providing “material support” becomes a federal crime, and the label can tighten immigration and travel consequences for associated individuals.

Regionally, the move is likely to be welcomed by governments that have long treated the Brotherhood as a security threat, including Egypt and several Gulf states.

It also risks complicating U.S. relations with countries that have tolerated or hosted Brotherhood-linked figures, such as Türkiye and Qatar.

For Lebanon, placing al-Jamaa al-Islamiya in the same category as groups Washington has long sanctioned raises the stakes for a country already navigating financial isolation, fragile politics, and the spillover of regional wars.

Move fast and break things

Markets brace for Supreme Court ruling and Fed remarks

Investors are bracing for two closely timed U.S. events that could reprice risk assets in quick succession: a Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariff authority, followed by remarks from three Federal Reserve officials.

The Supreme Court is expected to release opinions around 10:00 a.m. Eastern time, with markets focused on a case challenging Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs.

Betting markets have leaned toward an outcome that constrains the administration’s position.

Attention then shifts to the Federal Reserve around 12:00 p.m. Eastern, when three Fed presidents are scheduled to speak, according to market calendars.

Their remarks are drawing extra scrutiny because investors are sensitive to any perceived change in the central bank’s reaction function amid renewed political controversy around Chair Jerome Powell.

Over the past week, reporting has described a Justice Department investigation into Powell linked to the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, and prominent financial figures have warned that sustained pressure on central-bank independence could shift inflation expectations and interest rates.

The market logic is simple: if rates and rate expectations move, equities, credit spreads, and the dollar often follow quickly, especially when positioning is crowded and liquidity thins around major headlines.

Under threat worldwide

Washington warns Canberra over hate-speech bill

Markets and diplomats are watching a rare trans-Pacific spat over speech regulation after a senior Trump administration official accused Australia’s Labor government of drafting “deeply perverse” hate-speech laws that could punish critics of extremism while shielding extremists themselves.

Sarah B. Rogers, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy, weighed in on X in response to posts circulating excerpts of the Albanese government’s draft Combatting Antisemitism, Hate and Extremism legislation. Rogers argued that a law that jails someone for calling for the deportation of “jihadist extremists”, while offering protections to extremists who quote scripture, would invert the purpose of counter-extremism policy. In one post she described such an outcome as “deeply perverse”.

The Australian government has presented the package as a crackdown on hatred and extremist organizing, including tougher penalties and a new federal offense for conduct that publicly incites or promotes racial hatred when it would cause a reasonable person in the targeted group to feel intimidated, harassed, or to fear violence. The draft also includes a narrowly framed defense for conduct consisting solely of direct quotations from religious texts for the purpose of religious teaching or discussion, a carve-out ministers say is designed to protect legitimate religious practice.

That exemption has become the political flashpoint.

Normally parliamentary bills would be subject to a committee process lasting months, with ample time for public comment. This bill is being pushed through in 48 hours, with the Australian Federal Police Commissioner (whose police would be responsible for implementing the law) not being consulted on the drafting and only given a draft late at night the day before the draft bill was introduced yesterday.

For Washington, the intervention is notable for its blunt language and for what it suggests about the administration’s approach to allied domestic policy. The Trump administration appears prepared to frame Australia’s hate-speech rules as a free-speech issue, not merely an internal legislative debate.

For Canberra, the episode adds an external complication to a bill already drawing criticism from legal and community groups over definitions, thresholds, the survival of the long standing English common law-derived right to free speech, and how courts would interpret the religious-text defense.

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